Sally Brown

@article{e78b8e9870194efb8768193f3ed04e38,

title = {Pathways to sustain atolls under rising sea levels through land claim and island raising},

author = {Sally Brown and Robert J. Nicholls and Alan Bloodworth and Oliver Bragg and Audrey Clauss and Stuart Field and Laura Gibbons and Milda Pladaite and Malcolm Szuplewski and James Watling and Ali Shareef and Zammath Khaleel},

doi = {10.1088/2752-5295/acb4b3},

issn = {2752-5295},

year  = {2023},

date = {2023-02-16},

journal = {Environmental Research: Climate},

volume = {2},

number = {1},

publisher = {IOP Publishing Ltd},

abstract = {Low-lying atoll nations (e.g., the Maldives, Kiribati, Tuvalu, Marshall Islands) are highly vulnerable to climate change, especially sea-level rise. Stringent climate change mitigation will slow but not stop sea-level rise, which will continue for centuries, mandating additional long-term adaptation. At the same time, urbanisation is concentrating population in a few centres, especially around capital islands which creates additional pressure as most atoll nations are ‘land-poor’. This paper demonstrates how structural adaptation using land claim and island raising can be utilised within an adaptation pathway approach to sustain enough islands and land area above rising sea levels to satisfy societal and economic needs over multiple centuries. This approach is illustrated using the Maldives, especially around the capital and its environs (Greater Malé). Raising, expanding and connecting ‘urban’ islands can provide multiple benefits. Significant developments have already occurred in Greater Malé and further developments there and for other urban centres in the Maldives are expected. Migration to urban centres, especially Malé, is widespread and this adaptation approach assumes this trend continues, implying many other islands are depopulated or abandoned. Tourism is core to the Maldives economy and tourist islands require a different ambience to urban islands. They could be sustained with sympathetic soft engineering reinforcing the natural processes that produce atolls. While land advance and island raising provides a technical solution for sealevel rise, any application must also address the additional policy, human, physical, engineering and economic/ financial challenges that are raised. Nonetheless, by aligning adaptation through land advance/raising with existing development trends, atoll nations have the potential to persist and prosper for many centuries even as sea levels inevitably rise. This provides a realistic alternative to widespread assumptions about forced migration and ultimate national abandonment. The lessons here may find wider application to other small island settings and even mainland coasts.},

note = {Data availability statement: No new data was generated in this paper. Model inputs that are freely available and not commercially sensitive can be found in Wadey et al (2017) and Brown et al (2020). The data that support the findings of this study are openly available at the following URL/DOI: https://doi.org/10.1111/jfr3.12567. Funding information: S B and R J N were funded by the European Commission’s Seventh Framework Programme’s collaborative project RISES-AM- (Contract FP7-ENV-2013-two-stage-603396) and the United Kingdom Natural Environment Research Council and United Kingdom Government Department of Business Energy & Industrial Strategy grant ‘ADJUST1.5’, NE/P01495X/1. O B, A C, S F, L G, M P, M S and J W acknowledge funding from the School of Engineering, University of Southampton, where all authors (apart from A S and Z K) were based for the primary study.},

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@article{7da7406929704bbdbbb1a01e369284e3,

title = {Benefits of subsidence control for coastal flooding in China},

author = {Jiayi Fang and Robert J. Nicholls and Sally Brown and Daniel Lincke and Jochen Hinkel and Athanasios T. Vafeidis and Shiqiang Du and Qing Zhao and Min Liu and Peijun Shi},

doi = {10.1038/s41467-022-34525-w},

issn = {2041-1723},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-11-14},

journal = {Nature Communications},

volume = {13},

publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},

abstract = {Land subsidence is impacting large populations in coastal Asia via relative sea-level rise (RSLR). Here we assesses these risks and possible response strategies for China, including estimates of present rates of RSLR, flood exposure and risk to 2050. In 2015, each Chinese coastal resident experienced on average RSLR of 11 to 20 mm/yr. This is 3 to 5 times higher than climate-induced SLR, reflecting that people are concentrated in subsiding locations. In 2050, assuming these subsidence rates continue, land area, population and assets exposed to the 100-year coastal flood event is 20%-39%, 17%-37% and 18%-39% higher than assuming climate change alone, respectively. Realistic subsidence control measures can avoid up to two thirds of this additional growth in exposure, with adaptation required to address the residual. This analysis emphasizes subsidence as a RSLR hazard in China that requires a broad-scale policy response, utilizing subsidence control combined with coastal adaptation.},

note = {Data availability: All datasets used in the production of this paper are available from: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.696911558. Source data are provided with this paper. Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License. Code availability: The DIVA code is available at https://gitlab.com/daniel.lincke.globalclimateforum.org/diva_published. The R code used to produce the numbers, tables and figures is available from: https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.696911558. Source data are provided with this paper. Creative Commons Attribution 4.0 International Public License. Acknowledgements: J.F., S.D. and P.S. were supported by National Key R & D Programme of China (2017YFC1503001), National Natural Science Foundation of China (42001096) and Expertise-Introduction Project for Disciplinary Innovation of Universities: Hazard and Risk Science Base at Beijing Normal University (BP0820003). A.T.V., D.L., J.H., R.J.N. and S.B. were supported by the European Union’s Seventh Programme for Research, Technological Development and Demonstration under grant agreement No. 603396 (RISES-AM project). S.B. undertook most of this work at the University of Southampton, where she remains a visitor. It does not reflect the views or positions of subsequent organisations she moved to. R.J.N., D.L. and J.H. were supported by the PROTECT Project. This project has received funding from the European Union’s Horizon 2020 research and innovation programme under grant agreement number 869304, PROTECT contribution number 42.},

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@article{2e6d6f26582148858cdc775fe25f4743,

title = {A typology of responsibility for coastal flood risk adaptation},

author = {Sien Plank and Sally Brown and Emma L. Thompkins and Robert J. Nicholls},

doi = {10.3389/fmars.2022.954950},

issn = {2296-7745},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-09-23},

journal = {Frontiers in Marine Science},

volume = {9},

publisher = {Frontiers Media S.A.},

abstract = {The management of coastal flood risk is adapting to meet the challenges and increased risks posed by population change as well as by climate change, especially sea level rise. Protection is being targeted to areas where the benefits are highest, while elsewhere there is a shift towards more localized “living with floods” and “resilience” approaches. Such decentralized approaches to flood risk management (FRM) require a diverse range of stakeholder groups to be engaged as “flood risk citizens”. Engagement of households in FRM is central to this process. Despite significant research on stakeholder engagement in coastal and flood risk management, there is less focus on the nature of responsibility in coastal adaptation. There is no framework by which to assess the different types of responsibility in hazard management and adaptation, and little research on the implications of expecting these responsibilities of stakeholder groups. In this paper, we identify five types of responsibility that are embedded throughout the disaster risk reduction cycle of managing coastal flooding. We build this ”typology of responsibility” on existing work on the evolution of stakeholder engagement and stakeholder responsibility relationships in risk management processes, and a dataset of institutional stakeholder interviews and households surveys conducted across three case studies in England, the United Kingdom, in 2018 and 2019. We analyze the interviews using thematic analysis to explore institutional stakeholder perceptions of responsibility in coastal FRM, and analyze the household survey through descriptive and inferential statistics. By developing the first disaster risk reduction focused typology of responsibility for coastal flooding, we provide researchers and decision-makers with a tool to guide their planning and allocation of responsibilities in risk management for floods and other climate-driven hazards.},

note = {Data Availability Statement: All data supporting this study are openly available from the University of Southampton repository at https://doi.org/10.5258/SOTON/D1609 and http://dx.doi.org/10.5258/SOTON/D1608. Funding information: This work was funded through UKRI ESRC ES/W006189/1. The first named author would like to thank the Engineering and Physical Sciences Research Council and the Leverhulme Trust for their funding toward the PhD research on which this paper is based.},

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@article{e65f2b44bd1e45c2a1c3fb666dca6848,

title = {Quantifying risks avoided by limiting global warming to 1.5 or 2°C above pre-industrial levels},

author = {Rachel Warren and Oliver Andrews and Sally Brown and Felipe J. Colón-González and Nicole Forstenhaeusler and David E. H. J. Gernaat and Philip Goodwin and Ian Harris and Helen He and Chris Hope and Desmond Manful and Timothy J. Osborn and Jeff Price and Detlef Vuuren and Rebecca Mary Wright},

doi = {10.1007/s10584-021-03277-9},

issn = {0165-0009},

year  = {2022},

date = {2022-06-29},

urldate = {2022-06-29},

journal = {Climatic Change},

volume = {172},

number = {3-4},

publisher = {Springer},

abstract = {The Paris Agreement aims to constrain global warming to ‘well below 2 °C’ and to ‘pursue efforts’ to limit it to 1.5 °C above pre-industrial levels. We quantify global and regional risk-related metrics associated with these levels of warming that capture climate change–related changes in exposure to water scarcity and heat stress, vector-borne disease, coastal and fluvial flooding and projected impacts on agriculture and the economy, allowing for uncertainties in regional climate projection. Risk-related metrics associated with 2 °C warming, depending on sector, are reduced by 10–44% globally if warming is further reduced to 1.5 °C. Comparing with a baseline in which warming of 3.66 °C occurs by 2100, constraining warming to 1.5 °C reduces these risk indicators globally by 32–85%, and constraining warming to 2 °C reduces them by 26–74%. In percentage terms, avoided risk is highest for fluvial flooding, drought, and heat stress, but in absolute terms risk reduction is greatest for drought. Although water stress decreases in some regions, it is often accompanied by additional exposure to flooding. The magnitude of the percentage of damage avoided is similar to that calculated for avoided global economic risk associated with these same climate change scenarios. We also identify West Africa, India and North America as hotspots of climate change risk in the future.},

note = {Funding: This research leading to these results received funding from the UK Government, Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, as part of the Implications of global warming of 1.5 °C and 2 °C project. OA, YH, JP and RW were also funded by joint UK NERC and UK Government Department of BEIS grant NE/P01495X/1.},

