Tyndall Centre Publications
The following database includes publications by researchers exclusively from the University of East Anglia (UEA) and the University of Manchester.
6705.
Jenkins, Katie; Tompkins, Emma; Mali, Dafydd; Suta, Alex; Nicholls, Robert J.
Using grey literature to document and track climate change adaptation Journal Article
In: npj Climate Action, 2026, ISSN: 2731-9814, (Data availability: No datasets were generated or analysed during the current study).
@article{31548844963446ae8c3768ea5727796e,
title = {Using grey literature to document and track climate change adaptation},
author = {Katie Jenkins and Emma Tompkins and Dafydd Mali and Alex Suta and Robert J. Nicholls},
doi = {10.1038/s44168-026-00424-9},
issn = {2731-9814},
year = {2026},
date = {2026-09-25},
journal = {npj Climate Action},
publisher = {Springer Nature},
abstract = {While some large-scale and government-led adaptation is recorded, small-scale adaptations (e.g., in homes or businesses) are unreported, giving a partial view of national adaptation. Knowing how people adapt enables governments to incentivise and harness individual and bottom-up adaptation to support resilience. Grey literature (e.g. community-group and private sector reports) offers a rich source of adaptation information. Mining this using AI-tools and expert review would support evidence-based adaptation policy and evaluation.},
note = {Data availability: No datasets were generated or analysed during the current study},
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pubstate = {published},
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While some large-scale and government-led adaptation is recorded, small-scale adaptations (e.g., in homes or businesses) are unreported, giving a partial view of national adaptation. Knowing how people adapt enables governments to incentivise and harness individual and bottom-up adaptation to support resilience. Grey literature (e.g. community-group and private sector reports) offers a rich source of adaptation information. Mining this using AI-tools and expert review would support evidence-based adaptation policy and evaluation.
6704.
Adams, Helen; Gini, Giovanna; Dawson, Richard; Fowler, Hayley; Jenkins, Katie; Jones, Stephen; Krishnamoorthy, Shruthi; Pant, Raghav; Paterson, Shona; Toney, Jaime; Yule, Emma; Witton, Rosie; Wolstenholme, Ruth; Males, Jamie
Adaptation as a catalyst for social change Journal Article
In: PLoS Climate, vol. 5, no. 9, pp. e0001052, 2026, ISSN: 2767-3200.
@article{fb85ac48cce242fe95c1094a8f82c420,
title = {Adaptation as a catalyst for social change},
author = {Helen Adams and Giovanna Gini and Richard Dawson and Hayley Fowler and Katie Jenkins and Stephen Jones and Shruthi Krishnamoorthy and Raghav Pant and Shona Paterson and Jaime Toney and Emma Yule and Rosie Witton and Ruth Wolstenholme and Jamie Males},
doi = {10.1371/journal.pclm.0001052},
issn = {2767-3200},
year = {2026},
date = {2026-09-21},
journal = {PLoS Climate},
volume = {5},
number = {9},
pages = {e0001052},
publisher = {Public Library of Science},
abstract = {Adaptation to climate change is currently characterised by ever-increasing costs to maintain the status quo with respect to climate hazards. This gap is worsened by the fiscal austerity that characterises the current political and economic situation in many countries. These cuts reduce societal resilience through neglected public infrastructure, services and civic spaces generating vulnerability to shocks and an everyday lack of opportunity. Here we argue that without addressing economic austerity, the viability of current approaches to adaptation are severely compromised. Thus, engaging with, and shifting, societal values, norms and objectives in decision-making will be central to a more cost-effective and orderly form of adaptation. This requires amplifying the political voice of communities who often lack the power to effect change. In this framing, adaptation goes beyond (but still includes) responding to hazard, placing greater emphasis on investment in people and advancing their wellbeing. Adaptation becomes a political force driving social change and challenging the logic of economic austerity.},
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Adaptation to climate change is currently characterised by ever-increasing costs to maintain the status quo with respect to climate hazards. This gap is worsened by the fiscal austerity that characterises the current political and economic situation in many countries. These cuts reduce societal resilience through neglected public infrastructure, services and civic spaces generating vulnerability to shocks and an everyday lack of opportunity. Here we argue that without addressing economic austerity, the viability of current approaches to adaptation are severely compromised. Thus, engaging with, and shifting, societal values, norms and objectives in decision-making will be central to a more cost-effective and orderly form of adaptation. This requires amplifying the political voice of communities who often lack the power to effect change. In this framing, adaptation goes beyond (but still includes) responding to hazard, placing greater emphasis on investment in people and advancing their wellbeing. Adaptation becomes a political force driving social change and challenging the logic of economic austerity.
