Tyndall Centre Journal Articles
2024
Li, Wenzhu; Cunningham, Lee; Schultz, David; Mander, Sarah; Gan, Chin Kim; Panteli, Mathaios
Structural Resilience of Pole-mounted Substations Subjected to Flooding: Generalized Framework and a Malaysian Case Study Journal Article
In: ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering, vol. 10, no. 2, 2024, ISSN: 2376-7642.
@article{66cc47f95802444fa35bf123afcc97a5,
title = {Structural Resilience of Pole-mounted Substations Subjected to Flooding: Generalized Framework and a Malaysian Case Study},
author = {Wenzhu Li and Lee Cunningham and David Schultz and Sarah Mander and Chin Kim Gan and Mathaios Panteli},
doi = {10.1061/AJRUA6.RUENG-1143},
issn = {2376-7642},
year = {2024},
date = {2024-01-25},
journal = {ASCE-ASME Journal of Risk and Uncertainty in Engineering Systems, Part A: Civil Engineering},
volume = {10},
number = {2},
publisher = {American Society of Civil Engineers},
abstract = {Substations are vital components of electricity supply, representing a weak point in a power network due to their vulnerability to flood events. Pole-mounted substations can effectively mitigate inundation failures by elevating electrical equipment. However, the supporting structures of such substations often are not designed to withstand flood flows, and thus are prone to structural failure. This paper proposes a generalized framework to quantify the structural failure probabilities of pole-mounted substations and to assess their structural resilience to flooding. The generalized framework was applied to a case-study location in Malaysia, where serious flood events are common and pole-mounted substations abound. The study first identifies and quantifies the flood effects on the poles, including pure hydrodynamic forces, the impact of floating debris, debris damming effects, and scouring. The quantified flood effects then are compared with the structural capacity of a typical pole-mounted substation structure and its foundation, to derive a capacity threshold curve for structural failure. The failure probability is illustrated via fragility curves for different flood depths and risk curves for different flood and wind return periods, to assess further the substation’s structural resilience. The aforementioned curves are based on a stochastic distribution of flood depths and velocities represented by a normalized Weibull function. This approach can be adapted easily to depict flood conditions for any given location. Overall, the results of this paper can help stakeholders, including those designing and managing substation structures, to quantify, assess, and further enhance the flood resilience of power-supply networks.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Guerra, Karla; Welfle, Andrew; Gutiérrez-Alvarez, R; Moreno, Sara; Haro, Pedro
Great Britain's power system with a high penetration of renewable energy: Dataset supporting future scenarios Journal Article
In: Data in Brief, vol. 53, 2024, ISSN: 2352-3409.
@article{73cd4b06512c4468b9107c81c2f4740f,
title = {Great Britain's power system with a high penetration of renewable energy: Dataset supporting future scenarios},
author = {Karla Guerra and Andrew Welfle and R Gutiérrez-Alvarez and Sara Moreno and Pedro Haro},
issn = {2352-3409},
year = {2024},
date = {2024-01-22},
journal = {Data in Brief},
volume = {53},
publisher = {Elsevier BV},
abstract = {The share of variable renewable energy (VRE) is forecasted to increase in the energy sector to meet decarbonization targets and/or reduce their dependence on fossil fuels. The modeling of future power system scenarios is crucial to assess the role of different flexibility options, including low-carbon technologies. The data presented here support the research article “The role of energy storage in Great Britain's future power system: focus on hydrogen and biomass”. These data include updated parameters, inputs, equations, biomass resource potential and biomass demand to balance bio-power and bio-hydrogen requirements. The Future Renewable Energy Performance into the Power System Model (FEPPS), a rule-based model that includes flexibility and stability constraints, has been used, and the hourly results of future scenarios by 2030 and 2040 are provided. Researchers, policymakers, and investors could use this paper as these data provide insights into the role of different technologies (including hydrogen and biomass) in power generation, system flexibility, decarbonization and costs.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Adelekan, Adeyemi; Sharmina, Maria
Collaborative digitally-enabled business models for a circular economy: Sustaining, managing and protecting value in the UK plastics sector Journal Article
In: Journal of Cleaner Production, 2024, ISSN: 0959-6526.
@article{76fa9fd3dd2b43b1882cb51a0ef77630,
title = {Collaborative digitally-enabled business models for a circular economy: Sustaining, managing and protecting value in the UK plastics sector},
author = {Adeyemi Adelekan and Maria Sharmina},
doi = {10.1016/j.jclepro.2024.140770},
issn = {0959-6526},
year = {2024},
date = {2024-01-14},
journal = {Journal of Cleaner Production},
publisher = {Elsevier BV},
abstract = {Designing circular business models requires a combination of systems-level and company-level approaches, highlighting the importance of collaboration. While digital technologies can enable such business models, studies that shed light on the creation of multiple types of value in collaborative and digital technology-driven environments are currently limited. This paper, therefore, aims to explore the process of designing digitally enabled collaborative business models, using the UK plastics sector as a context that has seen a rise in new digital technology applications to plastics mandated by new regulations. To this end, we have worked with fifteen plastics sector organisations as part of an empirical qualitative study aiming to develop collaborative business models for a future plastics circular economy system in the UK. Together with the stakeholders, we have co-designed the value-retention and data-as-a-service business models that could be enabled by digital technologies such as tags. We show that the main stakeholder tensions relate to digital technology investments, access to recyclate and data, and digital asset management. We argue that such tensions might be the key cause of delaying experimentation with circular business models and enacting collaborations at the systems level. We suggest that future research could draw on quantitative data, such as investment costs to test these circular business models, in order to inform the discourse on infrastructural investments for sustainability.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Li, Jingyi; ricardo zepon Tarpani, Raphael; Gallego-Schmid, Alejandro; Stamford, Laurence
Life cycle assessment of repurposing abandoned onshore oil and gas wells for geothermal power generation Journal Article
In: Science of the Total Environment, vol. 907, 2024, ISSN: 0048-9697.
@article{abb1d007b27148afa0df09d2589233c9,
title = {Life cycle assessment of repurposing abandoned onshore oil and gas wells for geothermal power generation},
author = {Jingyi Li and Raphael ricardo zepon Tarpani and Alejandro Gallego-Schmid and Laurence Stamford},
doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2023.167843},
issn = {0048-9697},
year = {2024},
date = {2024-01-10},
journal = {Science of the Total Environment},
volume = {907},
publisher = {Elsevier BV},
abstract = {The annual global growth rate for geothermal power generation between 2021 and 2030 is targeted to be 13 % to meet net-zero emissions by 2050. Repurposing abandoned oil and gas wells (AOGWs) presents a strategic alternative to boost geothermal power by minimising the drilling requirements. This study performed the first cradle-to-grave life cycle assessment to evaluate the environmental performance of three options for geothermal power generation from repurposed oil and gas wells: i) two completely AOGWs (R-GEOdouble); ii) a single completely AOGW (R-GEOsingle); iii) two semi-AOGWs (R-GEOsemi - still in operation but with high water-cut). Their results are then compared with a business-as-usual geothermal power plant (GEObau). All 18 impact categories of the ReCiPe 2016 midpoint methodology plus cumulative energy demand have been analysed in detail, with background data from the Ecoinvent v3.8 database. R-GEOsemi is deemed the most promising repurposed system, exhibiting the lowest values in 11 impact categories. Specifically, R-GEOsemi produces 34 %, 23 %, and 14 % less CO2 eq./kWh when compared to GEObau, R-GEOdouble, and R-GEOsingle, respectively. Conversely, R-GEOdouble performed the worst in 12 impact categories, and the second worst in the rest of the indicators. Meanwhile, GEObau achieved the lowest impacts in nine categories when compared with repurposed systems, indicating the reduction of drilling and construction activities cannot always guarantee the mitigation of all environmental impacts. Sensitivity analyses showed that a longer lifetime could lower environmental impacts, but increasing annual power generation is constrained by site-specific factors. A ‘breakeven’ point analysis revealed that 85 % of repurposed systems' impact indicators could match GEObau if their lifetime reaches 30 years, but this remains uncertain. The findings of this study will be of interest to national and local governments developing future policies aimed at renewable energy transformation from oil and gas industries.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
2023
ricardo zepon Tarpani, Raphael; Gallego-Schmid, Alejandro
Environmental impacts of a digital health and well-being service in elderly living schemes Journal Article
In: Cleaner Environmental Systems, vol. 12, 2023, ISSN: 2666-7894.