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}

@article{eb56d7ab66274b80abf4c4989b5e51c0,

title = {The UK needs an open data portal dedicated to coastal flood and erosion hazard risk and resilience},

author = {Eli D. Lazarus and Sofia Aldabet and Charlotte E. l. Thompson and Christopher T. Hill and Robert J. Nicholls and Jon R. French and Sally Brown and Emma L. Tompkins and Ivan D. Haigh and Ian H. Townend and Edmund C. Penning-Rowsell},

doi = {10.1139/anc-2020-0023},

issn = {2561-4150},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-09-17},

journal = {Anthropocene Coasts},

volume = {4},

number = {1},

pages = {137–146},

publisher = {Canadian Science Publishing},

abstract = {In the UK, coastal flooding and erosion are two of the primary climate-related hazards to communities, businesses, and infrastructure. To better address the ramifications of those hazards, now and into the future, the UK needs to transform its scattered, fragmented coastal data resources into a systematic, integrated portal for quality-assured, publicly accessible open data. Such a portal would support analyses of coastal risk and resilience by hosting, in addition to data layers for coastal flooding and erosion, a diverse array of spatial datasets for building footprints, infrastructure networks, land use, population, and various socio-economic measures and indicators derived from survey and census data. The portal would facilitate novel combinations of spatial data layers to yield scientifically, societally, and economically beneficial insights into UK coastal systems.},

note = {Funding Information: The authors are grateful for support from the Strategic Priorities Fund UK Climate Resilience Programme through UK Research & Innovation award NE/S016651/1, and a Southampton Marine and Maritime Institute (SMMI) Doctoral Studentship to S.A. Publisher Copyright: © 2021, Canadian Science Publishing. All rights reserved.},

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@article{20d3c75f4f664c91b59174761d2cb675,

title = {Global costs of protecting against sea-level rise at 1.5 to 4.0 °C},

author = {Sally Brown and Katie Jenkins and Philip Goodwin and Daniel Lincke and Athanasios T. Vafeidis and Richard S. J. Tol and Rhosanna Jenkins and Rachel Warren and Robert J. Nicholls and Svetlana Jevrejeva and Agustin Sanchez Arcilla and Ivan D. Haigh},

doi = {10.1007/s10584-021-03130-z},

issn = {0165-0009},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-07-06},

journal = {Climatic Change},

volume = {167},

number = {1-2},

publisher = {Springer},

abstract = {Sea levels will rise, even with stringent climate change mitigation. Mitigation will slow the rate of rise. There is limited knowledge on how the costs of coastal protection vary with alternative global warming levels of 1.5 to 4.0 °C. Analysing six sea-level rise scenarios (0.74 to 1.09 m, 50th percentile) across these warming levels, and five Shared Socioeconomic Pathways, this paper quantifies the economic costs of flooding and protection due to sea-level rise using the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment (DIVA) modelling framework. Results are presented for World Bank income groups and five selected countries from the present to 2100. Annual sea flood damage costs without additional adaptation are more influenced by socio-economic development than sea-level rise, indicating that there are opportunities to control risk with development choices. In contrast, annual sea dike investment costs are more dependent on the magnitude of sea-level rise. In terms of total costs with adaptation, upper middle, low middle and low income groups are projected to have higher relative costs as a proportion of GDP compared with high income groups. If low income countries protected now, flood costs could be reduced after 2050 and beyond. However, without further adaptation, their coasts will experience growing risks and costs leaving them increasingly reliant on emergency response measures. Without mitigation or adaptation, greater inequalities in damage costs between income groups could result. At country level, annual sea flood damage costs without additional adaptation are projected to rapidly increase with approximately 0.2 m of sea-level rise, leaving limited time to plan and adapt.},

keywords = {},

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@article{02b0ec50c36c4d209f714a2a9d14cc26,

title = {A global analysis of subsidence, relative sea-level change and coastal flood exposure},

author = {Robert J. Nicholls and Daniel Lincke and Jochen Hinkel and Sally Brown and Athanasios T. Vafeidis and Benoit Meyssignac and Susan E. Hanson and Jan-ludolf Merkens and Jiayi Fang},

doi = {10.1038/s41558-021-00993-z},

issn = {1758-678X},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-04-01},

journal = {Nature Climate Change},

volume = {11},

number = {4},

pages = {338–342},

publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},

abstract = {Climate-induced sea-level rise and vertical land movements, including natural and human-induced subsidence in sedimentary coastal lowlands, combine to change relative sea levels around the world’s coasts. Although this affects local rates of sea-level rise, assessments of the coastal impacts of subsidence are lacking on a global scale. Here, we quantify global-mean relative sea-level rise to be 2.5 mm yr−1 over the past two decades. However, as coastal inhabitants are preferentially located in subsiding locations, they experience an average relative sea-level rise up to four times faster at 7.8 to 9.9 mm yr−1. These results indicate that the impacts and adaptation needs are much higher than reported global sea-level rise measurements suggest. In particular, human-induced subsidence in and surrounding coastal cities can be rapidly reduced with appropriate policy for groundwater utilization and drainage. Such policy would offer substantial and rapid benefits to reduce growth of coastal flood exposure due to relative sea-level rise.},

note = {Erratum at 10.1038/s41558-021-01064-z},

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}

@article{2ae6b1cf8161461eb5ec8bbcffe50b11,

title = {Managing coastal flood risk to residential properties in England: integrating spatial planning, engineering and insurance},

author = {Sien Plank and Sally Brown and Robert J. Nicholls},

doi = {10.1016/j.ijdrr.2020.101961},

issn = {2212-4209},

year  = {2021},

date = {2021-01-01},

journal = {International Journal of Disaster Risk Reduction},

volume = {52},

publisher = {Elsevier},

abstract = {Flooding is the most damaging natural hazard in England today. Coastal flood risk management aims to reduce the impacts of coastal flooding through adaptation measures including spatial planning, engineered hard and soft interventions, and insurance. Yet there are few reviews which collectively assess these measures. This paper aims to characterise and evaluate coastal flood risk management policy in England across planning, engineering and insurance approaches, focusing on their ability to manage risk to residential properties. An analysis of the literature and government reports reveals that together these management approaches address the different dimensions of flood risk. Nonetheless, the three approaches are legislated and regulated in relative isolation, and in their current formation have contrary implications for existing and future residential developments. There is also further scope to increase the resilience of planning, defence and insurance to social and environmental uncertainties in financing, governance and climate change. We recommend that future research and strategies in coastal flood risk management give greater consideration to multiple flood risk management approaches in conjunction, continuing to expand the integration between planning, engineering and insurance approaches.},

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pubstate = {published},

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@article{1b03eba51ceb48aa950ef32e7c2235b2,

title = {Multi-decadal shoreline change in coastal natural world heritage sites – A global assessment},

author = {Salma Sabour and Sally Brown and Robert J. Nicholls and Ivan D. Haigh and Arjen P. Luijendijk},

doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ab968f},

issn = {1748-9326},

year  = {2020},

date = {2020-10-01},

journal = {Environmental Research Letters},

volume = {15},

number = {10},

publisher = {IOP Publishing Ltd},

abstract = {Natural World Heritage Sites (NWHS), which are of Outstanding Universal Value, are increasingly threatened by natural and anthropogenic pressures. This is especially true for coastal NWHS, which are additionally subject to erosion and flooding. This paper assesses shoreline change from 1984 to 2016 within the boundaries of 67 designated sites, providing a first global consistent assessment of its drivers. It develops a transferable methodology utilising new satellite-derived global shoreline datasets, which are classified based on linearity of change against time and compared with global datasets of geomorphology (topography, land cover, coastal type, and lithology), climate variability and sea-level change. Significant shoreline change is observed on 14% of 52 coastal NWHS shorelines that show the largest recessional and accretive trends (means of -3.4 m yr-1 and 3.5 m yr-1, respectively). These rapid shoreline changes are found in low-lying shorelines (<1 m elevation) composed of unconsolidated sediments in vegetated tidal coastal systems (means of -7.7 m yr-1 and 12.5 m yr-1), and vegetated tidal deltas at the mouth of large river systems (means of -6.9 m yr-1 and 11 m yr-1). Extreme shoreline changes occur as a result of redistribution of sediment driven by a combination of geomorphological conditions with (1) specific natural coastal morphodynamics such as opening of inlets (e.g. Río Plátano Biosphere Reserve) or gradients of alongshore sediment transport (e.g. Namib Sea) and (2) direct or indirect human interferences with natural coastal processes such as sand nourishment (e.g. Wadden Sea) and damming of river sediments upstream of a delta (e.g. Danube Delta). The most stable soft coasts are associated with the protection of coral reef ecosystems (e.g. Great Barrier Reef) which may be degraded/destroyed by climate change or human stress in the future. A positive correlation between shoreline retreat and local relative sea-level change was apparent in the Wadden Sea. However, globally, the effects of contemporary sea-level rise are not apparent for coastal NWHS, but it is a major concern for the future reinforcing the shoreline dynamics already being observed due to other drivers. Hence, future assessments of shoreline change need to account for other drivers of coastal change in addition to sea-level rise projections. In conclusion, extreme multi-decadal linear shoreline trends occur in coastal NWHS and are driven primarily by sediment redistribution. Future exacerbation of these trends may affect heritage values and coastal communities. Thus shoreline change should be considered in future management plans where necessary. This approach provides a consistent method to assess NWHS which can be repeated and help steer future management of these important sites.},

note = {Publisher Copyright: © 2020 The Author(s).},

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@article{394d332500fb4d0c8255ff7a285bda4b,

title = {Coastal flood risks in China through the 21st century – An application of DIVA},

author = {Jiayi Fang and Daniel Lincke and Sally Brown and Robert J. Nicholls and Claudia Wolff and Jan-Ludolf Merkens and Jochen Hinkel and Athanasios T. Vafeidis and Peijun Shi and Min Liu},

doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135311},

issn = {0048-9697},

year  = {2020},

date = {2020-02-20},

journal = {Science of the Total Environment},

volume = {704},

publisher = {Elsevier},

abstract = {China experiences frequent coastal flooding, with nearly US$ 77 billion of direct economic losses and over 7,000 fatalities reported from 1989 to 2014. Flood damages are likely to grow due to climate change induced sea-level rise and increasing exposure if no further adaptation measures are taken. This paper quantifies potential damage and adaptation costs of coastal flooding in China over the 21st Century, including the effects of sea-level rise. It develops and utilises a new, detailed coastal database of China developed within the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment (DIVA) model framework. The refined database provides a more realistic spatial representation of coasts, with more than 2700 coastal segments, covering 28,966 km of coastline. Over 50% of China's coast is artificial, representing defended coast and/or claimed land. Coastal flood damage and adaptation costs for China are assessed for different Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) and Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSP) combinations representing climate change and socio-economic change and two adaptation strategies: no upgrade of currently existing defences and maintaining current protection levels. By 2100, 0.7–20.0 million people may be flooded/yr and US$ 67–3,308 billion damages/yr are projected without upgrade to defences. In contrast, maintaining the current protection level would reduce those numbers to 0.2–0.4 million people flooded/yr and US$ 22–60 billion/yr flood costs by 2100, with protection investment costs of US$ 8–17 billion/yr. In 2100, maintaining current protection levels, dikes costs are two orders of magnitude smaller than flood costs across all scenarios, even without accounting for indirect damages. This research improves on earlier national assessments of China by generating a wider range of projections, based on improved datasets. The information delivered in this study will help governments, policy-makers, insurance companies and local communities in China understand risks and design appropriate strategies to adapt to increasing coastal flood risk in an uncertain world.},