6703.
Naz, Falak; Vicedo-Cabrera, Ana M; Jenkins, Katie; Dogan, Tugba; Kysely, Jan; Plavcová, Eva; Urban, Ales
The impact of population ageing on temperature-related mortality projections in the Czech Republic Journal Article
In: Environmental Research: Climate, 2026, ISSN: 2752-5295, (Data availability statement: The mortality data used in this study are anonymised and were obtained from the Institute of Health Information and Statistics of the Czech Republic and the Czech Statistical Office under a data-sharing agreement; therefore, they cannot be made publicly available. Access to these data may be granted upon request to the the original data provider or via the authors (Aleš Urban, urban@ufa.cas.cz). Climate projections used in this study are publicly available through the EURO-CORDEX (https://euro-cordex.net/), while population data were sourced from the Wittgenstein Centre Data Explorer (https://dataexplorer.wittgensteincentre.org/wcde-v2/). To support reproducibility, the exposure-response function coefficients from the first-stage analysis, along with the complete R code used in subsequent analyses, will be made openly available via GitHub (https://github.com/Falak260/Population-ageing.git) and archived in Zenodo (10.5281/zenodo.19224535) within one month of manuscript acceptance. All datasets used are routinely collected and contain no personal identifiable information.).
@article{82e0ac581b5c4b29a1ebdefc1d106199,
title = {The impact of population ageing on temperature-related mortality projections in the Czech Republic},
author = {Falak Naz and Ana M Vicedo-Cabrera and Katie Jenkins and Tugba Dogan and Jan Kysely and Eva Plavcová and Ales Urban},
doi = {10.1088/2752-5295/aea925},
issn = {2752-5295},
year = {2026},
date = {2026-09-17},
journal = {Environmental Research: Climate},
publisher = {IOP Publishing Ltd},
abstract = {Climate change and population ageing are jointly reshaping temperature-related mortality patterns in Europe; however, their combined effects remain insufficiently quantified on the national scale. In the Czech Republic, cold-related mortality has historically exceeded heat-related mortality, but this pattern is expected to shift under future climate and demographic transitions. Here, we projected future heat- and cold-attributable mortality under both climate-only and population ageing scenarios. We estimated age-specific (<75 and ≥75 years) temperature–mortality associations for all 14 NUTS-3 regions using a three-stage time-series modelling framework and combined them with high-resolution EURO-CORDEX climate projections and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway population scenarios under RCP4.5/SSP2 and RCP8.5/SSP5. Heat- and cold-attributable mortalities were projected across four future periods. Heat-attributable mortality increases substantially, rising from 2 deaths historically to 20 deaths by the 2090s under RCP8.5/SSP5. Cold-attributable mortality declines under climate-only scenarios but increases markedly when population ageing is included, reaching 105 deaths by the 2090s and reversing climate-driven reductions. The combined net temperature-related mortality burden increased from 82 deaths in the historical period to 124 under population ageing scenarios, with ageing contributing to 71 additional deaths by the 2070s. Our findings demonstrate that population ageing outweighs climate-driven changes in shaping future temperature-related mortality in the Czech Republic. Ignoring demographic changes leads to a substantial underestimation of future health burdens. Integrating age-specific population projections into climate-health assessments is essential for adaptation planning and public health preparedness in ageing societies.},