@article{f7c76314e6e6486993cad096075a2c8e,
title = {Environmental impacts of a digital health and well-being service in elderly living schemes},
author = {Raphael ricardo zepon Tarpani and Alejandro Gallego-Schmid},
doi = {10.1016/j.cesys.2023.100161},
issn = {2666-7894},
year = {2023},
date = {2023-12-28},
journal = {Cleaner Environmental Systems},
volume = {12},
publisher = {Elsevier BV},
abstract = {Over the past decade, digitalization and digital technologies (DTs) have undergone rapid evolution, transforming how goods and services are produced and consumed in modern societies. Health and well-being sectors have embraced this digital revolution. Besides the economic and social benefits, digitalization can significantly enhance patient diagnostics and prognostics while improving overall service efficiency. To ensure long-term sustainability, it is important to assess and reduce the environmental impacts of digital services. This article examines the life cycle impacts of a digital service implemented in three elderly living schemes (ELSs) located in the United Kingdom (UK). The digital service consists of six electronic devices (EDs) that enable communication between residents, visitors, staff, and offsite monitoring (OM). The equipment is connected using Power over Ethernet (PoE) technology, which includes smart network switch and uninterruptable power supply units. The digital service's global warming potential (GWP) was estimated at 718–741 kg CO2 eq./resident for two of the ELSs and 1509 kg CO2 eq./resident for a third ELS, considering a service period of 20 years. The reason for the significant difference is the greater use of air conditioner (A/C) units to cool down server rooms and fewer residents in the third scheme. The consumption of electricity was found to be the main contributor to most of the environmental impacts. However, in certain categories such as mineral resource scarcity, freshwater eutrophication, and freshwater and marine ecotoxicity potentials, printed circuit boards (PCBs) were the main contributors. A sensitivity analysis considering different national electricity mixes demonstrated that the French electricity grid promoted the reduction in 14 impact categories, whereas the German, Italian, Spanish and Japanese grids increased on average impacts on most categories. Another sensitivity analysis demonstrates that reducing A/C unit running time by 28% resulted in an average impact reduction of 5.5%, becoming equivalent to the results obtained for the French electricity grid. Finally, extending the expected lifespan of electronic equipment by 20% yielded the highest average decrease in environmental impacts (8.1%). While digitalization has the potential to enhance patient healthcare and reduce costs, it is crucial to carefully assess its environmental impacts and implement mitigation strategies to ensure sustainable development in the healthcare sector.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Bullock, Simon; Mason, James; Larkin, Alice
Are the IMO’s new targets for international shipping compatible with the Paris Climate Agreement? Journal Article
In: Climate Policy, 2023, ISSN: 1469-3062.
@article{78d1abd4c24f4540a900a4a2948a0d93,
title = {Are the IMO’s new targets for international shipping compatible with the Paris Climate Agreement?},
author = {Simon Bullock and James Mason and Alice Larkin},
doi = {10.1080/14693062.2023.2293081},
issn = {1469-3062},
year = {2023},
date = {2023-12-22},
journal = {Climate Policy},
publisher = {Earthscan},
abstract = {International shipping is a major contributor to climate change. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) has jurisdiction over the sector’s efforts to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, and in July 2023 agreed a revised climate change strategy, setting tightened targets for emissions reductions by 2030, 2040 and 2050. In this perspective article, we analyse the remaining carbon budgets available to the international shipping sector, to assess whether these new targets constitute a sufficient contribution to meeting the overarching Paris Agreement goal to limit global heating to 1.5°C. The new strategy sets both “indicative checkpoints” and more ambitious “strive” targets. Both represent a major advance over the previous strategy, however only the “strive” targets are compatible with the 1.5°C limit. The first “strive” target is for 30% reductions by 2030, just seven years away. To meet this goal, it is imperative that the IMO, nation states and the shipping industry act immediately to accelerate deployment of known technologies and operational practices that improve energy efficiency and cut CO2 emissions in the existing fleet.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Guerra, Karla; Welfle, Andrew; Gutiérrez-Alvarez, R; Freer, Muir; Ma, Lin; Haro, Pedro
The role of energy storage in Great Britain's future power system: focus on hydrogen and biomass Journal Article
In: Applied Energy, vol. 357, 2023, ISSN: 0306-2619.
@article{a2c34cbd051a403090459113a867da73,
title = {The role of energy storage in Great Britain's future power system: focus on hydrogen and biomass},
author = {Karla Guerra and Andrew Welfle and R Gutiérrez-Alvarez and Muir Freer and Lin Ma and Pedro Haro},
issn = {0306-2619},
year = {2023},
date = {2023-12-13},
journal = {Applied Energy},
volume = {357},
publisher = {Elsevier BV},
abstract = {The increasing deployment of variable renewable energy (VRE) in the power sector, such as wind and solar photovoltaic, is expected to reduce emissions. However, VRE poses challenges due to their intermittency and variability. The Future Renewable Energy Performance into the Power System Model (FEPPS) is used to analyse VRE penetration in Great Britain's (GB) power system, resulting in VRE shares of around 65%, far from over 80% forecasted by 2030 and 2040 due to flexibility and stability constraints. The incorporation of new power generation and energy storage technologies is also analysed, including the role of biomass and hydrogen as low-carbon fuel options. Hydrogen is assumed to be produced from the curtailment of VRE and biomass. Between 6.57 and 283 Mt. of biomass would be required to balance bio‑hydrogen requirements by 2040; therefore, hydrogen production would depend on technology prioritisation. Power generation from hydrogen technologies (fuel cells and turbines) has a significant role in power system decarbonisation, with hydrogen turbines meeting up to ∼10% of annual electricity demand. In contrast, generation from batteries, adiabatic compressed air energy storage and natural gas turbines is not significant. Moreover, between 7.7 and 9.7 TWh of hydrogen storage would be needed, and there is substantial potential for salt cavern storage in GB, providing many 100s TWh. Finally, incorporating new generation and storage technologies relies on levelized cost of electricity (LCOE) reductions of 31% and 13% by 2030 and 2040, respectively, to keep the power sector on track towards decarbonisation.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Brainard, Julii; Jones, Natalia R.; Swindells, Isabel Catalina; Archer, Elizabeth J.; Kolyva, Anastasia; Letley, Charlotte; Pond, Katharine; Lake, Iain R.; Hunter, Paul R.
Effectiveness of filtering or decontaminating air to reduce or prevent respiratory infections: A systematic review Journal Article
In: Preventive Medicine, vol. 177, 2023, ISSN: 0091-7435, (Funding information: ICS, IRL, PRH, JB and EJA were funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit (NIHR HPRU) in Emergency Preparedness and Response at King's College London in partnership with the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), in collaboration with the University of East Anglia. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR, any of our employers, the Department of Health or the UKHSA.).