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}

@article{7f476c8ad9bd49a69a31942985df0022,

title = {Land raising as a solution to sea-level rise: an analysis of coastal flooding on an artificial island in the Maldives},

author = {Sally Brown and Matthew P. Wadey and Robert J. Nicholls and Ali Shareef and Zammath Khaleel and Jochen Hinkel and Daniel Lincke and Maurice V. McCabe},

doi = {10.1111/jfr3.12567},

issn = {1753-318X},

year  = {2020},

date = {2020-01-01},

journal = {Journal of Flood Risk Management},

volume = {13},

number = {S1},

publisher = {Wiley},

abstract = {The Maldives (land elevation approximately 1m above mean sea-level) is often associated with the threat of rising sea-levels. Land scarcity due to population pressure is also a major issue. In the late 1990s a new 1.9km^2 2m high artificial island, Hulhumalé was created for urban expansion, including an allowance for sea-level rise. This paper assesses flood exposure through an extreme water level scenario on Hulhumalé taking into account sea-level rise and analyses potential adaptation options to extend island life. Results indicate that overtopping is likely to occur with 0.6±0.2m of SLR, with more severe, widespread flooding with 0.9±0.2m of sea-level rise. If the Paris Agreement goals are met, flooding is not anticipated this century, but under a non-mitigation scenario, flooding could occur by the 2090s. Building seawalls 0.5m, 1.0m and 1.5m high could delay flooding for 0.2m, 0.4m and 0.6m of sea-level rise, respectively. Land raising has been successful in Hulhumalé in reducing flood risk simultaneous to addressing development needs. Whilst new land claim and raising can be cost-effective, raising developed land provides greater challenges, such as timeliness with respect to infrastructure design lives or financial costs. Thus the transferability and long-term benefits of land raising requires further consideration.},

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@article{c63aba8ce7d747ccb0289408874b0201,

title = {The global and regional impacts of climate change under Representative Concentration Pathway forcings and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway socioeconomic scenarios},

author = {Nigel W. Arnell and Jason A. Lowe and Dan J. Bernie and Robert J. Nicholls and Sally Brown and Andrew J. Challinor and Timothy J. Osborn},

doi = {10.1088/1748-9326/ab35a6},

issn = {1748-9326},

year  = {2019},

date = {2019-08-14},

journal = {Environmental Research Letters},

volume = {14},

number = {8},

publisher = {IOP Publishing Ltd},

abstract = {This paper presents an evaluation of the global and regional consequences of climate change for heat extremes, water resources, river and coastal flooding, droughts, agriculture and energy use. It presents change in hazard and resource base under different rates of climate change (Representative Concentration Pathways: RCP), and socio-economic impacts are estimated for each combination of RCP and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway. Uncertainty in the regional pattern of climate change is characterised by CMIP5 climate model projections. The analysis adopts a novel approach using relationships between level of warming and impact to rapidly estimate impacts under any climate forcing. The projections provided here can be used to inform assessments of the implications of climate change. At the global scale all the consequences of climate change considered here are adverse, with large increases under the highest rates of warming. Under the highest forcing the global average annual chance of a major heatwave increases from 5% now to 97% in 2100, the average proportion of time in drought increases from 7% to 27%, and the average chance of the current 50-year flood increases from 2% to 7%. The socio-economic impacts of these climate changes are determined by socio-economic scenario. There is variability in impact across regions, reflecting variability in projected changes in precipitation and temperature. The range in the estimated impacts can be large, due to uncertainty in future emissions and future socio-economic conditions and scientific uncertainty in how climate changes in response to future emissions. For the temperature-based indicators, the largest source of scientific uncertainty is in the estimated magnitude of equilibrium climate sensitivity, but for the indicators determined by precipitation the largest source is in the estimated spatial and seasonal pattern of changes in precipitation. By 2100 the range across socio-economic scenario is often greater than the range across the forcing levels.},

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}

@article{4688d4e975c64fcea9c6c96260b51633,

title = {Generic adaptation pathways for coastal archetypes under uncertain sea-level rise},

author = {Marjolijn Haasnoot and Sally Brown and Paolo Scussolini and Jose A Scussolini and Athanasios Vafeidis and Robert Nicholls},

doi = {10.1088/2515-7620/ab1871},

issn = {2515-7620},

year  = {2019},

date = {2019-08-07},

journal = {Environmental Research Communications},

volume = {1},

number = {7},

publisher = {IOP Publishing Ltd},

abstract = {Adaptation to coastal flood risk is hampered by high uncertainty in the rate and magnitude of sea-level rise. Subsequently, adaptation decisions carry strong risks of under- or over-investment, and could lead to costly retrofitting or unnecessary high margins. To better allocate resources timely and effectively, and achieve long-term sustainability, planners could utilise adaptation pathways, revealing the path-dependencies of adaptation options. This helps to identify low-regret short-term decisions that preserve options in an uncertain future, while monitoring to detect signals to adapt. A major barrier to the application of adaptation pathways is limited experience. To facilitate this, here we generalize this pathways approach for six common coastal archetypes, resulting in generic pathways suitable to be adjusted to local conditions. This provides a much richer analysis of coastal adaptation than provided by any previous analysis, by assessing the solution space and options over time for a variety of coastal regions. Based on this analysis, we find that the number of adaptation options declines while sea-level rises. For some archetypes, it becomes clear that long-term thinking is needed now, about if, how and when to move to transformative options, such as planned retreat, which may presently not be considered or acceptable. Our analysis further shows that coastal adaptation needs to start earlier than anticipated, especially given time required for local debate and choice and to implement measures.},

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@article{ac02f88f098f470496362743aa24db17,

title = {The need for bottom-up assessments of climate risks and adaptation in climate-sensitive regions},

author = {Declan Conway and Robert J. Nicholls and Sally Brown and Mark G. L. Tebboth and William Neil Adger and Bashir Ahmad and Hester Biemans and Florence Crick and Arthur F. Lutz and Ricardo Safra De Campos and Mohammed Said and Chandni Singh and Modathir Abdalla Hassan Zaroug and Eva Ludi and Mark New and Philippus Wester},

doi = {10.1038/s41558-019-0502-0},

issn = {1758-678X},

year  = {2019},

date = {2019-07-01},

journal = {Nature Climate Change},

volume = {9},

number = {7},

pages = {503–511},

publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},

abstract = {Studies of climate change at specific intervals of future warming have primarily been addressed through top-down approaches using climate projections and modelled impacts. In contrast, bottom-up approaches focus on the recent past and present vulnerability. Here, we examine climate signals at different increments of warming and consider the need to reconcile top-down and bottom-up approaches. We synthesise insights from recent studies in three climate-sensitive systems where change is a defining feature of the human-environment system. Whilst top-down and bottom-up approaches generate complementary insights into who and what is at risk, integrating their results is a much-needed step towards developing relevant information to address the needs of immediate adaptation decisions.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{56a1942de028458fbd229feb7c9c1649,

title = {Benefits of climate change mitigation for reducing the impacts of sea-level rise in G-20 countries},

author = {Sally Brown and Robert J. Nicholls and Anne K. Pardaens and Jason A. Lowe and Richard S. J. Tol and Athanasios T. Vafeidis and Jochen Hinkel},

doi = {10.2112/JCOASTRES-D-16-00185.1},

issn = {0749-0208},

year  = {2019},

date = {2019-07-01},

journal = {Journal of Coastal Research},

volume = {35},

number = {4},

pages = {884–895},

publisher = {Coastal Education Research Foundation Inc.},

abstract = {This paper assesses the potential benefits of climate change mitigation in reducing the impacts of sea-level rise over the 21st century in G-20 countries (excluding the European Union as a whole), using the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment model. Impacts of the expected number of people flooded annually and wetland losses were assessed. To assess the benefits of mitigation, it was assumed that defences were not upgraded during the study. Globally, with a sea-level rise of 0.68m by the 2080s (with respect to 1980-1999), representing a potential future with limited climate change mitigation, and with the SRES A1 socio-economic scenario, 123 million additional people could be flooded annually and 39% of present global wetland stock could be lost. For a 0.19m rise in sea-level, associated with a substantial reduction in emissions, the number of people flooded could reduce to 13 million per year, with 21% of global wetland stock loss, unless new wetlands emerge. Collectively, non-Annex 1 G-20 countries experience a disproportionate higher number of people flooded in their nations compared with the proportion of population flooded globally. The greatest wetland losses for G-20 countries are projected for Australia, Indonesia and the USA. Thus, G-20 nations with the highest emissions or gross domestic product, frequently do not experience the greatest impacts, despite some of these nations being potentially more able to pay for adaptation.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{33f95692900845fb87ffd184b18d5404,

title = {Water-level attenuation in global-scale assessments of exposure to coastal flooding: a sensitivity analysis},

author = {Athanasios T. Vafeidis and Mark Schuerch and Claudia Wolff and Tom Spencer and Jan-Ludolf Merkens and Jochen Hinkel and Daniel Lincke and Sally Brown and Robert Nicholls},

doi = {10.5194/nhess-19-973-2019},

issn = {1684-9981},

year  = {2019},

date = {2019-05-03},

journal = {Natural Hazards and Earth System Science},

volume = {19},

number = {5},

pages = {973–984},

abstract = {This study explores the uncertainty introduced in global assessments of coastal flood exposure and risk when not accounting for water level attenuation due to land-surface characteristics. We implement a range of plausible water-level attenuation values for characteristic land-cover classes in the flood module of the Dynamic and Integrated Vulnerability Assessment (DIVA) modelling framework and assess the sensitivity of flood exposure and flood risk indicators to differences in attenuation rates. Results show a reduction of up to 44% in area exposure and even larger reductions in population exposure and expected flood damages when considering water level attenuation. The reductions vary by country, reflecting the differences in the physical characteristics of the floodplain as well as in the spatial distribution of people and assets in coastal regions. We find that uncertainties related to not accounting for water attenuation in global assessments of flood risk are of similar magnitude to the uncertainties related to the amount of SLR expected over the 21st century. Despite using simplified assumptions to account for the process of water level attenuation, which depends on numerous factors and their complex interactions, our results strongly suggest that an improved understanding and representation of the temporal and spatial variation of water levels across floodplains is essential for future impact modelling.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{46781db10b844514b536f932551af121,