note = {Data availability statement: The mortality data used in this study are anonymised and were obtained from the Institute of Health Information and Statistics of the Czech Republic and the Czech Statistical Office under a data-sharing agreement; therefore, they cannot be made publicly available. Access to these data may be granted upon request to the the original data provider or via the authors (Aleš Urban, urban@ufa.cas.cz). Climate projections used in this study are publicly available through the EURO-CORDEX (https://euro-cordex.net/), while population data were sourced from the Wittgenstein Centre Data Explorer (https://dataexplorer.wittgensteincentre.org/wcde-v2/). To support reproducibility, the exposure-response function coefficients from the first-stage analysis, along with the complete R code used in subsequent analyses, will be made openly available via GitHub (https://github.com/Falak260/Population-ageing.git) and archived in Zenodo (10.5281/zenodo.19224535) within one month of manuscript acceptance. All datasets used are routinely collected and contain no personal identifiable information.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
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Climate change and population ageing are jointly reshaping temperature-related mortality patterns in Europe; however, their combined effects remain insufficiently quantified on the national scale. In the Czech Republic, cold-related mortality has historically exceeded heat-related mortality, but this pattern is expected to shift under future climate and demographic transitions. Here, we projected future heat- and cold-attributable mortality under both climate-only and population ageing scenarios. We estimated age-specific (<75 and ≥75 years) temperature–mortality associations for all 14 NUTS-3 regions using a three-stage time-series modelling framework and combined them with high-resolution EURO-CORDEX climate projections and Shared Socioeconomic Pathway population scenarios under RCP4.5/SSP2 and RCP8.5/SSP5. Heat- and cold-attributable mortalities were projected across four future periods. Heat-attributable mortality increases substantially, rising from 2 deaths historically to 20 deaths by the 2090s under RCP8.5/SSP5. Cold-attributable mortality declines under climate-only scenarios but increases markedly when population ageing is included, reaching 105 deaths by the 2090s and reversing climate-driven reductions. The combined net temperature-related mortality burden increased from 82 deaths in the historical period to 124 under population ageing scenarios, with ageing contributing to 71 additional deaths by the 2070s. Our findings demonstrate that population ageing outweighs climate-driven changes in shaping future temperature-related mortality in the Czech Republic. Ignoring demographic changes leads to a substantial underestimation of future health burdens. Integrating age-specific population projections into climate-health assessments is essential for adaptation planning and public health preparedness in ageing societies.
6702.
Jenkins, Katie; Nicholls, Robert James; Freitas, Will
Britain’s most artificial landscape may not survive climate change Journal Article
In: The Conversation, 2026.
@article{88e0e434caae48678865fe23bd425aba,
title = {Britain’s most artificial landscape may not survive climate change},
author = {Katie Jenkins and Robert James Nicholls and Will Freitas},
doi = {10.64628/AB.e5s54cxdy},
year = {2026},
date = {2026-09-16},
journal = {The Conversation},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
6701.
Filingeri, Davide; Blount, Hannah; Esteves, Nuno Koch; Daniels, Thomas; Aceves-Gonzalez, Carlos; Brooks, Katya; Jenkins, Katie; James, Patrick; Sach, Tracey; Nunes, Ana Raquel; Roberts, Tom; Dall’Ora, Chiara; Portillo, Mari Carmen; Gordon, Ralph; Worsley, Peter R; Filingeri, Victoria
Mapping the socio-technical causes of overheating risk and unequal thermal burden in hospitals in England: a qualitative systems inquiry using AcciMap Technical Report
medRxiv 2026.