@article{e024b5739ee74a76b3d2d545e812b430,
title = {Effectiveness of filtering or decontaminating air to reduce or prevent respiratory infections: A systematic review},
author = {Julii Brainard and Natalia R. Jones and Isabel Catalina Swindells and Elizabeth J. Archer and Anastasia Kolyva and Charlotte Letley and Katharine Pond and Iain R. Lake and Paul R. Hunter},
doi = {10.1016/j.ypmed.2023.107774},
issn = {0091-7435},
year = {2023},
date = {2023-12-01},
journal = {Preventive Medicine},
volume = {177},
publisher = {Academic Press Inc.},
abstract = {Installation of technologies to remove or deactivate respiratory pathogens from indoor air is a plausible non-pharmaceutical infectious disease control strategy. Objective: We undertook a systematic review of worldwide observational and experimental studies, published 1970–2022, to synthesise evidence about the effectiveness of suitable indoor air treatment technologies to prevent respiratory or gastrointestinal infections. Methods: We searched for data about infection and symptom outcomes for persons who spent minimum 20 h/week in shared indoor spaces subjected to air treatment strategies hypothesised to change risk of respiratory or gastrointestinal infections or symptoms. Results: Pooled data from 32 included studies suggested no net benefits of air treatment technologies for symptom severity or symptom presence, in absence of confirmed infection. Infection incidence was lower in three cohort studies for persons exposed to high efficiency particulate air filtration (RR 0.4, 95%CI 0.28–0.58, p < 0.001) and in one cohort study that combined ionisers with electrostatic nano filtration (RR 0.08, 95%CI 0.01–0.6},
note = {Funding information: ICS, IRL, PRH, JB and EJA were funded by the National Institute for Health Research Health Protection Research Unit (NIHR HPRU) in Emergency Preparedness and Response at King's College London in partnership with the UK Health Security Agency (UKHSA), in collaboration with the University of East Anglia. The views expressed are those of the authors and not necessarily those of the NHS, the NIHR, any of our employers, the Department of Health or the UKHSA.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Ghanem, Samar; Ferrini, Silvia; Maria, Corrado Di
In: World Development, vol. 172, 2023, ISSN: 0305-750X, (Acknowledgement: Samar Ghanem acknowledges support by Funds for Women Graduate (FfWG) of the British Federation of Women Graduates (BFWG).).
@article{8157ab33565b41a8bd71aab8053e3ca1,
title = {Air pollution and willingness to pay for health risk reductions in Egypt: A contingent valuation survey of Greater Cairo and Alexandria households},
author = {Samar Ghanem and Silvia Ferrini and Corrado Di Maria},
doi = {10.1016/j.worlddev.2023.106373},
issn = {0305-750X},
year = {2023},
date = {2023-12-01},
journal = {World Development},
volume = {172},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {Egypt ranks first worldwide for the number of deaths attributable to PM2.5 air pollution, yet the economic value of improved air quality and the value of reducing mortality risk due to industrial air pollution has never been evaluated using primary data for Egypt. In this paper, we fill this gap focusing on the Greater Cairo and Alexandria metropolitan areas, where more than 80 percent of the country’s industrial activities take place. We find that 73% of the 1051 surveyed households are supportive of improved air quality strategy and a reduction by 50 percent from current level of pollution is valued between 212 and 302 LE per month (13.5–19.3US$). The health risk reduction is measured with Value of Statistical Life (VSL) measures that range between 3.81 and 7.0 million LE (242,675–446,000US$). The results confirm that residents are sensitive to environmental air quality levels. Furthermore, when provided with information about the health consequences of pollution, survey respondents increased both their level of support for the policy, and their Willingness to Pay for it.},
note = {Acknowledgement: Samar Ghanem acknowledges support by Funds for Women Graduate (FfWG) of the British Federation of Women Graduates (BFWG).},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Adcock, Karina E.; Pickers, Penelope A.; Manning, Andrew C.; Forster, Grant L.; Fleming, Leigh S.; Barningham, Thomas; Wilson, Philip A.; Kozlova, Elena A.; Hewitt, Marica; Etchells, Alex J.; Macdonald, Andy J.
12 years of continuous atmospheric O2, CO2 and APO data from Weybourne Atmospheric Observatory in the United Kingdom Journal Article
In: Earth System Science Data, vol. 15, no. 11, pp. 5183–5206, 2023, ISSN: 1866-3508, (Funding information: Atmospheric O2 and CO2 measurements at WAO were funded by the U.K. Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) (grant nos. NE/C002504/1, NE/I013342/1, NE/I02934X/1, QUEST010005, NE/N016238/1, and NE/R011532/1), and by the EU FP6 Integrated Project CarboOcean (grant no. 511176 GOCE). The WAO atmospheric O2 and CO2 measurements have also been supported by the National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS). Philip A. Wilson was supported by a NERC PhD studentship (grant no. NE/F005733/1) from 2008 to 2012. Philip A. Wilson was supported by a NERC PhD studentship (grant no. NE/K500896/1) from 2012 to 2016. Thomas Barningham was supported by a NERC PhD studentship (grant no. NE/L50158X/1) from 2014 to 2018. Leigh S. Fleming was supported by a NERC PhD studentship (grant no. NE/L002582/1) from 2018 to 2022. Karina E. Adcock and Penelope A. Pickers received funding from the NERC project DARE-UK (grant no. NE/S004521/1). Penelope A. Pickers and Andrew C. Manning received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme (grant no. 776186). Karina E. Adcock, Penelope A. Pickers and Andrew C. Manning received funding from European Union's Horizon Europe Research and Innovation programme under HORIZON-CL5-2022-D1-02 (grant no. 101081430 – PARIS).).
@article{26b9eac81ef845adae499418373982eb,
title = {12 years of continuous atmospheric O2, CO2 and APO data from Weybourne Atmospheric Observatory in the United Kingdom},
author = {Karina E. Adcock and Penelope A. Pickers and Andrew C. Manning and Grant L. Forster and Leigh S. Fleming and Thomas Barningham and Philip A. Wilson and Elena A. Kozlova and Marica Hewitt and Alex J. Etchells and Andy J. Macdonald},
doi = {10.5194/essd-2023-129},
issn = {1866-3508},
year = {2023},
date = {2023-11-28},
journal = {Earth System Science Data},
volume = {15},
number = {11},
pages = {5183–5206},
publisher = {Copernicus Publications},
address = {Germany},
institution = {Copernicus Publications},
series = {Earth System Science Data Discussions},
abstract = {We present analyses of a 12-year time series of continuous atmospheric measurements of O2 and CO2 at the Weybourne Atmospheric Observatory in the United Kingdom. These measurements are combined into the term Atmospheric Potential Oxygen (APO), a tracer that is conservative with respect to terrestrial biosphere processes. The CO2, O2 and APO datasets discussed are hourly averages between May 2010 and December 2021. We include details of our measurement system and calibration procedures, and describe the main long-term and seasonal features of the time series. The 2-minute repeatability of the measurement system is approximately ±3 per meg for O2 and approximately ±0.005 ppm for CO2. The time series shows average long-term trends of 2.40 ppm yr-1 (2.38 to 2.42) for CO2, -24.0 per meg yr-1 for O2 (-24.3 to -23.8) and -11.4 per meg yr-1 (-11.7 to -11.3) for APO, over the 12-year period. The average seasonal cycle peak-to-peak amplitudes are 16 ppm for CO2, 134 per meg for O2, and 68 per meg for APO. The diurnal cycles of CO2 and O2 vary considerably between seasons. The datasets are publicly available at https://doi.org/10.18160/Z0GF-MCWH (Adcock et al., 2023) and have many current and potential scientific applications in constraining carbon cycle processes, such as investigating air-sea exchange of CO2 and O2, and top-down quantification of fossil fuel CO2.},
note = {Funding information: Atmospheric O2 and CO2 measurements at WAO were funded by the U.K. Natural Environment Research Council (NERC) (grant nos. NE/C002504/1, NE/I013342/1, NE/I02934X/1, QUEST010005, NE/N016238/1, and NE/R011532/1), and by the EU FP6 Integrated Project CarboOcean (grant no. 511176 GOCE). The WAO atmospheric O2 and CO2 measurements have also been supported by the National Centre for Atmospheric Science (NCAS). Philip A. Wilson was supported by a NERC PhD studentship (grant no. NE/F005733/1) from 2008 to 2012. Philip A. Wilson was supported by a NERC PhD studentship (grant no. NE/K500896/1) from 2012 to 2016. Thomas Barningham was supported by a NERC PhD studentship (grant no. NE/L50158X/1) from 2014 to 2018. Leigh S. Fleming was supported by a NERC PhD studentship (grant no. NE/L002582/1) from 2018 to 2022. Karina E. Adcock and Penelope A. Pickers received funding from the NERC project DARE-UK (grant no. NE/S004521/1). Penelope A. Pickers and Andrew C. Manning received funding from the European Union's Horizon 2020 Research and Innovation Programme (grant no. 776186). Karina E. Adcock, Penelope A. Pickers and Andrew C. Manning received funding from European Union's Horizon Europe Research and Innovation programme under HORIZON-CL5-2022-D1-02 (grant no. 101081430 – PARIS).},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Lee, Susan; Freer, Muir; Wood, Ruth; Edelenbosch, O.; Sharmina, M.; van Vuuren, D.; Wilson, C.
