The work carried out for Friends of the Earth involved generating two energy scenarios that paint a picture of the UK's economy in transition from a high to a low-carbon system over a 46-year period (2004-2050). The two scenarios are named Static Mobility and Mobility Plus. Under Static Mobility, the number of passenger kilometres travelled in 2050 is similar to the number travelled today. By contrast, under the Mobility Plus scenario, the numbers of passenger kilometres travelled on land and by air are higher than they are today - twice as high for land-based travel, and three times as high for air travel.
The report concludes that we must act with a matter of urgency to curb dramatically our carbon emissions if a 450ppmv future is to be possible. Furthermore, it is an act either of negligence or irresponsibility for policymakers to continually refer to a 2050 target as the key driver in addressing climate change. The real challenge we face is in directing society towards a low-carbon pathway by 2010-12, and thereafter driving down carbon intensity at an unprecedented 9% per annum (6% per annum in terms of absolute carbon emissions), for the following two decades.
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