@techreport{50fb4f8f22944c80b20a912d9bbd6a2d,
title = {Mapping the socio-technical causes of overheating risk and unequal thermal burden in hospitals in England: a qualitative systems inquiry using AcciMap},
author = {Davide Filingeri and Hannah Blount and Nuno Koch Esteves and Thomas Daniels and Carlos Aceves-Gonzalez and Katya Brooks and Katie Jenkins and Patrick James and Tracey Sach and Ana Raquel Nunes and Tom Roberts and Chiara Dall’Ora and Mari Carmen Portillo and Ralph Gordon and Peter R Worsley and Victoria Filingeri},
doi = {10.64898/2026.09.10.26362630},
year = {2026},
date = {2026-09-15},
publisher = {medRxiv},
institution = {medRxiv},
abstract = {Background: Hospital overheating arising from more frequent heatwaves threatens healthcare staff wellbeing, patient safety and service continuity, but is often managed as an estates or seasonal problem. We examined how interacting organisational, infrastructural and experiential conditions sustain overheating vulnerability and unequal thermal burden in hospitals in the south of England. Methods: We conducted a six-phase, multi-source qualitative systems inquiry integrating 129 overheating incident reports from two National Health Service (NHS) hospitals in Hampshire, England, six stakeholder interviews, two focus groups with healthcare staff and patients (n=12), and a national stakeholder refinement focus group (n=4). AI-supported thematic analysis was combined with context-mechanism-outcome synthesis and iterative AcciMap construction, to produce an integrated systems explanation. Results: Twenty themes were consolidated into six interacting explanatory pathways: 1) recognition without durable resilience; 2) hidden visibility; 3) workaround-based resilience; 4) unequal adaptive capacity; 5) underuse of emergency preparedness and business-continuity systems; 6) institutional framing. The analysis indicated that, within the hospital settings investigated, overheating persisted despite recognition because ownership, information, resources and delivery capacity were fragmented across system levels. Frontline workarounds sustained care but could conceal thermal burden and defer structural adaptation. Staff and patients had unequal capacity to regulate exposure because of differences in mobility, autonomy, physiology, clinical dependency and occupational role. Existing preparedness systems offered a route from seasonal reaction to anticipatory action, but overheating was not consistently embedded within them. The AcciMap showed how shared factors connected the six pathways and identified coordinated intervention entry points across monitoring, governance, preparedness, service delivery and infrastructure. Conclusions: Overheating in hospitals in England is best understood as a socio-technical patient-safety and adaptation challenge, not a single-domain estates problem. Our analysis indicates that durable resilience requires environmental intelligence linked to accountable decisions, support for staff and patient adaptation, activation of preparedness systems and long-term infrastructure change.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
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}
Background: Hospital overheating arising from more frequent heatwaves threatens healthcare staff wellbeing, patient safety and service continuity, but is often managed as an estates or seasonal problem. We examined how interacting organisational, infrastructural and experiential conditions sustain overheating vulnerability and unequal thermal burden in hospitals in the south of England. Methods: We conducted a six-phase, multi-source qualitative systems inquiry integrating 129 overheating incident reports from two National Health Service (NHS) hospitals in Hampshire, England, six stakeholder interviews, two focus groups with healthcare staff and patients (n=12), and a national stakeholder refinement focus group (n=4). AI-supported thematic analysis was combined with context-mechanism-outcome synthesis and iterative AcciMap construction, to produce an integrated systems explanation. Results: Twenty themes were consolidated into six interacting explanatory pathways: 1) recognition without durable resilience; 2) hidden visibility; 3) workaround-based resilience; 4) unequal adaptive capacity; 5) underuse of emergency preparedness and business-continuity systems; 6) institutional framing. The analysis indicated that, within the hospital settings investigated, overheating persisted despite recognition because ownership, information, resources and delivery capacity were fragmented across system levels. Frontline workarounds sustained care but could conceal thermal burden and defer structural adaptation. Staff and patients had unequal capacity to regulate exposure because of differences in mobility, autonomy, physiology, clinical dependency and occupational role. Existing preparedness systems offered a route from seasonal reaction to anticipatory action, but overheating was not consistently embedded within them. The AcciMap showed how shared factors connected the six pathways and identified coordinated intervention entry points across monitoring, governance, preparedness, service delivery and infrastructure. Conclusions: Overheating in hospitals in England is best understood as a socio-technical patient-safety and adaptation challenge, not a single-domain estates problem. Our analysis indicates that durable resilience requires environmental intelligence linked to accountable decisions, support for staff and patient adaptation, activation of preparedness systems and long-term infrastructure change.
6700.
Mahony, Martin; Castree, Noel
The Anthropocene Book
Routledge, United States, 2026, ISBN: 9780367754181.