From Future Diets To Dishes: Communicating Dietary Shift Associated With A 1.5°C Scenario For Brazil, China, Sweden And The UK Journal Article
In: Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems, vol. 7, 2023, ISSN: 2571-581X.
@article{210e83a750134c7791f7b42e1ac6f648,
title = {From Future Diets To Dishes: Communicating Dietary Shift Associated With A 1.5°C Scenario For Brazil, China, Sweden And The UK},
author = {Susan Lee and Muir Freer and Ruth Wood and O. Edelenbosch and M. Sharmina and D. van Vuuren and C. Wilson},
doi = {10.3389/fsufs.2023.1266708},
issn = {2571-581X},
year = {2023},
date = {2023-11-27},
journal = {Frontiers in Sustainable Food Systems},
volume = {7},
publisher = {Frontiers Media S. A.},
abstract = {The global food system faces mounting challenges due to a growing population, increased demand for meat protein, and a shifting climate. Reducing meat consumption and transitioning to plant-based diets have been proposed to lower greenhouse gas emissions. Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) are crucial in understanding the magnitude of changes required to achieve greenhouse gas emission reductions consistent with limiting global warming to 1.5°C. However, interpreting the outputs of these models related to dietary change can be challenging for professionals in diet and nutrition. In this analysis, outputs from the Integrated Assessment Model, IMAGE, are employed to develop more salientinformation on the potential dietary shifts and dish compositions that are consistent with limiting global temperature increases. This is accomplished by creating visualisations of future dishes and emphasising the proportions of meat- and plant-based ingredients within future diets and dishes. This analysis applied the DDDI (Diets, Dishes, Dish Ingredients) communication framework to visualisethese outputs. This study demonstrates how the scenario outputs from IMAGE can be communicated more accessibly and used to convert traditional IAM outputs into a more relevant set of information for a wider audience beyond academia concerning potential future food changes needed to comply with the Paris Agreement. Many countries use dietary guidelines to communicate dietary changes, and the visual charts and figures presented in this research can more effectively convey the appearance of a low greenhouse gas diet.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Harrington, Tomás; Narain, Nivedita; Rao, Nitya; Rengalakshmi, Raj; Sogani, Reetu; Chakraborty, Shuvajit; Upadhyay, Astha
In: Journal of Social and Economic Development, 2023, ISSN: 0972-5792, (Funding information: The research leading to these results received funding from the UK Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) under Grant Agreement Reference No. BB/P027970/1, Project Title: ‘Transforming India’s Green Revolution by Research and Empowerment for Sustainable food Supplies’ (Project Acronym: TIGR2ESS). The authors collected the data from the study sites and had the full consent of all participants.).
@article{77f3a5f919c3411296dfeb272b1aab05,
title = {A needs-based approach to promoting gender equity and inclusivity: Insights from participatory research with farmer-producer organisations (FPOs)},
author = {Tomás Harrington and Nivedita Narain and Nitya Rao and Raj Rengalakshmi and Reetu Sogani and Shuvajit Chakraborty and Astha Upadhyay},
doi = {10.1007/s40847-023-00280-x},
issn = {0972-5792},
year = {2023},
date = {2023-11-23},
journal = {Journal of Social and Economic Development},
publisher = {Springer},
abstract = {The farmer-producer organisation (FPO) is an umbrella term used to describe modes of farmer collectivisation in India, i.e., Co-operatives and Companies (FPCs). While women cultivators play a central role in agriculture, their continued marginalisation is reflected in a lack of engagement in FPO activities and governance structures, with only 3% of existing FPOs being female-led ventures. This paper examines the nature of tensions around social inequities—and how such tensions might be addressed in the collective spaces offered by FPOs—using a gender lens. Specifically, in balancing conflicting pressures of economic performance versus inclusion and meeting specific members' needs.Using a participatory research approach, a conceptual framework is developed and applied in three FPOs operating at various stages of development. With a specific focus on gender equity and inclusion, selected cases involved FPOs with >75% female membership and scheduled caste/tribe participation. Qualitative data on societal needs, based on the expectations and experiences of FPO participants, is then analysed to better understand (i) what might promote FPO participation and (ii) how equity and inclusion may be enabled from the ‘bottom-up’.This exploratory study informs the collective action debate with its new and intersectional approach to gender equity and inclusivity. Empirical observations and within- case analyses involving FPOs provide new insights into the functioning of these institutions and nuanced interactions involving their members. Findings suggest that informal micro- producer arrangements (MPAs) or vyavastha, in the FPO pre-registration phase, are well positioned to act as spatial agents for establishing ethical norms as FPOs collectivise and grow. In terms of promoting social objectives and evaluating FPOs operating in different stages, a set of guiding principles are proposed with follow-on implications for policy.},
note = {Funding information: The research leading to these results received funding from the UK Biotechnology and Biological Sciences Research Council (BBSRC) under Grant Agreement Reference No. BB/P027970/1, Project Title: ‘Transforming India’s Green Revolution by Research and Empowerment for Sustainable food Supplies’ (Project Acronym: TIGR2ESS). The authors collected the data from the study sites and had the full consent of all participants.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Ahamed, Ashiq; Huang, Peng; Young, Joshua; Schmid, Alejandro Gallego; Price, Richard; Shaver, Michael P.
Technical and environmental assessment of end-of-life scenarios for plastic packaging with electronic tags Journal Article
In: Resources, Conservation and Recycling, 2023, ISSN: 0921-3449.