title = {Future response of global coastal wetlands to sea level rise},

author = {Mark Schuerch and Tom Spencer and Stijn Temmerman and Matthew L. Kirwan and Claudia Wolff and Daniel Lincke and Chris J. McOwen and Mark Pickering and Ruth Reef and Athanasios Vafeidis and Jochen Hinkel and Robert Nicholls and Sally Brown},

doi = {10.1038/s41586-018-0476-5},

issn = {0028-0836},

year  = {2018},

date = {2018-09-12},

journal = {Nature},

volume = {561},

pages = {231–234},

publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},

abstract = {The response of coastal wetlands to sea level rise (SLR) during the 21st century remains uncertain. Global-scale projections suggest that between 20% and 90% (for low and high SLR scenarios, respectively) of the present-day coastal wetland area will be lost, including the loss of biodiversity and highly valued ecosystem services1-3. These projections do not necessarily take into account allessential geomorphological4-7 and socio-economic system feedbacks8. Here we present an integrated global modelling approach that considers (i) the ability of coastal wetlands to build up vertically by sediment accretion and (ii) the accommodation space, namely the vertical and lateral space available for fine sediments to accumulate and to be colonised by wetland vegetation. We use this approach to assess global-scale changes in coastal wetland area in response to global SLR and anthropogenic coastal occupation during the 21st century. Based on our simulations we find that, globally, wetland gains of up to 60% of the current area are expected, if more than 37% of coastal wetlands have sufficient accommodation space, and sediment supply remains at present levels. In contrast to previous studies1-3, we project that until 2100 global coastal wetland loss will range between 0% and 30%, assuming no additional accommodation space. Our simulations suggest that global wetland resilience is primarily driven by the availability of accommodation space, which is strongly influenced by the building of anthropogenic infrastructure in the coastalzone and its expected to change over the 21st century. Rather than being an inevitableconsequence of global SLR, our findings indicate that large-scale coastal wetland loss might be avoidable, if sufficient additional accommodation space can be created through innovative “nature-based adaptation” solutions to coastal management.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{374a6ce7df5e4afc946f57fa52720bd5,

title = {The ability of societies to adapt to 21st century sea-level rise},

author = {Jochen Hinkel and Jeroen C. J. H. Aerts and Sally Brown and Jose Jimenez and Daniel Lincke and Robert Nicholls and Paolo Scussolini and Agustin Sanchez-Arcilla and Athanasios Vafeidis and Kwasi Appeaning Addo},

doi = {10.1038/s41558-018-0176-z},

issn = {1758-678X},

year  = {2018},

date = {2018-06-25},

journal = {Nature Climate Change},

volume = {8},

pages = {570–578},

publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},

abstract = {Against the background of possible substantial sea-level rise, an important question is, to what extent are coastal societies able to adapt? This question is often answered in the negative by referring to sinking islands and submerged mega-cities. While these risks are real, the picture is incomplete because it lacks consideration of adaptation. This Perspective explores societies’ abilities to adapt to 21st century sea-level rise by integrating perspectives from coastal engineering, economics, finance and social sciences, and provides a comparative analysis of a set of cases that vary in technological limits, and economic, financing, and social conflict barriers to coastal adaptation.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{16095e80c8814a73982a156239a1295d,

title = {Adjusting mitigation pathways to stabilize climate at 1.5 and 2.0 °C rise in global temperatures to year 2300},

author = {Philip Goodwin and Sally Brown and Ivan Haigh and Robert Nicholls and Juerg Matter},

doi = {10.1002/2017EF000732},

issn = {2328-4277},

year  = {2018},

date = {2018-03-25},

journal = {Earth's Future},

volume = {6},

number = {3},

pages = {601–615},

publisher = {Wiley},

abstract = {To avoid the most dangerous consequences of anthropogenic climate change, the Paris Agreement provides a clear and agreed climate mitigation target of stabilizing global surface warming to under 2.0 °C above preindustrial, and preferably closer to 1.5 °C. However, policy makers do not currently know exactly what carbon emissions pathways to follow to stabilize warming below these agreed targets, because there is large uncertainty in future temperature rise for any given pathway. This large uncertainty makes it difficult for a cautious policy maker to avoid either: (1) allowing warming to exceed the agreed target; or (2) cutting global emissions more than is required to satisfy the agreed target, and their associated societal costs. This study presents a novel Adjusting Mitigation Pathway (AMP) approach to restrict future warming to policy-driven targets, in which future emissions reductions are not fully determined now but respond to future surface warming each decade in a self-adjusting manner. A large ensemble of Earth system model simulations, constrained by geological and historical observations of past climate change, demonstrates our self-adjusting mitigation approach for a range of climate stabilization targets ranging from 1.5 to 4.5 °C, and generates AMP scenarios up to year 2300 for surface warming, carbon emissions, atmospheric CO2, global mean sea level, and surface ocean acidification. We find that lower 21st century warming targets will significantly reduce ocean acidification this century, and will avoid up to 4m of sea-level rise by year 2300 relative to a high-end scenario.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{2331bc5b36184f2f9d6735947e9838a1,

title = {Quantifying land and people exposed to sea-level rise with no mitigation and 1.5 and 2.0°C rise in global temperatures to year 2300},

author = {Sally Brown and Robert Nicholls and Philip Goodwin and Ivan Haigh and Daniel Lincke and Athanasios Vafeidis and Jochen Hinkel},

doi = {10.1002/2017EF000738},

issn = {2328-4277},

year  = {2018},

date = {2018-03-25},

journal = {Earth's Future},

volume = {6},

number = {3},

pages = {583–600},

publisher = {Wiley},

abstract = {We use multiple synthetic mitigation sea-level scenarios, together with a non-mitigation sea-level scenario from the Warming Acidification and Sea-level Projector model. We find sea-level rise continues to accelerate post 2100 for all but the most aggressive mitigation scenarios indicative of 1.5°C and 2.0°C. Using the Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment modelling framework, we project land and population exposed in the 1 in 100 year coastal flood plain under sea-level rise and population change. In 2000, the flood plain is estimated at 540 x103 km2. By 2100, under the mitigation scenarios, it ranges between 610 x103 km2 and 640 x103 km2 [580 x103 km2 and 700 x103 km2 for the 5th and 95th percentiles]. Thus differences between the mitigation scenarios are small in 2100. However, in 2300, flood plains are projected to increase to between 700 x103 km2 and 960 x103 km2 in 2300 [610 x103 km2 and 1,290 x103 km2] for the mitigation scenarios, but 1,630 x103 km2 [1,190 x103 km2 and 2,220 x103 km2] for the non-mitigation scenario. The proportion of global population exposed to sea-level rise in 2300 is projected to be between 1.5% and 5.4% [1.2% to 7.6%] (assuming no population growth after 2100) for the aggressive mitigation and the non-mitigation scenario, respectively. Hence over centennial timescales there are significant benefits to climate change mitigation and temperature stabilization. However, sea-levels will continue to rise albeit at lower rates. Thus potential impacts will keep increasing necessitating adaptation to existing coastal infrastructure and the careful planning of new coastal developments.Plain Language SummaryIf we reduce greenhouse gas emissions and stabilize global temperatures, sea‐level rise (SLR) will continue at a reduced rate for centuries. This is because changes to the ocean and cryosphere (ice) which contribute to SLR take very long timescales to respond to changes in global warming. Early and aggressive climate change mitigation will be most effective to reduce flood risk, particularly after the 21st century. Even with climate change mitigation, the land area exposed to coastal flooding will continue to increase for centuries. Adapting the coast to cope with rising sea levels is inevitably required. The long‐term implications for coastal habitation need to be considered.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{2032,

title = {Adjusting Mitigation Pathways to Stabilize Climate at 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C Rise in Global Temperatures to Year 2300},

author = {P Goodwin and S Brown and I Haigh and R J Nicholls and J Matter},

url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/doi/abs/10.1002/2017EF000732},

doi = {10.1002/2017EF000732},

year  = {2018},

date = {2018-01-01},

journal = {Earths Future},

volume = {3},

pages = {601-615},

chapter = {601},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{2022,

title = {Quantifying Land and People Exposed to Sea-Level Rise with No Mitigation and 1.5 degrees C and 2.0 degrees C Rise in Global Temperatures to Year 2300},

author = {S Brown and R J Nicholls and P Goodwin and I Haigh and D Lincke and A T Vafeidis and J Hinkel},

url = {https://agupubs.onlinelibrary.wiley.com/article/10.1002/2017EF000738/editor-highlight/},

doi = {10.1002/2017EF000738},

year  = {2018},

date = {2018-01-01},

journal = {Earths Future},

volume = {6},

pages = {583-600},

chapter = {583},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{2011,

title = {Risks associated with global warming of 1.5 or 2C},

author = {R Warren and O Andrews and S Brown and N Forstenhaeusler and D Gernaat and P Goodwin and I Harris and Y He and C Home and FJ Colón-González and R Nicholls and T Osborn and J Price and D Van Vuuren and R Wright},

year  = {2018},

date = {2018-01-01},

publisher = {Tyndall Centre Briefing Note},

abstract = {<p>This Briefing Note summarises research examining the risks associated with global warming of 1.5<strong>textdegree</strong>C and 2<strong>textdegree</strong>C funded by the UK department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy (BEIS) undertaken by researchers at the Tyndall Centre.</p>},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{2081,

title = {Stabilization of global temperature at 1.5textdegreeC and 2.0textdegreeC: implications for coastal areas},

author = {R J Nicholls and S Brown and P Goodwin and T Wahl and J Lowe and M Solan and JA Godbold and I Haigh and D Lincke and J Hinkel and C Wolff and J-L Merkens},