@book{370a55e9e73743398eb044f7bcb723ac,
title = {The Anthropocene},
author = {Martin Mahony and Noel Castree},
isbn = {9780367754181},
year = {2026},
date = {2026-09-15},
publisher = {Routledge},
address = {United States},
series = {Key Ideas in Geography},
abstract = {'The Anthropocene' is one of the most important scientific concepts of our time. It is also one of the most contested. This book offers the most advanced yet accessible introduction to the complex and often heated debates about the meaning, nature and implications of the Anthropocene. Drawing on the work of physical and human geographers, alongside geographically-informed contributions from natural and physical scientists, sociologists, historians, anthropologists, philosophers, and others, this book maps and critically evaluates the implications of the Anthropocene for the discipline of Geography and for geographical thinking across other fields. It asks: Does the Anthropocene mark the start of the greatest environmental crisis in history? Which humans are most responsible? What impacts is it having on human well-being and the natural world? What needs to be done to mitigate its threats, and who will bear the costs? How does ‘the Anthropocene’ challenge the conduct of research, policy and activism around issues like environmental justice, resilience, nature conservation, or decolonisation? Is 'the Anthropocene' even the best name for this new age? Essential reading for university students and researchers in Geography and beyond, this book also appeals to general readers interested in understanding how human actions are reshaping the Earth and what this means for the future of people and planet.},
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'The Anthropocene' is one of the most important scientific concepts of our time. It is also one of the most contested. This book offers the most advanced yet accessible introduction to the complex and often heated debates about the meaning, nature and implications of the Anthropocene. Drawing on the work of physical and human geographers, alongside geographically-informed contributions from natural and physical scientists, sociologists, historians, anthropologists, philosophers, and others, this book maps and critically evaluates the implications of the Anthropocene for the discipline of Geography and for geographical thinking across other fields. It asks: Does the Anthropocene mark the start of the greatest environmental crisis in history? Which humans are most responsible? What impacts is it having on human well-being and the natural world? What needs to be done to mitigate its threats, and who will bear the costs? How does ‘the Anthropocene’ challenge the conduct of research, policy and activism around issues like environmental justice, resilience, nature conservation, or decolonisation? Is 'the Anthropocene' even the best name for this new age? Essential reading for university students and researchers in Geography and beyond, this book also appeals to general readers interested in understanding how human actions are reshaping the Earth and what this means for the future of people and planet.
6699.
Mohamed, Hassan; Greenwood, Naomi; Cooper, Richard J.; Graves, Carolyn; He, Yi
Catchment controls on nutrients at coastal outlets: a national typology for England and Wales Journal Article
In: Journal of Hydrology, vol. 677, no. C, 2026, ISSN: 0022-1694, (Data availability: Full details and workflows of the catchment characterisation, nutrient data processing, and clustering analysis are provided in the project’s GitHub repository (https://github.com/Hassanabubaker/ Coast-Draining-Catchments-Typologies).).
@article{c51508dadce2480fb7a2901faafccefa,
title = {Catchment controls on nutrients at coastal outlets: a national typology for England and Wales},
author = {Hassan Mohamed and Naomi Greenwood and Richard J. Cooper and Carolyn Graves and Yi He},
doi = {10.1016/j.jhydrol.2026.135970},
issn = {0022-1694},
year = {2026},
date = {2026-09-01},
journal = {Journal of Hydrology},
volume = {677},