@article{ba4cfef4a8704f059a426bc448092eec,
title = {Technical and environmental assessment of end-of-life scenarios for plastic packaging with electronic tags},
author = {Ashiq Ahamed and Peng Huang and Joshua Young and Alejandro Gallego Schmid and Richard Price and Michael P. Shaver},
issn = {0921-3449},
year = {2023},
date = {2023-11-21},
journal = {Resources, Conservation and Recycling},
publisher = {Elsevier BV},
abstract = {The end-of-life management of plastics is challenging, especially when inefficient sorting can limit the quality of recycling streams. Radio frequency identification device (RFID) tags can add value to packaging by assisting with post-collection sorting and end-of-life management. We conducted, for the first time, a technical and environmental (LCA) evaluation of plastic packaging with RFID for different end-of-life scenarios, including mechanical recycling (extrusion), chemical recycling (depolymerisation), and energy-from-waste. The recycling process and plastic quality were unaffected by the RFID, although tag particulates can be transferred to the recyclate. LCA results indicated that mechanical recycling of the plastic with either energy-from-waste treatment (Scenario 1) or chemical recycling (Scenario 3) of the RFID is superior to chemical recycling of the plastic and RFID (Scenario 2) among all the impact categories except stratospheric ozone depletion potential. For example, the global warming potential of Scenario 2 (223.63 gCO2e) was determined to be more than twice than that of the Scenarios 1 and 3 (111.04 and 111.78 gCO2e, respectively). However, as per sensitivity analysis, with further advancements particularly in catalyst development and energy mix, chemical recycling can be a potential solution as it ensures the highest recyclate quality and facilitates the longest retention of the material value. The growing application of RFID tags in consumer goods makes the technical and environmental investigation of its effects on the end-of-life management paramount.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Rao, Nitya; Djohari, Natalie
Both visible and invisible: Women, risk-taking and the expansion of fisheries technologies in South India Journal Article
In: Gender, Technology and Development, 2023, ISSN: 0971-8524, (Acknowledgements: The authors would like to thank Dr. R. Manimohan and Ms. Kohila Shenbagam for support with data collection and transcription. We are also grateful to The Norwegian Research Council and the Economic and Social Research Council, UK, for funding the research on which this paper is based. Finally, our sincere thanks are due to the women who shared their stories with us.).
@article{c043090c18974616868b83db73e527ca,
title = {Both visible and invisible: Women, risk-taking and the expansion of fisheries technologies in South India},
author = {Nitya Rao and Natalie Djohari},
doi = {10.1080/09718524.2023.2264526},
issn = {0971-8524},
year = {2023},
date = {2023-11-16},
journal = {Gender, Technology and Development},
publisher = {Taylor and Francis},
abstract = {Technological innovations in fisheries have generally been seen to exclude women, exacerbating both their economic marginalization and lack of political voice. Such a view however ignores the complexities underpinning the interface between technologies and social relationships, in particular, those of gender. In this article, we explore the impact of ring seine expansion in Cuddalore, a costal district of Tamil Nadu on the east coast of southern India, through the experiences of women fish auctioneers. We argue that women’s contributions to the fisheries sector as auctioneers serves to both sustain and finance the expansion of the ring seine technology and does not just play a supportive, buffering role for household survival. The profitability of auctioneer work has transformed these women into the primary household providers, responsible for securing the intergenerational wellbeing of their extended families. Yet, women are not a homogenous group, hence exploring why some women are able to access these opportunities successfully, negotiating both their entry into the market and financing of their roles, while others are excluded, illuminates how women navigate gendered constraints in relation to technological changes in the sector. We conclude by reflecting on the impact of the recent ring seine ban on the perceived wellbeing and growing indebtedness of these women.},
note = {Acknowledgements: The authors would like to thank Dr. R. Manimohan and Ms. Kohila Shenbagam for support with data collection and transcription. We are also grateful to The Norwegian Research Council and the Economic and Social Research Council, UK, for funding the research on which this paper is based. Finally, our sincere thanks are due to the women who shared their stories with us.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Magnan, Alexandre K.; Bell, Robert; Duvat, Virginie K. E.; Ford, James D.; Garschagen, Matthias; Haasnoot, Marjolijn; Lacambra, Carmen; Losada, Iñigo J.; Mach, Katharine J.; Noblet, Mélinda; Parthasaranthy, Devanathan; Sano, Marcello; Vincent, Katharine; Anisimov, Ariadna; Hanson, Susan; Malmström, Alexandra; Nicholls, Robert J.; Winter, Gundula
Status of global coastal adaptation Journal Article
In: Nature Climate Change, vol. 13, no. 11, pp. 1213–1221, 2023, ISSN: 1758-678X.
@article{f993b5a7870e4665bb27323a3577ca18,
title = {Status of global coastal adaptation},
author = {Alexandre K. Magnan and Robert Bell and Virginie K. E. Duvat and James D. Ford and Matthias Garschagen and Marjolijn Haasnoot and Carmen Lacambra and Iñigo J. Losada and Katharine J. Mach and Mélinda Noblet and Devanathan Parthasaranthy and Marcello Sano and Katharine Vincent and Ariadna Anisimov and Susan Hanson and Alexandra Malmström and Robert J. Nicholls and Gundula Winter},
doi = {10.1038/s41558-023-01834-x},
issn = {1758-678X},
year = {2023},
date = {2023-11-01},
urldate = {2023-11-01},
journal = {Nature Climate Change},
volume = {13},
number = {11},
pages = {1213–1221},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
abstract = {The state of progress towards climate adaptation is currently unclear. Here we apply a structured expert judgement to assess multiple dimensions shaping adaptation (equally weighted): risk knowledge, planning, action, capacities, evidence on risk reduction, long-term pathway strategies. We apply this approach to 61 local coastal case studies clustered into four urban and rural archetypes to develop a locally informed perspective on the state of global coastal adaptation. We show with medium confidence that today’s global coastal adaptation is halfway to the full adaptation potential. Urban archetypes generally score higher than rural ones (with a wide spread of local situations), adaptation efforts are unbalanced across the assessment dimensions and strategizing for long-term pathways remains limited. The results provide a multi-dimensional and locally grounded assessment of global coastal adaptation and lay new foundations for international climate negotiations by showing that there is room to refine global adaptation targets and identify priorities transcending development levels.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Brainard, Julii; Lake, Iain R.; Morbey, Roger A.; Jones, Natalia R.; Elliot, Alex J.; Hunter, Paul R.
Comparison of surveillance systems for monitoring COVID-19 in England: A retrospective observational study Journal Article
In: Lancet Public Health, vol. 8, no. 11, pp. E850–E858, 2023, ISSN: 2468-2667.