url = {http://dx.doi.org/10.1098/rsta.2016.0448},

doi = {10.1098/rsta.2016.0448},

year  = {2018},

date = {2018-01-01},

journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society A},

abstract = {<p id="p-4">The effectiveness of stringent climate stabilization scenarios for coastal areas in terms of reduction of impacts/adaptation needs and wider policy implications has received little attention. Here we use the Warming Acidification and Sea Level Projector Earth systems model to calculate large ensembles of global sea-level rise (SLR) and ocean pH projections to 2300 for 1.5textdegreeC and 2.0textdegreeC stabilization scenarios, and a reference unmitigated RCP8.5 scenario. The potential consequences of these projections are then considered for global coastal flooding, small islands, deltas, coastal cities and coastal ecology. Under both stabilization scenarios, global mean ocean pH (and temperature) stabilize within a century. This implies significant ecosystem impacts are avoided, but detailed quantification is lacking, reflecting scientific uncertainty. By contrast, SLR is only slowed and continues to 2300 (and beyond). Hence, while coastal impacts due to SLR are reduced significantly by climate stabilization, especially after 2100, potential impacts continue to grow for centuries. SLR in 2300 under both stabilization scenarios exceeds unmitigated SLR in 2100. Therefore, adaptation remains essential in densely populated and economically important coastal areas under climate stabilization. Given the multiple adaptation steps that this will require, an adaptation pathways approach has merits for coastal areas.</p><p id="p-5">This article is part of the theme issue textquoteleftThe Paris Agreement: understanding the physical and social challenges for a warming world of 1.5textdegreeC above pre-industrial levelstextquoteright.</p>},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{1619,

title = {A comparison of two global datasets of extreme sea levels and resulting flood exposure},

author = {S Muis and M Verlaan and R J Nicholls and S Brown and J Hinkel and D Lincke and A T Vafeidis and P Scussolini and H C Winsemius and P J Ward},

doi = {DOI: 10.1002/2016EF000430},

year  = {2017},

date = {2017-01-01},

abstract = {<p>Estimating the current risk of coastal flooding requires adequate information on extreme sea levels. For over a decade, the only global data available was the DINAS-COAST Extreme Sea Levels (DCESL) dataset, which applies a static approximation to estimate extreme sea levels. Recently, a dynamically derived dataset was developed: the Global Tide and Surge Reanalysis (GTSR) dataset. Here, we compare the two datasets. The differences between DCESL and GTSR are generally larger than the confidence intervals of GTSR. Compared to observed extremes, DCESL generally overestimates extremes with a mean bias of 0.6m. With a mean bias of -0.2m GTSR generally underestimates extremes, particularly in the tropics. The Dynamic Interactive Vulnerability Assessment model is applied to calculate the present-day flood exposure in terms of the land area and the population below the 1 in 100-year sea levels. Global exposed population is 28% lower when based on GTSR instead of DCESL. Considering the limited data available at the time, DCESL provides a good estimate of the spatial variation in extremes around the world. However, GTSR allows for an improved assessment of the impacts of coastal floods, including confidence bounds. We further improve the assessment of coastal impacts by correcting for the conflicting vertical datum of sea-level extremes and land elevation, which has not been accounted for in previous global assessments. Converting the extreme sea levels to the same vertical reference used for the elevation data is shown to be a critical step resulting in 39-59% higher estimate of population exposure. textcopyright 2017 American Geophysical Union.</p>},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{1629,

title = {Spatial-temporal changes of coastal and marine disasters risks and impacts in Mainland China Ocean and Coastal Management,},

author = {Fang Jiayi and Liu Wei and Yang Saini and S Brown and Nicholls Robert and Hinkel Jochen and Xianwu Shi and Peijun Shi},

doi = {doi.org/10.1016/j.ocecoaman.2017.02.003},

year  = {2017},

date = {2017-01-01},

abstract = {<p>China is amongst the countries most severely affected by coastal and marine disasters. In this study, the annual variation and geographic distribution of the direct economic losses and fatalities caused by rapid-onset coastal and marine disasters in China have been analysed. This was based on a collection of historical documents and official records. The five main hazards include storm surges, rough seas, sea ice, red tides and green tides. The results show that: (1) Storm surges caused the most economic losses (92% of the total); (2) At national scale, direct economic losses induced by coastal and marine disasters fluctuated with no clear trend; the number of fatalities per year declined, and in relative terms both economic losses and fatalities decreased dramatically throughout time; (3) Substantial heterogeneity exists across the 11 provincial-level administrative regions in terms of the spatial pattern and temporal trends of coastal and marine hazards, exposure, vulnerability and observed impacts. Guangzhou, Fujian, Zhejiang and Hainan provinces experienced the highest direct economic losses and fatalities due to repeated typhoon-induced storm surges. The decline in adverse impacts caused by hazards is due to substantial progress in coastal and marine disaster prevention and migration in China, largely thanks to institutional measures, plus adaptation and mitigation actions at both national and regional levels. Coastal China still faces growing risks due to socio-economic development, climate change, as well as subsidence and new emerging marine disasters (e.g. green tides). Further management needs to promote integrated solutions across socio-economic development, disaster risk reduction and environmental conservation in coastal regions. This should happen at national and international levels as disasters can affect neighboring countries, and their marine environments and socio-ecological systems. Lessons may be learnt from countries experiencing similar problems over the long-term.</p>},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{1602,

title = {A systematic assessment of maritime disruptions affecting UK ports, coastal areas and surrounding seas from 1950 to 2014},

author = {E F Adam and S Brown and R J Nicholls and M Tsimplis},

url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007%2Fs11069-016-2347-4},

doi = {10.1007/s11069-016-2347-4},

year  = {2016},

date = {2016-08-01},

journal = {Natural Hazards},

volume = {83},

pages = {691-713},

chapter = {691},

abstract = {<p>Maritime disruptions can have severe negative implications including affecting business operations, regional and national economies and causing damage to vessels. This study analysed maritime disruptions in UK ports, coastal areas and surrounding seas from 1950 to 2014, systematically assessing their scale, duration, extent and consequences. Disruptions are a single or sequence of hazardous events that negatively affect textquoteleftbusiness as usualtextquoteright conditions, ranging from minor to major disruption and even loss of life. To express this range, a severity scale was developed and applied. A database of maritime disruptions and their severities was constructed using data archaeology, identifying 88 events, primarily caused by wind storms (36 %), human error (23 %), mechanical faults (14 %) and storm surges (12 %). All events other than human error or mechanical faults occurred between October and March (typically associated with autumn/winter storms and depressions), with 65 % recorded between November and January. Maritime disruptions from weather events tended to have regional/national impacts, whereas human error or mechanical faults were usually locally severe. Since 2000, ports demonstrated more frequent disruption to wind storms due to mechanization, increased delay and closure reporting, and refined health and safety regulations. Most frequently affected were the sea areas Fair Isle and Dover, and the Felixstowe and Dover ports. Through time, primary impacts shifted from extensive flooding and structural damage to financial impacts and disruption, associated with adaptation including implementation/upgrading of coastal defences, storm warning systems and legislation. Port and governmental bodies responded adaptively (e.g. Thames Barrier construction and development of automatic tracking systems). The UKtextquoterights maritime disruption vulnerability has altered significantly since 1950 and continues to evolve.</p>},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{1700,

title = {Projected changes in area of the Sundarban mangrove forest in Bangladesh due to SLR by 2100},

author = {Andres Payo and Anirban Mukhopadhyay and Sugata Hazra and Tuhin Ghosh and Subhajit Ghosh and S Brown and Robert J )[ Nicholls and Lucy Bricheno and Judith Wolf and Susan Kay},

doi = {DOI: 10.1007/s10584-016-1769-z},

year  = {2016},

date = {2016-01-01},

abstract = {<p>The Sundarbans mangrove ecosystem, located in India and Bangladesh, is recognized as a global priority for biodiversity conservation and is an important provider of ecosystem services such as numerous goods and protection against storm surges. With global mean sea-level rise projected as up to 0.98 m or greater by 2100 relative to the baseline period (1985-2005), the Sundarbans - mean elevation presently approximately 2 m above mean sea-level - is under threat from inundation and subsequent wetland loss; however the magnitude of loss remains unclear. We used remote and field measurements, geographic information systems and simulation modelling to investigate the potential effects of three sea-level rise scenarios on the Sundarbans within coastal Bangladesh. We illustrate how the Sea Level Affecting Marshes Model (SLAMM) is able to reproduce the observed area losses for the period 2000-2010. Using this calibrated model and assuming that mean sea-level is a better proxy than the SLAMM assumed mean lower low water for Mangrove area delineation, the estimated mangrove area net losses (relative to year 2000) are 81-178 km(2), 111-376 km(2) and 583-1393 km(2) for relative sea-level rise scenarios to 2100 of 0.46 m, 0.75 m and 1.48 m, respectively and net subsidence of +/- 2.5 mm/year. These area losses are very small (< 10 % of present day area) and significantly smaller than previous research has suggested. Our simulations also suggest that erosion rather than inundation may remain the dominant loss driver to 2100 under certain scenarios of sea-level rise and net subsidence. Only under the highest scenarios does inundation due to sea-level rise become the dominant loss process.</p>},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{1692,

title = {A review of potential physical impacts on harbours in the Mediterranean Sea under climate change},

author = {Agustin Sanchez-Arcilla and Joan Pau Sierra and S Brown and Merce Casas-Prat and Robert James Nicholls and Piero Lionello and Dario Conte},

doi = {DOI: 10.1007/s10113-016-0972-9},

year  = {2016},

date = {2016-01-01},

abstract = {<p>The potential impact of climate change on port operations and infrastructures has received much less attention than the corresponding impact for beach systems. However, ports have always been vulnerable to weather extremes and climate change could enhance such occurrences at timescales comparable to the design lifetime of harbour engineering structures. The analysis in this paper starts with the main climatic variables affecting harbour engineering and exploitation. It continues with a review of the available projections for such variables first at global scale and then at a regional scale (Catalan coast in the western Mediterranean) as a study case for similar environments in the planet. The detailed assessment of impacts starts from downscaled projections for mean sea level and wave storms (wind not considered in the paper). This is followed by an analysis of the port operations and infrastructure performance that are relevant from a climate perspective. The key climatic factors here considered are relative sea level, wave storm features (height, period, direction and duration) and their combined effect, which is expected to produce the highest impacts. The paper ends with a discussion and some examples of analyses aiming at port adaptation to future climate change.</p>},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{1729,

title = {Modelling the influences of climate change-associated sea-level rise and socioeconomic development on future storm surge mortality},

author = {Simon J )[ Lloyd and Sari R Kovats and Zaid Chalabi and Sally Brown and Robert J )[ Nicholls},