number = {C},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {Riverine nutrient concentrations at coastal outlets reflect upstream catchment controls and underpin nutrient flux estimates. Existing catchment classifications are not tailored to this scale, limiting their application for interpreting land-to-sea patterns and informing management of marine pressures. This study develops a data-driven typology for 178 coast-draining catchments across England and Wales, grouping them into eight types through geospatial characterisation and clustering. Nutrient concentrations (2000–2024) were retrieved from water quality archives at 271 near-tidal sites.The resulting typology is structured along a topographic gradient, further differentiated by dominant bedrock permeability. A two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) confirmed significant differences between types for NH 4 +, NO 3 − and PO 4 3− (p < 0.001), with a significant seasonal effect for NO 3 − and PO 4 3− only. NO 3 − exhibited strong seasonality in arable lowland low- and high-permeability catchments where winter medians (8.8 and 8.4 mg N/L) exceeded summer values (5.1 and 6.4 mg N/L), reflecting enhanced leaching. NH 4 + showed limited seasonality, with variability governed by point-source inputs. PO 4 3− displayed an inverse seasonal pattern, with higher summer concentrations from reduced dilution of point-source inputs. Despite representing only 1% of the total catchment area, the urban type dominated NH 4 + and PO 4 3− concentrations, peaking in winter for NH 4 + (0.176 mg N/L) and summer for PO 4 3− (0.51 mg P/L), while NO 3 − was controlled by arable types, with increasing urban influence in recent years. These results provide a framework for targeting nutrient management to the dominant controls of each type, supporting more effective nutrient reduction measures under the UK Marine Strategy and OSPAR commitments.},
note = {Data availability: Full details and workflows of the catchment characterisation, nutrient data processing, and clustering analysis are provided in the project’s GitHub repository (https://github.com/Hassanabubaker/ Coast-Draining-Catchments-Typologies).},
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Riverine nutrient concentrations at coastal outlets reflect upstream catchment controls and underpin nutrient flux estimates. Existing catchment classifications are not tailored to this scale, limiting their application for interpreting land-to-sea patterns and informing management of marine pressures. This study develops a data-driven typology for 178 coast-draining catchments across England and Wales, grouping them into eight types through geospatial characterisation and clustering. Nutrient concentrations (2000–2024) were retrieved from water quality archives at 271 near-tidal sites.The resulting typology is structured along a topographic gradient, further differentiated by dominant bedrock permeability. A two-way analysis of variance (ANOVA) confirmed significant differences between types for NH 4 +, NO 3 − and PO 4 3− (p < 0.001), with a significant seasonal effect for NO 3 − and PO 4 3− only. NO 3 − exhibited strong seasonality in arable lowland low- and high-permeability catchments where winter medians (8.8 and 8.4 mg N/L) exceeded summer values (5.1 and 6.4 mg N/L), reflecting enhanced leaching. NH 4 + showed limited seasonality, with variability governed by point-source inputs. PO 4 3− displayed an inverse seasonal pattern, with higher summer concentrations from reduced dilution of point-source inputs. Despite representing only 1% of the total catchment area, the urban type dominated NH 4 + and PO 4 3− concentrations, peaking in winter for NH 4 + (0.176 mg N/L) and summer for PO 4 3− (0.51 mg P/L), while NO 3 − was controlled by arable types, with increasing urban influence in recent years. These results provide a framework for targeting nutrient management to the dominant controls of each type, supporting more effective nutrient reduction measures under the UK Marine Strategy and OSPAR commitments.
6698.
Skinner, D; Robbins, Connor; Inglis, Gordon N.; Joshi, Manoj; Langdon, Peter; Matthews, Adrian; Peaple, Mark; Osborn, Timothy; sear,
Decadal-scale drivers of South Pacific hydroclimate variability Journal Article
In: Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society, 2026, ISSN: 0035-9009.
@article{cdd234165c5c4c7cae1d6433d0de14e0,
title = {Decadal-scale drivers of South Pacific hydroclimate variability},
author = {D Skinner and Connor Robbins and Gordon N. Inglis and Manoj Joshi and Peter Langdon and Adrian Matthews and Mark Peaple and Timothy Osborn and sear},
doi = {10.1002/qj.70312},
issn = {0035-9009},
year = {2026},
date = {2026-08-31},
journal = {Quarterly Journal of the Royal Meteorological Society},