@article{52dd64fa4d7343499adf3f3c3786bed3,
title = {Comparison of surveillance systems for monitoring COVID-19 in England: A retrospective observational study},
author = {Julii Brainard and Iain R. Lake and Roger A. Morbey and Natalia R. Jones and Alex J. Elliot and Paul R. Hunter},
doi = {10.1016/S2468-2667(23)00219-0},
issn = {2468-2667},
year = {2023},
date = {2023-11-01},
journal = {Lancet Public Health},
volume = {8},
number = {11},
pages = {E850–E858},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {Background: During the COVID-19 pandemic, cases were tracked using multiple surveillance systems. Some systems were completely novel, and others incorporated multiple data streams to estimate case incidence and prevalence. How well these different surveillance systems worked as epidemic indicators is unclear, which has implications for future disease surveillance and outbreak management. The aim of this study was to compare case counts, prevalence and incidence, timeliness, and comprehensiveness of different COVID-19 surveillance systems in England. Methods: For this retrospective observational study of COVID-19 surveillance systems in England, data from 12 surveillance systems were extracted from publicly available sources (Jan 1, 2020–Nov 30, 2021). The main outcomes were correlations between different indicators of COVID-19 incidence or prevalence. These data were integrated as daily time-series and comparisons undertaken using Spearman correlation between candidate alternatives and the most timely (updated daily, clinical case register) and the least biased (from comprehensive household sampling) COVID-19 epidemic indicators, with comparisons focused on the period of Sept 1, 2020–Nov 30, 2021. Findings: Spearman statistic correlations during the full focus period between the least biased indicator (from household surveys) and other epidemic indicator time-series were 0·94 (95% CI 0·92 to 0·95; clinical cases, the most timely indicator), 0·92 (0·90 to 0·94; estimates of incidence generated after incorporating information about self-reported case status on the ZoeApp, which is a digital app), 0·67 (95% CI 0·60 to 0·73, emergency department attendances), 0·64 (95% CI 0·60 to 0·68, NHS 111 website visits), 0·63 (95% CI 0·56 to 0·69, wastewater viral genome concentrations), 0·60 (95% CI 0·52 to 0·66, admissions to hospital with positive COVID-19 status), 0·45 (95% CI 0·36 to 0·52, NHS 111 calls), 0·08 (95% CI –0·03 to 0·18, Google search rank for “covid”), –0·04 (95% CI –0·12 to 0·05, in-hours consultations with general practitioners), and –0·37 (95% CI –0·46 to –0·28, Google search rank for “coronavirus”). Time lags (–14 to +14 days) did not markedly improve these rho statistics. Clinical cases (the most timely indicator) captured a more consistent proportion of cases than the self-report digital app did. Interpretation: A suite of monitoring systems is useful. The household survey system was the most comprehensive and least biased epidemic monitor, but not very timely. Data from laboratory testing, the self-reporting digital app, and attendances to emergency departments were comparatively useful, fairly accurate, and timely epidemic trackers. Funding: National Institute for Health and Care Research Health Protection Research Unit in Emergency Preparedness and Response, a partnership between the UK Health Security Agency, King's College London, and the University of East Anglia.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Kenny, John; Langsæther, Peter Egge
Environmentalism as an independent dimension of political preferences Journal Article
In: European Journal of Political Research, vol. 62, no. 4, pp. 1031–1053, 2023, ISSN: 0304-4130.
@article{53f658d1f8434bb0855ed44ef2dcddd6,
title = {Environmentalism as an independent dimension of political preferences},
author = {John Kenny and Peter Egge Langsæther},
doi = {10.1111/1475-6765.12549},
issn = {0304-4130},
year = {2023},
date = {2023-11-01},
journal = {European Journal of Political Research},
volume = {62},
number = {4},
pages = {1031–1053},
publisher = {Wiley},
abstract = {Environmental issues are an important aspect of party competition and voters’ political preferences. Yet political behaviour research often considers environmental attitudes as a component of a broader ‘second-dimension’ and either subsumes it into this or omits it. Using data from the fifth wave of the European Values Study, we demonstrate through factor analysis that environmentalism loads as a separate dimension across Western Europe, that environmentalism has somewhat different social predictors and that it has important associations with party preference that differ from those of other second dimension issues. Our findings have crucial implications. Firstly, not accounting for environmentalism in studies of political behaviour misses an important part of the picture. Secondly, subsuming environmentalism into a broader ‘cultural’ dimension may lead to incomplete conclusions about both social predictors and the electoral consequences of political attitudes and values. Thus, allowing for a separate environmental dimension opens up novel perspectives on political representation in Western democracies.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Kenny, John; Heath, Anthony; Richards, Lindsay
Fuzzy frontiers? Testing the fluidity of national, partisan and Brexit identities in the aftermath of the 2016 referendum Journal Article
In: Political Studies, vol. 71, no. 4, pp. 959–983, 2023, ISSN: 0032-3217.
@article{456db63147d8465cbec7fe7e89e76d49,
title = {Fuzzy frontiers? Testing the fluidity of national, partisan and Brexit identities in the aftermath of the 2016 referendum},
author = {John Kenny and Anthony Heath and Lindsay Richards},
doi = {10.1177/00323217211050001},
issn = {0032-3217},
year = {2023},
date = {2023-11-01},
journal = {Political Studies},
volume = {71},
number = {4},
pages = {959–983},
publisher = {Wiley},
abstract = {British and English national identities have long been considered to have porous boundaries whereby English individuals consider the terms more or less interchangeable. However, there is no empirical evidence to demonstrate whether primary feelings of either Britishness or Englishness are highly fluid within-individuals or whether individuals are consistent in their perceptions of their British or English identity. This is especially relevant in the post-Brexit referendum context where national identity is highly correlated with Brexit attitudes. Using panel data, we demonstrate that there is a notable degree of fluidity between identifying as British or English. This is higher than the fluidity between other national identities in the UK as well as more fluid than moving between any partisan or EU referendum identities. Remainers are more fluid than Leavers in their Englishness, whereas they are similar in the fluidity of their Britishness.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Geese, Lucas
Does descriptive representation narrow the immigrant gap in turnout? A comparative study across 11 Western European democracies Journal Article
In: Political Studies, vol. 71, no. 4, pp. 1277–1297, 2023, ISSN: 0032-3217.
@article{83266c05946d415faafd7d31a5f3c081,
title = {Does descriptive representation narrow the immigrant gap in turnout? A comparative study across 11 Western European democracies},
author = {Lucas Geese},
doi = {10.1177/00323217211067129},
issn = {0032-3217},
year = {2023},
date = {2023-11-01},
journal = {Political Studies},
volume = {71},
number = {4},
pages = {1277–1297},
publisher = {Wiley},
abstract = {The political representation of citizens of immigrant origin in Western Europe has received much attention in recent years’ political science research. While existing research has advanced our understanding of the drivers of citizens of immigrant origins’ descriptive representation, a lot less is known about its consequences for citizens of immigrant origins’ electoral participation. This article intends to address this gap in the literature by conducting the first cross-country comparative study of whether migrant-specific descriptive representation can attenuate turnout gaps between citizens of immigrant origin and native-origin citizens in 11 Western European democracies. Linking data on migrant-specific descriptive representation in national parliaments with survey data provided by the European Social Survey, results suggest that turnout gaps tend to be lower in countries where descriptive representation is high. However, this relationship is contingent upon citizens of immigrant origin who consider themselves to be in an ethnic minority position, in which they frequently experience discrimination. By contrast, there is no evidence that descriptive representation matters for turnout levels of non-marginalised citizens of immigrant origin. The study sheds light on the widely overlooked link between descriptive representation and the immigrant gap in turnout levels and opens up several avenues for future research.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Valero, Diana; Cook, Jess; Lee, Angus; Browne, Alison L; Ellis, Rowan; Hoolohan, Claire; Pancholi, Vidya Sagar
Addressing Water Poverty Under Climate Crisis: Implications for Social Policy Journal Article
In: Social Policy and Society, vol. 22, no. 4, pp. 747–762, 2023, ISSN: 1474-7464.
@article{00f2fcb415ad49ada23c8c9580cb3ff9,
title = {Addressing Water Poverty Under Climate Crisis: Implications for Social Policy},
author = {Diana Valero and Jess Cook and Angus Lee and Alison L Browne and Rowan Ellis and Claire Hoolohan and Vidya Sagar Pancholi},
doi = {10.1017/S1474746423000258},
issn = {1474-7464},
year = {2023},
date = {2023-10-20},
journal = {Social Policy and Society},
volume = {22},
number = {4},
pages = {747–762},
publisher = {Cambridge University Press},
abstract = {Access to safe, clean and affordable water is a basic human right and a global goal towards which climate change poses new challenges that heavily impact the health and wellbeing of people across the globe and exacerbate or create new inequalities. These challenges are shaped by a number of geographical and social conditions that, apart from the risks of weather-driven impacts on water, include water governance and management arrangements in place, including pricing tariffs, and the interplay of social and economic inequalities. Building on examples from Australia, Scotland and England and Wales that illustrate access to water in different types of water provision systems, and regarding to aspects of access, quality and affordability, this paper explores the types of challenges related to water poverty in the context of climate crisis and reflects on the multiple dimensions of water poverty oriented social policy at the interplay of climate change associated risks.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Oliveira, Gabriel; Mataveli, Guilherme; Stark, Scott C.; Jones, Matthew W.; Carmenta, Rachel; Brunsell, Nathanial A.; Santos, Celso A. G.; Junior, Carlos A. Silva; Cunha, Helinilza F. A.; Cunha, Alan C.; Santos, Carlos A. C.; Stewart, Hannah; Fuchs, Vanessa Boanada; Hellenkamp, Skye; Artaxo, Paulo; Alencar, Ane A. C.; Moutinho, Paulo; Shimabukuro, Yosio E.