doi = {DOI: 10.1007/s10584-015-1376-4},

year  = {2016},

date = {2016-01-01},

abstract = {<p>Climate change is expected to affect health through changes in exposure to weather disasters. Vulnerability to coastal flooding has decreased in recent decades but remains disproportionately high in low-income countries. We developed a new statistical model for estimating future storm surge-attributable mortality. The model accounts for sea-level rise and socioeconomic change, and allows for an initial increase in risk as low-income countries develop. We used observed disaster mortality data to fit the model, splitting the dataset to allow the use of a longer time-series of high intensity, high mortality but infrequent events. The model could not be validated due to a lack of data. However, model fit suggests it may make reasonable estimates of log mortality risk but that mortality estimates are unreliable. We made future projections with and without climate change (A1B) and sea-based adaptation, but given the lack of model validation we interpret the results qualitatively. In low-income countries, risk initially increases with development up to mid-century before decreasing. If implemented, sea-based adaptation reduces climate-associated mortality in some regions, but in others mortality remains high. These patterns reinforce the importance of implementing disaster risk reduction strategies now. Further, while average mortality changes discontinuously over time, vulnerability and risk are evolving conditions of everyday life shaped by socioeconomic processes. Given this, and the apparent importance of socioeconomic factors that condition risk in our projections, we suggest future models should focus on estimating risk rather than mortality. This would strengthen the knowledge base for averting future storm surge-attributable health impacts.</p>},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{1728,

title = {Spatial variations of sea-level rise and impacts: An application of DIVA},

author = {Sally Brown and Robert J Nicholls and Jason A Lowe and Jochen Hinkel},

doi = {DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0925-y},

year  = {2016},

date = {2016-01-01},

abstract = {<p>Due to complexities of creating sea-level rise scenarios, impacts of climate-induced sea-level rise are often produced from a limited number of models assuming a global uniform rise in sea level. A greater number of models, including those with a pattern reflecting regional variations would help to assure reliability and a range of projections, indicating where models agree and disagree. This paper determines how nine new patterned-scaled sea-level rise scenarios (plus the uniform and patterned ensemble mean rises) influence global and regional coastal impacts (wetland loss, dry land loss due to erosion and the expected number of people flooded per year by extreme sea levels). The DIVA coastal impacts model was used under an A1B scenario, and assumed defences were not upgraded as conditions evolved. For seven out of nine climate models, impacts occurred at a proportional rate to global sea-level rise. For the remaining two models, higher than average rise in sea level was projected in northern latitudes or around populated coasts thus skewing global impact projections compared with the ensemble global mean. Regional variability in impacts were compared using the ensemble mean uniform and patterned scenarios: The largest relative difference in impacts occurred around the Mediterranean coast, and the largest absolute differences around low-lying populated coasts, such as south, south-east and east Asia. Uniform projections of sea-level rise impacts remain a useful method to determine global impacts, but improved regional scale models of sea-level rise, particularly around semi-enclosed seas and densely populated low-lying coasts will provide improved regional impact projections and a characterisation of their uncertainties.</p>},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{1604,

title = {Subsidence and human influences in mega deltas: The case of the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna},

author = {S Brown and R J Nicholls},

url = {http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0048969715300589},

doi = {10.1016/j.scitotenv.2015.04.124},

year  = {2015},

date = {2015-09-01},

journal = {Science of the Total Environment},

volume = {527-528},

pages = {362-374},

chapter = {362},

abstract = {<p id="sp0005">Relative sea/land level changes are fundamental to people living in deltas. Net subsidence is complex and attributed to tectonics, compaction, sedimentation and anthropogenic causes. It can have severe impacts and needs to be quantified and where possible (for subsidence due to anthropogenic causes) avoided. For the highly populated Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna delta, a large range of net subsidence rates are described in the literature, yet the reasons behind this wide range of values are poorly understood. This paper documents and analyses rates of subsidence (for publications until 2014) and relates these findings to human influences (development).</p><p id="sp0010">205 point measurements of net subsidence were found, reported in 24 studies. Reported measurements were often repetitive in multiple journals, with some lacking detail as to precise location, cause and method, questioning reliability of the rate of subsidence. Rates differed by locality, methodology and period of measurement. Ten different measurement methods were recorded, with radio-carbon dating being the most common. Temporal and spatially, rates varied between - 1.1 mm/yr (i.e. uplift) and 43.8 mm/yr. The overall mean reported rate was 5.6 mm/yr, and the overall median 2.9 mm/yr, with 7.3 mm/yr representing one standard deviation. These rates were reduced if inaccurate or vague records were omitted. The highest rates were recorded in the Sylhet Plateau, Dhaka and Kolkata. Highest rates were recorded in the last 1000 years, where the mean increased to 8.8 mm/yr and a standard deviation of 7.5 mm/yr. This could be partly due to shorter-term measurement records, or anthropogenic influence as multiple high rates are often found in urban settings. Continued development may cause rates to locally increase (e.g. due to groundwater abstraction and/or drainage). Improved monitoring is required over a wider area, to determine long-term trends, particularly as short-term records are highly variable. Focus in regions where wide spread development is occurring or is expected would be advantageous.</p><h2 id="kwd_1">Abbreviations</h2><ul id="ks0005"><li id="kw0065">GPS, Differential Geographical Positioning System; </li><li id="kw0075">GRACE, Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment; </li><li id="kw0085">InSAR, Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar</li></ul>},

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}

@article{584de8b70c924f1a8ab82814c6368e63,

title = {Is there a Rhythm Of The Rain? An analysis of weather in popular music},

author = {Sally Brown and Karen L. Aplin and Katie Jenkins and Sarah Mander and Claire Walsh and Paul D. Williams},

doi = {10.1002/wea.2464},

issn = {0043-1656},

year  = {2015},

date = {2015-07-01},

journal = {Weather},

volume = {70},

number = {7},

pages = {198–204},

publisher = {Wiley},

abstract = {Weather is frequently used in music to frame events and emotions, yet quantitative analyses are rare. From a collated base set of 759 weather-related songs, 419 were analysed based on listings from a karaoke database. This article analyses the 20 weather types described, frequency of occurrence, genre, keys, mimicry, lyrics and songwriters. Vocals were the principal means of communicating weather: sunshine was the most common, followed by rain, with weather depictions linked to the emotions of the song. Bob Dylan, John Lennon and Paul McCartney wrote the most weather-related songs, partly following their experiences at the time of writing.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{6b375e1c08c54f3c84866f9c567f95df,

title = {Is there a Rhythm Of The Rain? An analysis of weather in popular music},

author = {S Brown and L Aplin K and K Jenkins and S Mander and C Walsh and P Williams},

doi = {10.1002/wea.2464},

issn = {0043-1656},

year  = {2015},

date = {2015-01-01},

journal = {Weather},

volume = {70},

number = {7},

pages = {198–204},

publisher = {John Wiley & Sons Ltd},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{1579,

title = {Shifting perspectives on coastal impacts and adaptation},

author = {S Brown and R J Nicholls and S Hanson and G Brundrit and JA. Dearing and M E Dickson and SL. Gallop and S Gao and I Haigh and J Hinkel and JA. Jiménez and R J T Klein and W Kron and AN. Lázár and CF Neves and A Newton and C Pattiaratachi and A Payo and K Pye and A Sánchez-Arcilla and M Siddall and A Shareef and E Tompkins and A Vafeidis and B van Maanen and PJ. Ward and CD. Woodroffe},

url = {http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n9/full/nclimate2344.html},

doi = {10.1038/nclimate2344},

year  = {2014},

date = {2014-08-01},

journal = {Nature Climate Chnage},

volume = {4},

pages = {752-755},

chapter = {752},

abstract = {<p>With the release of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC)textquoterights Fifth Assessment Report (AR5)^{<a href="http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n9/full/nclimate2344.html$#$ref1" id="ref-link-7" title="Wong, P. P. et al. in IPCC Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (eds Field, C. et al.) Ch. 5 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014).">1</a>}, climate change has again been identified as an important driver of change. Coasts are particularly vulnerable, as they are directly affected by rising sea levels, storminess and other climate drivers: this is accentuated by other issues and changes such as urbanisation, including indirect landward and seaward influences (for example, reduced water and sediment input due to dams). Adverse consequences include increased flooding, salinization, erosion, and wetland and biodiversity loss^{<a href="http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n9/full/nclimate2344.html$#$ref1" id="ref-link-8" title="Wong, P. P. et al. in IPCC Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (eds Field, C. et al.) Ch. 5 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014).">1</a>}. Several recent extreme meteorological events have caused catastrophic human and economic losses in coastal areas, such as Cyclone Nargis (Myanmar, 2008), Storm Xynthia (France, 2010), Hurricane Sandy (eastern United States, Canada and Caribbean, 2012) and Typhoon Haiyan (Philippines, 2013). Although coasts have always been hazardous places to live, global economic losses have significantly increased in recent decades^{<a href="http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n9/full/nclimate2344.html$#$ref2" id="ref-link-9" title="Kron, W. Nat. Hazards 66, 1363-1382 (2013).">2</a>}. Climate change is exacerbating those risks. This Commentary demonstrates how successive IPCC coastal chapters^{<a href="http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n9/full/nclimate2344.html$#$ref1" id="ref-link-10" title="Wong, P. P. et al. in IPCC Climate Change 2014: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (eds Field, C. et al.) Ch. 5 (IPCC, Cambridge Univ. Press, 2014).">1</a>,<a href="http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n9/full/nclimate2344.html$#$ref3" id="ref-link-11" title="Tsyban, A., Everett, J. T. & Titus J. G. in Climate Change: The IPCC Impacts Assessment (eds Tegart, W. J. McG., Sheldon, G. W. & Griffiths, D. C.) 6.1-6.28 (Australia Government Publishing Service, 1990).">3</a>, <a href="http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n9/full/nclimate2344.html$#$ref4" id="ref-link-12" title="Bijlsma, L. et al. in Climate Change 1995: Impacts, Adaptations, and Mitigation of Climate Change: Scientific-Technical Analyses (eds Watson, R. T., Zinyowera, M. C. & Moss, R. H.) 289-324 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 1996).">4</a>, <a href="http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n9/full/nclimate2344.html$#$ref5" id="ref-link-13" title="McLean, R. et al. in Climate Change 2001: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (eds McCarthy, J. J., Canziani, O. F., Leary, N. A., Dokken, D. J. & White, K. S.) 343-380 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2001)">5</a>, <a href="http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v4/n9/full/nclimate2344.html$#$ref6" id="ref-link-14" title="Nicholls, R. J. et al. in Climate Change 2007: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability (eds Parry, M. L., Canziani, O. F., Palutikof, J. P., van der Linden, P. J. & Hanson, C. E.) 315-356 (Cambridge Univ. Press, 2007).">6</a>} have shifted from impacts towards adaptation, assessing the relative role of climate change within a broader environmental framework, with increasing clarity and nuance, despite continuing uncertainties.</p>},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{1112,