publisher = {Wiley},
abstract = {The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is the dominant perennial rainfall feature of the Southern Hemisphere, yet the physical mechanisms driving its variability on decadal to multidecadal time scales are poorly understood. Using prescribed sea-surface temperature (SST) perturbations in the atmosphere-only IGCM4 model, we investigate the direct atmospheric mechanisms by which three major modes of low-frequency climate variability – the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV), and Southern Ocean SST-driven mid-latitude jet shifts – modulate South Pacific hydroclimate. IPO forcing produces the most substantial and spatially coherent SPCZ response: a positive IPO anomaly drives a north-eastward shift in the SPCZ, while a negative IPO shifts the SPCZ southwestward. This behaviour arises from coupled dynamic and thermodynamic changes, with anomalous moisture convergence – rather than altered Rossby wave refraction – emerging as the dominant control on SPCZ position. By contrast, AMV-forced atmospheric teleconnections exert only weak and statistically insignificant impacts on South Pacific precipitation; any apparent signal is best interpreted as an alias of IPO-like SST anomalies in the Pacific. Southern Ocean SST anomalies induce significant shifts in the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitude jet and associated Hadley–Ferrel cell structure, but these changes do not generate a coherent SPCZ displacement. Instead, precipitation changes reflect large-scale regions of anomalous ascent and descent, driven by Hadley and Ferrel cell shifts, rather than modifications to SPCZ dynamics.},
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The South Pacific Convergence Zone (SPCZ) is the dominant perennial rainfall feature of the Southern Hemisphere, yet the physical mechanisms driving its variability on decadal to multidecadal time scales are poorly understood. Using prescribed sea-surface temperature (SST) perturbations in the atmosphere-only IGCM4 model, we investigate the direct atmospheric mechanisms by which three major modes of low-frequency climate variability – the Interdecadal Pacific Oscillation (IPO), Atlantic Multidecadal Variability (AMV), and Southern Ocean SST-driven mid-latitude jet shifts – modulate South Pacific hydroclimate. IPO forcing produces the most substantial and spatially coherent SPCZ response: a positive IPO anomaly drives a north-eastward shift in the SPCZ, while a negative IPO shifts the SPCZ southwestward. This behaviour arises from coupled dynamic and thermodynamic changes, with anomalous moisture convergence – rather than altered Rossby wave refraction – emerging as the dominant control on SPCZ position. By contrast, AMV-forced atmospheric teleconnections exert only weak and statistically insignificant impacts on South Pacific precipitation; any apparent signal is best interpreted as an alias of IPO-like SST anomalies in the Pacific. Southern Ocean SST anomalies induce significant shifts in the Southern Hemisphere mid-latitude jet and associated Hadley–Ferrel cell structure, but these changes do not generate a coherent SPCZ displacement. Instead, precipitation changes reflect large-scale regions of anomalous ascent and descent, driven by Hadley and Ferrel cell shifts, rather than modifications to SPCZ dynamics.
6697.
Sylvester, Ruth E.; Abwe, Furaha G.; Bartram, Jamie; Brainard, Julii; Geere, Jo-Anne; Hanh, Tran Thi Tuyet; Hoyos, Natalia; Hunter, Paul; Kabakama, Severin; Kuchelekana, Kondwani; Mekala, Snehalatha; Longwe, Wezzie; Lukaaya, Dennis; Arroyo, Hugo Andres Macareno; Mapemba, Daniel; Mcconochie, Megan; Pachongo, Carolina Montoya; Muula, Adamson S.; Mulogo, Edgar Mugema; Simkonda, Mwizapanyuma; Mwebembezi, Fred; Ngonzi, Joseph; Nikolaos, Nikitas; Ntaro, Moses; Simbewe, Patrick; Sambala, Evanson; Sunday, Patrick; Sedekia, Yovitha M.; Trang, Do Thi Hanh; Watson-Jones, Deborah; Hutchings, Paul
Pathways of resilience: a fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis of healthcare systems resilience to extreme weather events Journal Article
In: BMC Health Services Research, 2026, ISSN: 1472-6963, (Availability of Data and Materials: The datasets used and analysed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request. Data summaries of each case study are provided in the Supplementary Information files.).