Increasing wildfires threaten progress on halting deforestation in Brazilian Amazonia Journal Article
In: Nature Ecology & Evolution, 2023, ISSN: 2397-334X.
@article{dfccebd14049486d8ba23f934800857a,
title = {Increasing wildfires threaten progress on halting deforestation in Brazilian Amazonia},
author = {Gabriel Oliveira and Guilherme Mataveli and Scott C. Stark and Matthew W. Jones and Rachel Carmenta and Nathanial A. Brunsell and Celso A. G. Santos and Carlos A. Silva Junior and Helinilza F. A. Cunha and Alan C. Cunha and Carlos A. C. Santos and Hannah Stewart and Vanessa Boanada Fuchs and Skye Hellenkamp and Paulo Artaxo and Ane A. C. Alencar and Paulo Moutinho and Yosio E. Shimabukuro},
doi = {10.1038/s41559-023-02233-3},
issn = {2397-334X},
year = {2023},
date = {2023-10-16},
journal = {Nature Ecology & Evolution},
publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Wilder, Thomas; Zhai, Xiaoming; Munday, David R.; Joshi, Manoj
Constraining an Eddy Energy Dissipation Rate due to Relative Wind Stress for use in Energy Budget-Based Eddy Parameterisations Journal Article
In: Ocean Science, 2023, ISSN: 1812-0784.
@article{0fb8588e561e4b7c98c20a9d558d183f,
title = {Constraining an Eddy Energy Dissipation Rate due to Relative Wind Stress for use in Energy Budget-Based Eddy Parameterisations},
author = {Thomas Wilder and Xiaoming Zhai and David R. Munday and Manoj Joshi},
issn = {1812-0784},
year = {2023},
date = {2023-10-13},
journal = {Ocean Science},
publisher = {European Geosciences Union},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Jones, Aled; Bridle, Sarah; Denby, Katherine; Bhunnoo, Riaz; Morton, Daniel; Stanbrough, Lucy; Coupe, Barnaby; Pilley, Vanessa; Benton, Tim; Falloon, Pete; Matthews, Tom K.; Hasnain, Saher; Heslop-Harrison, John S.; Beard, Simon; Pierce, Julie; Pretty, Jules; Zurek, Monika; Johnstone, Alexandra; Smith, Pete; Gunn, Neil; Watson, Molly; Pope, Edward; Tzachor, Asaf; Douglas, Caitlin; Reynolds, Christian; Ward, Neil; Fredenburgh, Jez; Pettinger, Clare; Quested, Tom; Cordero, Juan Pablo; Mitchell, Clive; Bewick, Carrie; Brown, Cameron; Brown, Christopher; Burgess, Paul J.; Challinor, Andy; Cottrell, Andrew; Crocker, Thomas; George, Thomas; Godfray, Charles J.; Hails, Rosie S.; Ingram, John; Lang, Tim; Lyon, Fergus; Lusher, Simon; MacMillan, Tom; Newton, Sue; Pearson, Simon; Pritchard, Sue; Sanders, Dale; Bellamy, Angelina Sanderson; Steven, Megan; Trickett, Alastair; Voysey, Andrew; Watson, Christine; Whitby, Darren; Whiteside, Kerry
Scoping potential routes to UK civil unrest via the food system: results of a structured expert elicitation Journal Article
In: Sustainability, vol. 15, no. 20, 2023, ISSN: 2071-1050.
@article{c42e5bc913214ad6aaf53675b0d6bfdd,
title = {Scoping potential routes to UK civil unrest via the food system: results of a structured expert elicitation},
author = {Aled Jones and Sarah Bridle and Katherine Denby and Riaz Bhunnoo and Daniel Morton and Lucy Stanbrough and Barnaby Coupe and Vanessa Pilley and Tim Benton and Pete Falloon and Tom K. Matthews and Saher Hasnain and John S. Heslop-Harrison and Simon Beard and Julie Pierce and Jules Pretty and Monika Zurek and Alexandra Johnstone and Pete Smith and Neil Gunn and Molly Watson and Edward Pope and Asaf Tzachor and Caitlin Douglas and Christian Reynolds and Neil Ward and Jez Fredenburgh and Clare Pettinger and Tom Quested and Juan Pablo Cordero and Clive Mitchell and Carrie Bewick and Cameron Brown and Christopher Brown and Paul J. Burgess and Andy Challinor and Andrew Cottrell and Thomas Crocker and Thomas George and Charles J. Godfray and Rosie S. Hails and John Ingram and Tim Lang and Fergus Lyon and Simon Lusher and Tom MacMillan and Sue Newton and Simon Pearson and Sue Pritchard and Dale Sanders and Angelina Sanderson Bellamy and Megan Steven and Alastair Trickett and Andrew Voysey and Christine Watson and Darren Whitby and Kerry Whiteside},
doi = {10.3390/su152014783},
issn = {2071-1050},
year = {2023},
date = {2023-10-12},
journal = {Sustainability},
volume = {15},
number = {20},
publisher = {MDPI AG},
abstract = {We report the results of a structured expert elicitation to identify the most likely types of potential food system disruption scenarios for the UK, focusing on routes to civil unrest. We take a backcasting approach by defining as an end-point a societal event in which 1 in 2000 people have been injured in the UK, which 40% of experts rated as “Possible (20–50%)”, “More likely than not (50–80%)” or “Very likely (>80%)” over the coming decade. Over a timeframe of 50 years, this increased to 80% of experts. The experts considered two food system scenarios and ranked their plausibility of contributing to the given societal scenario. For a timescale of 10 years, the majority identified a food distribution problem as the most likely. Over a timescale of 50 years, the experts were more evenly split between the two scenarios, but over half thought the most likely route to civil unrest would be a lack of total food in the UK. However, the experts stressed that the various causes of food system disruption are interconnected and can create cascading risks, highlighting the importance of a systems approach. We encourage food system stakeholders to use these results in their risk planning and recommend future work to support prevention, preparedness, response and recovery planning.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
D'Exelle, Ben; Munro, Alistair; Verschoor, Arjan
Agricultural investment behaviour and contingency: Experimental evidence from Uganda Journal Article
In: World Development, vol. 173, 2023, ISSN: 0305-750X, (Acknowledgements: The research documented in this paper was financed by ESRC-DFID, UK grant ES/J008893/1. Some of Alistair Munro’s expenses were supported by JSPS, Japan KAKENHI Grant Number 25101002 . Ethical clearance for the study was obtained from the Uganda National Council for Science and Technology (UNCST) with research registration number SS2806, and from the University of East Anglia. We thank Joshua Balungira and his team at The Field Lab for support with the fieldwork and Borja Perez Viana for research assistance. We thank participants at seminars at UEA, ISS (The Hague), University of Manchester, Jawaharlal Nehru University (New Delhi), the Institute of Dalit Studies (New Delhi), and SEEDEC Wageningen for their comments. Data availability: Data will be made available on request.).