title = {Global-scale climate impact functions: the relationship between climate forcing and impact},

author = {R J Nicholls and T Osborn and P Zelazowski and J Lowe and N W Arnell and S Brown and S Gosling and J Hinkel and C Huntingford and B Lloyd-Hughes},

year  = {2014},

date = {2014-01-01},

journal = {Climatic Change},

pages = {1-13},

chapter = {1},

abstract = {<p>Although there is a strong policy interest in the impacts of climate change corresponding to different degrees of climate change, there is so far little consistent empirical evidence of the relationship between climate forcing and impact. This is because the vast majority of impact assessments use emissions-based scenarios with associated socio-economic assumptions, and it is not feasible to infer impacts at other temperature changes by interpolation. This paper presents an assessment of the global-scale impacts of climate change in 2050 corresponding to defined increases in global mean temperature, using spatially-explicit impacts models representing impacts in the water resources, river flooding, coastal, agriculture, ecosystem and built environment sectors. Pattern-scaling is used to construct climate scenarios associated with specific changes in global mean surface temperature, and a relationship between temperature and sea level used to construct sea level rise scenarios. Climate scenarios are constructed from 21 climate models to give an indication of the uncertainty between forcing and response. The analysis shows that there is considerable uncertainty in the impacts associated with a given increase in global mean temperature, due largely to uncertainty in the projected regional change in precipitation. This has important policy implications. There is evidence for some sectors of a non-linear relationship between global mean temperature change and impact, due to the changing relative importance of temperature and precipitation change. In the socio-economic sectors considered here, the relationships are reasonably consistent between socio-economic scenarios if impacts are expressed in proportional terms, but there can be large differences in absolute terms. There are a number of caveats with the approach, including the use of pattern-scaling to construct scenarios, the use of one impacts model per sector, and the sensitivity of the shape of the relationships between forcing and response to the definition of the impact indicator. © 2014 The Author(s).</p>},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{990b,

title = {The impacts of climate change across the globe: a multi-sectoral assessment},

author = {JA Lowe and TM Osborne and GA Rose and P Zelazowski and TJ Osborn and TR Wheeler and B Lloyd-Hughes and P Smith and R J Nicholls and N A Arnell and S Brown and SN Gosling and P Gottschalk and J Hinkel and C Huntingford},

url = {http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/371828},

year  = {2014},

date = {2014-01-01},

journal = {Climatic Change},

abstract = {<p>The overall global-scale consequences of climate change are dependent on the distribution of impacts across regions, and there are multiple dimensions to these impacts. This paper presents a global assessment of the potential impacts of climate change across several sectors, using a harmonised set of impacts models forced by the same climate andsocio-economic scenarios. Indicators of impact cover the water resources, river and coastal flooding, agriculture, natural environment and built environment sectors. Impacts are assessed under four SRES socio-economic and emissions scenarios, and the effects of uncertainty in the projected pattern of climate change are incorporated by constructing climate scenarios from 21 global climate models. There is considerable uncertainty in projected regional impacts across the climate model scenarios, and coherent assessments of impacts across sectors and regions therefore must be based on each model pattern separately; using ensemble means, for example, reduces variability between sectors and indicators. An example narrative assessment is presented in the paper. Under this narrative approximately 1 billion people would be exposed to increased water resources stress, around 450 million people exposed to increased river flooding, and 1.3 million extra people would be flooded in coastal floods each year. Crop productivity would fall in most regions, and residential energy demands would be reduced in most regions because reduced heating demands would offset higher cooling demands. Most of the global impacts on water stress and flooding would be in Asia, but the proportional impacts in the Middle East North Africa region would be larger. By 2050 there are emerging differences in impact between different emissions and socio-economic scenarios even though the changes in temperature and sea level are similar, and these differences are greater in 2080. However, for all the indicators, the range in projected impacts between different climate models is considerably greater than the range between emissions and socio-economic scenarios.</p>},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{536b,

title = {Implications of sea-level rise and extreme events around Europe: A review of coastal energy infrastructure},

author = {S Brown and S Hanson and R J Nicholls},

url = {https://link.springer.com/article/10.1007/s10584-013-0996-9},

doi = {10.1007/s10584-013-0996-9},

year  = {2014},

date = {2014-01-01},

journal = {Climatic Change},

volume = {122},

pages = {81-95},

chapter = {81},

abstract = {<p><span class="ScopusTermHighlight">Sea</span>-<span class="ScopusTermHighlight">level</span><span class="ScopusTermHighlight">rise</span> and <span class="ScopusTermHighlight">extreme</span><span class="ScopusTermHighlight">events</span> have the potential to significantly impact <span class="ScopusTermHighlight">coastal</span><span class="ScopusTermHighlight">energy</span><span class="ScopusTermHighlight">infrastructure</span> through flooding and erosion. Disruptions to supply, transportation and storage of <span class="ScopusTermHighlight">energy</span> have global ramifications and potential contamination of the natural environment. On <span class="ScopusTermHighlight">a</span> European scale, there is limited information about <span class="ScopusTermHighlight">energy</span> facilities and their strategic plans for adapting to climate change. Using <span class="ScopusTermHighlight">a</span> Geographical Information System this paper assesses <span class="ScopusTermHighlight">coastal</span><span class="ScopusTermHighlight">energy</span><span class="ScopusTermHighlight">infrastructure</span>, comprising (1) oil/gas/LNG/tanker terminals and (2) nuclear power stations. It discusses planning and adaptation for <span class="ScopusTermHighlight">sea</span>-<span class="ScopusTermHighlight">level</span><span class="ScopusTermHighlight">rise</span> and <span class="ScopusTermHighlight">extreme</span><span class="ScopusTermHighlight">events</span>. Results indicate 158 major oil/gas/LNG/tanker terminals in the European <span class="ScopusTermHighlight">coastal</span> zone, with 40 % located on the North <span class="ScopusTermHighlight">Sea</span> coast. There are 71 operating nuclear reactors on the coast (37 % of the total of European <span class="ScopusTermHighlight">coastal</span> countries), with further locations planned in the Black, Mediterranean and Baltic <span class="ScopusTermHighlight">Seas</span>. The UK has three times more <span class="ScopusTermHighlight">coastal</span><span class="ScopusTermHighlight">energy</span> facilities than any other country. Many north-west European countries who have <span class="ScopusTermHighlight">a</span> high reliance on <span class="ScopusTermHighlight">coastal</span><span class="ScopusTermHighlight">energy</span><span class="ScopusTermHighlight">infrastructure</span> have <span class="ScopusTermHighlight">a</span> high awareness of <span class="ScopusTermHighlight">sea</span>-<span class="ScopusTermHighlight">level</span><span class="ScopusTermHighlight">rise</span> and plan for future change. With long design lives of <span class="ScopusTermHighlight">energy</span> facilities, anticipating short, medium and long-term environmental and climatic change is crucial in the design, future monitoring and maintenance of facilities. Adaptation of <span class="ScopusTermHighlight">coastal</span><span class="ScopusTermHighlight">infrastructure</span> is of international importance, so will be an ongoing important issue throughout the 21^{<font size="2">st</font>} century. textcopyright 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.</p>},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{1114,

title = {The AVOID programmetextquoterights new simulations of the global benefits of stringent climate change mitigation},

author = {R J Nicholls and SN Gosling and JR O{textquoteright}Hanley and A Gambhir and Rachel Warren and JA Lowe and N W Arnell and C Hope and PM Berry and S Brown},

year  = {2013},

date = {2013-01-01},

journal = {Climatic Change},

volume = {120},

pages = {55-70},

chapter = {55},

abstract = {<p>Quantitative simulations of the global-scale benefits of climate change mitigation are presented, using a harmonised, self-consistent approach based on a single set of climate change scenarios. The approach draws on a synthesis of output from both physically-based and economics-based models, and incorporates uncertainty analyses. Previous studies have projected global and regional climate change and its impacts over the 21st century but have generally focused on analysis of business-as-usual scenarios, with no explicit mitigation policy included. This study finds that both the economics-based and physically-based models indicate that early, stringent mitigation would avoid a large proportion of the impacts of climate change projected for the 2080s. However, it also shows that not all the impacts can now be avoided, so that adaptation would also therefore be needed to avoid some of the potential damage. Delay in mitigation substantially reduces the percentage of impacts that can be avoided, providing strong new quantitative evidence for the need for stringent and prompt global mitigation action on greenhouse gas emissions, combined with effective adaptation, if large, widespread climate change impacts are to be avoided. Energy technology models suggest that such stringent and prompt mitigation action is technologically feasible, although the estimated costs vary depending on the specific modelling approach and assumptions.</p><p> </p>},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{535b,

title = {Spatial variations of sea-level rise and impacts: An application of DIVA},

author = {S Brown and R J Nicholls and J Lowe and J Hinkel},

year  = {2013},

date = {2013-01-01},

journal = {Climatic Change},

pages = {1-14},

chapter = {1},

abstract = {<p>Due to complexities of creating sea-level rise scenarios, impacts of climate-induced sea-level rise are often produced from a limited number of models assuming a global uniform rise in sea level. A greater number of models, including those with a pattern reflecting regional variations would help to assure reliability and a range of projections, indicating where models agree and disagree. This paper determines how nine new patterned-scaled sea-level rise scenarios (plus the uniform and patterned ensemble mean rises) influence global and regional coastal impacts (wetland loss, dry land loss due to erosion and the expected number of people flooded per year by extreme sea levels). The DIVA coastal impacts model was used under an A1B scenario, and assumed defences were not upgraded as conditions evolved. For seven out of nine climate models, impacts occurred at a proportional rate to global sea-level rise. For the remaining two models, higher than average rise in sea level was projected in northern latitudes or around populated coasts thus skewing global impact projections compared with the ensemble global mean. Regional variability in impacts were compared using the ensemble mean uniform and patterned scenarios: The largest relative difference in impacts occurred around the Mediterranean coast, and the largest absolute differences around low-lying populated coasts, such as south, south-east and east Asia. Uniform projections of sea-level rise impacts remain a useful method to determine global impacts, but improved regional scale models of sea-level rise, particularly around semi-enclosed seas and densely populated low-lying coasts will provide improved regional impact projections and a characterisation of their uncertainties. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.</p>},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{1580,

