Regional Greenhouse Gas Emission Inventories and Mitigation Strategies
Tyndall Research Theme 2 - Decarbonising Modern Societies
Project ID - TRS/04
Technical Summary
At present, the national inventory of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions does not lend itself to regional or local disaggregation. This is especially so for emissions of carbon dioxide, the most significant of the greenhouse gases. The research proposed here aims to fill this vacuum by developing a robust methodology for regional GHG emission estimation, and to then use this information to assess regional GHG mitigation strategies. Whilst the North West region would be used as the case-study, the methodology would be developed for applicaton to all the English regions.
Part 1: Production of a Regional Greenhouse Gas Inventory
It is proposed that regionally-specific data on greenhouse gas emissions will be obtained in two ways. Firstly, local-scale data on emissions will be collected from regulated processes (i.e. IPPC). This 'bottom-up' data should identify large CO2 emitters, as well as specialised producers whose operations involve emissions of gases such as HFCs, PFCs and SF6. A large proportion of CO2 emissions will not occur from regulated processes, but rather from transport, the domestic sector and non-IPCC regulated business and public sector operations. In addition, some emissions of N2O and CH4 will occur from non-regulated sites. A regional top-down approach will be used to obtain information on such emissions. Information will be sought from the main electricity and gas supply companies operating in the Region, such as MANWEB, NORWEB and British Gas. Information from the major commercial energy users in the Region would also be required (i.e. those with their own boilers, CHP plants, etc.), where this information is not already collected at a site-specific level through process regulation. To obtain such top-down information at the regional scale will necessitate data being held through confidentiality agreements with the Environment Agency or another third party (such as the Energy Technology Support Unit, ETSU). The aggregate information can then be used in the production of the Regional inventory without threatening commercial confidentality. Emissions from transport will be estimated through analysis of the transport mix and transport patterns in the Region, along with information on the vehicle stock (age, engine sizes, etc.).
Where appropriate, the jointly produced guidelines of the IPCC, OECD and IEA on how to construct an emissions inventory at the national scale will be followed. In addition, we will work closely with the Councils for Climate Protection Programme (CPP) of the Improvement and Development Agency, which is undertaking local greenhouse gas emissions inventories in certain pilot areas (IDEA 2000). If possible, data from a number of years will be obtained to allow analysis of underlying trends. This will enable a robust 'baseline' date to be chosen. It remains uncertain whether a robust regional inventory could be constructed for 1990, the date chosen by the Kyoto Protocol.
Part 2: Uncertainty Analysis
A key objective is to undertake a thorough analysis of the uncertainty surrounding the estimated emissions figures. This will be expressed as plus / minus ranges for each greenhouse gas. The guidelines of the IPCC, OECD and IEA on how to estimate the uncertainty in emissions will be followed. This includes taking account of uncertainty where different methods produce different values, or where a range of input variables can be employed. We may, in addition, use expert judgement on uncertainty where other methods are unavailable. A further aspect of uncertainty that will be explored is how different greenhouse gases should be compared. Conventionally, the approach has been to use Global Warming Potentials (GWPs), but more recently it has been recognised that the scientific basis for GWPs is somewhat circumspect. Alternative methods for comparing gases have been proposed, and we explore which other methods might be appropriate. A comparison of results from different methods will provide an indication of the uncertainty with respect to the overall contribution to global warming of regional greenhouse gas emissions.
Part 3: Trend Analysis and Future Emission Levels
Analysis of trends is important in estimating the pattern of future near-term emissions. Efficiency improvements in cars, and hence CO2 emissions per km, have, for example, shown an incremental improvement over the past few decades. The production of estimates of regional emissions over the next few years (2, 5 and 10 years) will be useful in establishing emission reduction targets. Several different scenarios of regional emissions in the near-term will be devised, using the same conceptual approach as DETR in its Climate Change consultation document (i.e. assuming existing policies, existing policies plus somewhat more ambitious policies, and existing plus more radical 'green' policies - all reflecting regional circumstances). A conceptual innovation here will be to use the Cambridge MDM model of the UK economy - which is broken down into a number of regions - to ensure that the socio-economic scenarios are internally consistent.
Part 4: - Regional Strategies for Greenhouse Gas Mitigation
Regional analysis at the sectoral level will be used to identify the costs and benefits of mitigating emissions on different time scales (2, 5 and 10 years). A range of costs / benefits would have to be considered including: energy savings, sunk capital costs, replacement costs, transaction costs, maintenance savings, etc. The time taken for such data gathering and assessment means that only a few sectors can be considered. This sort of analysis has been done at the global and national scales and, at the other end of the spectrum, at the site-specific scale. It has not, to our knowledge, been conducted at the regional scale in the UK. It would permit a detailed analysis to emerge of the prospects for a particular region of reducing greenhouse gas emissions and of the associated costs and benefits. Clearly, the impacts of the introduction of the Climate Change Levy and of other policies such as the Renewables Obligation, will need to be analysed. The work in this Part would involve conducting some interviews with major energy-using companies in the North West as a form of 'ground truthing'. The research will identify how accurate for the Region are the estimates of costs and benefits of greenhouse mitigation obtained from national and international estimates. The data obtained will be useful for the Environment Agency in providing guidance to firms on the most cost-effective ways of reducing their greenhouse gas emissions.
This research is supported through a Tyndall Research Studentship.
Student: Sebastian Carney
Institution: UMIST
Lead Supervisor: Dr Simon Shackley
Manchester School of Management, UMIST
Dates: April 2001 - March 2004
Collaborating
organisation: Environment Agency North West
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