@article{89ca4be28eb9465cb11650acfd037d19,
title = {Agricultural investment behaviour and contingency: Experimental evidence from Uganda},
author = {Ben D'Exelle and Alistair Munro and Arjan Verschoor},
doi = {10.1016/j.worlddev.2023.106427},
issn = {0305-750X},
year = {2023},
date = {2023-10-12},
journal = {World Development},
volume = {173},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {Underinvestment in agriculture – a major cause of rural poverty – may be due to difficulties in detecting ‘contingency’, defined as the influence one may exert on the outcome of a decision-making situation. Recently experienced contingency may create a mismatch between perceived and actual contingency in an investment decision-making situation, leading to sub-optimal investment behaviour. To test this, we use an experiment with poor farmers in Uganda used to low levels of contingency, as many factors (e.g., the weather, pests, price fluctuations) obscure the link between farm investment and outcomes. We find that in situations in which some contingency is present, investment levels respond positively to recently experienced contingency. In situations in which no contingency is present (‘non-contingency’), investment responds negatively to recently experienced non-contingency. The findings that perceived contingency influences investment behaviour, and perceived contingency can be readily changed, may inform new behavioural policies to promote agricultural investment.},
note = {Acknowledgements: The research documented in this paper was financed by ESRC-DFID, UK grant ES/J008893/1. Some of Alistair Munro’s expenses were supported by JSPS, Japan KAKENHI Grant Number 25101002 . Ethical clearance for the study was obtained from the Uganda National Council for Science and Technology (UNCST) with research registration number SS2806, and from the University of East Anglia. We thank Joshua Balungira and his team at The Field Lab for support with the fieldwork and Borja Perez Viana for research assistance. We thank participants at seminars at UEA, ISS (The Hague), University of Manchester, Jawaharlal Nehru University (New Delhi), the Institute of Dalit Studies (New Delhi), and SEEDEC Wageningen for their comments. Data availability: Data will be made available on request.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Harmáčková, Zuzana V.; Yoshida, Yuki; Sitas, Nadia; Mannetti, Lelani; Martin, Adrian; Kumar, Ritesh; Berbés-Blázquez, Marta; Collins, Rebecca; Eisenack, Klaus; Guimaraes, Ellen; Heras, María; Nelson, Valerie; Niamir, Aidin; Ravera, Federica; Ruiz-Mallén, Isabel; O'Farrell, Patrick
The role of values in future scenarios: What types of values underpin (un)sustainable and (un)just futures? Journal Article
In: Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability, vol. 64, 2023, ISSN: 1877-3435, (Funding Information: Zuzana Harmáčková’s work was supported by the NPO "Systemic Risk Institute" number LX22NPO5101, funded by European Union — Next Generation EU (Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports, NPO: EXCELES), SustES — Adaptation strategies for sustainable ecosystem services and food security under adverse environmental conditions project (ref. CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_019/0000797), and the project Science in Action: intersecting pathways to the SDGs across scales in the drylands (XPaths), funded by the Swedish Research Council for Sustainable Development — Formas (grant number 2020-00474 ). Yuki Yoshida was supported by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists ( #19K13440 ) and the Climate Change Adaptation Research Program of the National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan. Lelani Mannetti was supported by United States National Science Foundation grant numbers SES-1444755 (Urban Resilience to Extremes Sustainability Research Network) and GCR-1934933 (SETS Convergence Network). Berbés-Blázquez was funded by United States National Science Foundation grant numbers DEB-1832016 and DEB-2224662 (Central Arizona-Phoenix Long-Term Ecological Research Program) and SES-1444755 (Urban Resilience to Extremes Sustainability Research Network). Federica Ravera was supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities through a “Ramón y Cajal” research fellowship (RYC-2018-025958-I). Isabel Ruiz-Mallén was supported by the Spanish State Research Agency through a “Ramón y Cajal” research fellowship (RYC-2015-17676). We would like to sincerely thank our co-authors in the IPBES Values Assessment as well as three anonymous reviewers for their extremely helpful comments and guidance.).
@article{f4f94858d4714a9297fe683f18dc4e27,
title = {The role of values in future scenarios: What types of values underpin (un)sustainable and (un)just futures?},
author = {Zuzana V. Harmáčková and Yuki Yoshida and Nadia Sitas and Lelani Mannetti and Adrian Martin and Ritesh Kumar and Marta Berbés-Blázquez and Rebecca Collins and Klaus Eisenack and Ellen Guimaraes and María Heras and Valerie Nelson and Aidin Niamir and Federica Ravera and Isabel Ruiz-Mallén and Patrick O'Farrell},
doi = {10.1016/j.cosust.2023.101343},
issn = {1877-3435},
year = {2023},
date = {2023-10-01},
journal = {Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability},
volume = {64},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {Values have been recognized as critical leverage points for sustainability transformations. However, there is limited evidence unpacking which types of values are associated with specific types of sustainable and unsustainable futures, as described by future scenarios and other types of futures-related works. This paper builds on a review of 460 future scenarios, visions, and other types of futures-related works in the Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services Values Assessment, synthesizing evidence from academia, private sector, governmental and non-governmental strategies, science-policy reports, and arts-based evidence, to identify the types of values of nature that underlie different archetypes of the future. The results demonstrate that futures related to dystopian scenario archetypes such as Regional Competition, Inequality, and Breakdown are mostly underpinned by deeply individualistic and materialistic values. In contrast, futures with more sustainable and just outcomes, such as Global Sustainable Development and Regional Sustainability, tend to be underpinned by a more balanced combination of plural values of nature, with a dominant focus on nature’s contribution to societal (as opposed to individual) aspects of well-being. Furthermore, the paper identifies research gaps and illustrates the key importance of acknowledging not only people’s specific values directly related to nature, such as instrumental, intrinsic, and relational human-nature values and relationships, but also broad values and worldviews that affect the interactions between nature and society, with resulting impacts on Nature's Contributions to People and opportunities for a good quality of life.},
note = {Funding Information: Zuzana Harmáčková’s work was supported by the NPO "Systemic Risk Institute" number LX22NPO5101, funded by European Union — Next Generation EU (Ministry of Education, Youth and Sports, NPO: EXCELES), SustES — Adaptation strategies for sustainable ecosystem services and food security under adverse environmental conditions project (ref. CZ.02.1.01/0.0/0.0/16_019/0000797), and the project Science in Action: intersecting pathways to the SDGs across scales in the drylands (XPaths), funded by the Swedish Research Council for Sustainable Development — Formas (grant number 2020-00474 ). Yuki Yoshida was supported by the Japan Society for the Promotion of Science Grant-in-Aid for Early-Career Scientists ( #19K13440 ) and the Climate Change Adaptation Research Program of the National Institute for Environmental Studies, Japan. Lelani Mannetti was supported by United States National Science Foundation grant numbers SES-1444755 (Urban Resilience to Extremes Sustainability Research Network) and GCR-1934933 (SETS Convergence Network). Berbés-Blázquez was funded by United States National Science Foundation grant numbers DEB-1832016 and DEB-2224662 (Central Arizona-Phoenix Long-Term Ecological Research Program) and SES-1444755 (Urban Resilience to Extremes Sustainability Research Network). Federica Ravera was supported by the Spanish Ministry of Science, Innovation and Universities through a “Ramón y Cajal” research fellowship (RYC-2018-025958-I). Isabel Ruiz-Mallén was supported by the Spanish State Research Agency through a “Ramón y Cajal” research fellowship (RYC-2015-17676). We would like to sincerely thank our co-authors in the IPBES Values Assessment as well as three anonymous reviewers for their extremely helpful comments and guidance.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}