title = {Proportionate adaptation},

author = {JW Hall and S Brown and R J Nicholls and N Pidgeon and RT Watson},

url = {http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n12/full/nclimate1749.html?W},

doi = {10.1038/nclimate1749},

year  = {2012},

date = {2012-11-01},

journal = {Nature Climate change},

volume = {2},

pages = {833-834},

chapter = {833},

abstract = {<p>Adaptation is intended to reduce the harmful impacts of climate change. We expect to incur fewer climate-related losses after adaptation, so we are prepared to bear some cost to obtain the benefits of adaptation. The costs of adaptation take many forms, including the up-front expenses of building infrastructure, installing early warning systems and establishing effective institutions, but also the environmental impacts of some adaptations and the costs of foregoing development opportunities in locations at high risk, such as coastal floodplains. Economic theory suggests that we should be willing to pay for adaptation up to a point at which the marginal benefit of an increment of risk reduction is equal to the cost of buying that increment (<a href="http://www.nature.com/nclimate/journal/v2/n12/full/nclimate1749.html$#$f1">Fig. 1</a>).</p>},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{821,

title = {Sea-level rise impacts on Africa and the effects of mitigation and adaptation: An application of DIVA},

author = {J Hinkel and S Brown and L Exner and R J Nicholls and A Vafeidis and A S Kebede},

isbn = {14363798},

year  = {2012},

date = {2012-01-01},

journal = {Regional Environmental Change},

volume = {12},

pages = {207-224},

chapter = {207},

abstract = {<p>This paper assesses sea-level rise impacts on Africa at continental and national scales including the benefits of mitigation and of applying adaptation measures, considering four scenarios of global mean sea-level rises from 64 to 126 cm in the period of 1995-2100. We find that in 2100, 16-27 million people are expected to be flooded per year, and annual damage costs range between US$ 5 and US$ 9 billion, if no adaptation takes place. Mitigation reduces impacts by 11-36%. Adaptation in the form of building dikes to protect against coastal flooding and nourishing beaches to protect against coastal erosion reduces the number of people flooded by two orders of magnitude and cuts damage costs in half by 2100. Following such a protection strategy would require substantial investment. First, Africa&$#$39;s current adaptation deficit with respect to coastal flooding would need to be addressed. DIVA suggests that a capital investment of US$ 300 billion is required to build dikes adapted to the current surge regime and US$ 3 billion per year for maintenance. In addition, between US$ 2 and US$ 6 billion per year needs to be spent on protecting against future sea-level rise and socio-economic development by 2100. This suggests that protection is not effective from a monetary perspective but may still be desirable when also taking into account the avoided social impact. We conclude that this issue requires further investigation including sub-national scale studies that look at impacts and adaptation in conjunction with the development agenda and consider a wider range of adaptation options and strategies. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.</p>},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{1147,

title = {Sea-level rise and impacts projections under a future scenario with large greenhouse gas emission reductions},

author = {A Pardaens and J Lowe and S Brown and R J Nicholls and D de Gusmao},

year  = {2011},

date = {2011-01-01},

journal = {Geophysical Research Letters},

volume = {38},

chapter = {L12604},

abstract = {Using projections from two coupled climate models (HadCM3C and HadGEM2-AO), we consider the effect on 21st century sea-level rise (SLR) of mitigation policies relative to a scenario of business-as-usual (BAU). Around a third of the global-mean SLR over the century is avoided by a mitigation scenario under which global-mean near surface air temperature stabilises close to the Copenhagen Accord limit of a 2textdegreeC increase. Under BAU (a variant of the A1B scenario) the model-averaged projected SLR for 2090–2099 relative to 1980–1999 is 0.29 m–0.51 m (5%– 95% uncertainties from treatment of land-based ice melt); under mitigation (E1 scenario) it is 0.17 m–0.34 m. This reduction is primarily from reduced thermal expansion. The spatial patterns of regional SLR are fairly dissimilar between the models, but are qualitatively similar across scenarios for a particular model. An impacts model suggests that by the end of the 21st century and without upgrade in defences around 55% of the 84 million additional people flooded per year globally under BAU (from SLR alone) could be avoided under such mitigation. The above projections of SLR follow the methodology of the IPCC Fourth 

Assessment. We have, however, also conducted a sensitivity study of SLR and its impacts where the possibility of accelerated ice sheet dynamics is accounted for.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{1110,

title = {Sea-level rise and its possible impacts given a textquotedblleftbeyond 4 degree world" in the 21st Century},

author = {R J Nicholls and N Marinova and J Lowe and S Brown and P Vellinga and D de Gusmao and J Hinkel and R S J Tol},

year  = {2011},

date = {2011-01-01},

journal = {Philosophical Transactions of the Royal Society},

volume = {369},

pages = {161-181},

chapter = {161},

abstract = {<p>The range of future climate-induced sea-level rise remains highly uncertain with continued concern that large increases in the twenty-first century cannot be ruled out. The biggest source of uncertainty is the response of the large ice sheets of Greenland and west Antarctica. Based on our analysis, a pragmatic estimate of sea-level rise by 2100, for a temperature rise of 4° C or more over the same time frame, is between 0.5 m and 2 m- the probability of rises at the high end is judged to be very low, but of unquantifiable probability. However, if realized, an indicative analysis shows that the impact potential is severe, with the real risk of the forced displacement of up to 187 million people over the century (up to 2.4% of global population). This is potentially avoidable by widespread upgrade of protection, albeit rather costly with up to 0.02 per cent of global domestic product needed, and much higher in certain nations. The likelihood of protection being successfully implemented varies between regions, and is lowest in small islands, Africa and parts of Asia, and hence these regions are the most likely to see coastal abandonment. To respond to these challenges, a multi-track approach is required, which would also be appropriate if a temperature rise of less than 4° C was expected. Firstly, we should monitor sea level to detect any significant accelerations in the rate of rise in a timely manner. Secondly, we need to improve our understanding of the climate-induced processes that could contribute to rapid sea-level rise, especially the role of the two major ice sheets, to produce better models that quantify the likely future rise more precisely. Finally, responses need to be carefully considered via a combination of climate mitigation to reduce the rise and adaptation for the residual rise in sea level. In particular, long-term strategic adaptation plans for the full range of possible sea-level rise (and other change) need to be widely developed. © 2011 The Royal Society.</p>},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{820,

title = {Sea-level rise impacts on Africa and the effects of mitigation and adaptation: an application of DIVA},

author = {J Hinkel and S Brown and L Exner and R J Nicholls and A Vafeidis and A S Kebede},

isbn = {14363798},

year  = {2011},

date = {2011-01-01},

journal = {Regional Environmental Change},

pages = {1-8},

chapter = {1},

abstract = {<p>This paper assesses sea-level rise impacts on Africa at continental and national scales including the benefits of mitigation and of applying adaptation measures, considering four scenarios of global mean sea-level rises from 64 to 126 cm in the period of 1995-2100. We find that in 2100, 16-27 million people are expected to be flooded per year, and annual damage costs range between US$ 5 and US$ 9 billion, if no adaptation takes place. Mitigation reduces impacts by 11-36%. Adaptation in the form of building dikes to protect against coastal flooding and nourishing beaches to protect against coastal erosion reduces the number of people flooded by two orders of magnitude and cuts damage costs in half by 2100. Following such a protection strategy would require substantial investment. First, Africa&$#$39;s current adaptation deficit with respect to coastal flooding would need to be addressed. DIVA suggests that a capital investment of US$ 300 billion is required to build dikes adapted to the current surge regime and US$ 3 billion per year for maintenance. In addition, between US$ 2 and US$ 6 billion per year needs to be spent on protecting against future sea-level rise and socio-economic development by 2100. This suggests that protection is not effective from a monetary perspective but may still be desirable when also taking into account the avoided social impact. We conclude that this issue requires further investigation including sub-national scale studies that look at impacts and adaptation in conjunction with the development agenda and consider a wider range of adaptation options and strategies. © 2011 Springer-Verlag.</p>},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{4717830e7fee49498fd3209a1fd3fe55,

title = {Transitions in modes of coastal adaptation: Addressing blight, engagement and sustainability},

author = {Sally Brown and Emma L. Tompkins and Natalie Suckall and Jon French and Ivan D. Haigh and Eli Lazarus and Robert J. Nicholls and Edmund Penning-Rowsell and Charlie E. L. Thompson and Ian Townend and Sien Plank},

doi = {10.3389/fmars.2023.1153134},

issn = {2296-7745},

journal = {Frontiers in Marine Science},

volume = {10},

publisher = {Frontiers Media S.A.},

abstract = {Coastal defences have long provided protection from erosion and flooding to cities, towns and villages. In many parts of the world, continued defence is being questioned due to both environmental, sustainability and economic considerations. This is exemplified in England and Wales, where strategic Shoreline Management Plans envisage realignment of many protected coasts, often with low population densities, over the coming decades. The policy transition from protection to realignment is often resisted by affected communities and can have high political costs. Whilst some preparations for such transitions have been made, the communities affected are often not fully aware of the implications of policy change, and this brings the potential for blight. In this paper, we investigate the challenges of implementing transitions in coastal policy within England and Wales. The analysis is based on data obtained from three workshops held in 2019 that were attended by council members, engineers, planners, scientists and other relevant professionals. Five conditions are found to promote contention: (i) policy actors with competing priorities and different decision making time frames (immediate to decadal to a century); (ii) divergence between regulations and ad hoc political decisions (e.g. in relation to the demand for new housing); (iii) limited or non-existent funding to support policy transition; (iv) community expectation that protection is forever; and (v) a disconnection between people and ongoing coastal change. Our research indicates that transitions can be better supported through: (1) integrated multi-scalar preparedness for coastal change; (2) an accessible evidence base and future vision to nurture political confidence in adaptation; and (3) defined, time-bound and accessible diverse funding streams to achieve transitions. Critically, these generic actions need to be embedded within the local political and planning system to facilitate transition to more sustainable coasts and their communities.},

note = {Funding information: Research was undertaken at the University of Southampton ethics number 48389. Funding was provided by the Natural Environment Research Council grant NE/S016651/1 ‘Coastal resilience in the face of sea-level rise: making the most of natural systems’, and time in-kind from Bournemouth University (SB) and the University of Leeds (NS).},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}