@article{543b598deb044f75aa05d3089c5bb022,
title = {Pathways of resilience: a fuzzy-set qualitative comparative analysis of healthcare systems resilience to extreme weather events},
author = {Ruth E. Sylvester and Furaha G. Abwe and Jamie Bartram and Julii Brainard and Jo-Anne Geere and Tran Thi Tuyet Hanh and Natalia Hoyos and Paul Hunter and Severin Kabakama and Kondwani Kuchelekana and Snehalatha Mekala and Wezzie Longwe and Dennis Lukaaya and Hugo Andres Macareno Arroyo and Daniel Mapemba and Megan Mcconochie and Carolina Montoya Pachongo and Adamson S. Muula and Edgar Mugema Mulogo and Mwizapanyuma Simkonda and Fred Mwebembezi and Joseph Ngonzi and Nikitas Nikolaos and Moses Ntaro and Patrick Simbewe and Evanson Sambala and Patrick Sunday and Yovitha M. Sedekia and Do Thi Hanh Trang and Deborah Watson-Jones and Paul Hutchings},
issn = {1472-6963},
year = {2026},
date = {2026-08-10},
journal = {BMC Health Services Research},
publisher = {BioMed Central},
abstract = {Background: Increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events (EWEs) threaten healthcare services globally, with particularly acute risks in low-resource settings. While health system resilience is widely discussed, there is limited empirical evidence on how it is enacted in practice across complex, real-world systems, particularly beyond infectious disease contexts. Methods: We analysed 18 case studies from diverse global contexts, examining how EWEs affected four interrelated system levels: healthcare facilities, local health systems, communities, and interconnected infrastructures. We applied fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) to identify configurations of vulnerability, adaptive capacity, and external support associated with two outcomes: service continuity and healthcare facility recovery. Results: Four distinct resilience pathways were identified. These demonstrate that resilience emerges from cross-scale configurations rather than individual system components, with local adaptive capacity playing a key role in maintaining service continuity. Where high vulnerability across multiple system levels exceeded local capacity, resilience depended on external support, which was associated with eventual recovery but not with continuity of services. Across cases, workforce factors—including staff wellbeing, safety, and morale—were critical in shaping system response. Conclusion: This study provides empirical evidence that health system resilience to EWEs is a multi-scalar process. The identified pathways offer practice-based insights for strengthening resilience, highlighting the importance of cross-system coordination, planning for capacity limits and phased operational response escalation, and investing in the health workforce as a central component of effective response and recovery.},
note = {Availability of Data and Materials: The datasets used and analysed during the current study are available from the corresponding author on reasonable request. Data summaries of each case study are provided in the Supplementary Information files.},
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tppubtype = {article}
}
Background: Increasing frequency and intensity of extreme weather events (EWEs) threaten healthcare services globally, with particularly acute risks in low-resource settings. While health system resilience is widely discussed, there is limited empirical evidence on how it is enacted in practice across complex, real-world systems, particularly beyond infectious disease contexts. Methods: We analysed 18 case studies from diverse global contexts, examining how EWEs affected four interrelated system levels: healthcare facilities, local health systems, communities, and interconnected infrastructures. We applied fuzzy-set Qualitative Comparative Analysis (fsQCA) to identify configurations of vulnerability, adaptive capacity, and external support associated with two outcomes: service continuity and healthcare facility recovery. Results: Four distinct resilience pathways were identified. These demonstrate that resilience emerges from cross-scale configurations rather than individual system components, with local adaptive capacity playing a key role in maintaining service continuity. Where high vulnerability across multiple system levels exceeded local capacity, resilience depended on external support, which was associated with eventual recovery but not with continuity of services. Across cases, workforce factors—including staff wellbeing, safety, and morale—were critical in shaping system response. Conclusion: This study provides empirical evidence that health system resilience to EWEs is a multi-scalar process. The identified pathways offer practice-based insights for strengthening resilience, highlighting the importance of cross-system coordination, planning for capacity limits and phased operational response escalation, and investing in the health workforce as a central component of effective response and recovery.
6696.
Conti, Costanza; Parida, Prashant; Hall, Andy; Rao, Nitya; Gopi, Girigan; King, E. D. I. Oliver; Swaminathan, Soumya
Reinterpreting scaling as synchronising and sequencing: A case study of food system innovation in eastern India Journal Article
In: Agricultural Systems, vol. 237, 2026, ISSN: 0308-521X, (Data availability: Data will be made available on request.).
@article{97f954dabdbc488fb24ccad61dd7e40f,
title = {Reinterpreting scaling as synchronising and sequencing: A case study of food system innovation in eastern India},
author = {Costanza Conti and Prashant Parida and Andy Hall and Nitya Rao and Girigan Gopi and E. D. I. Oliver King and Soumya Swaminathan},
doi = {10.1016/j.agsy.2026.104831},
issn = {0308-521X},
year = {2026},
date = {2026-08-01},
journal = {Agricultural Systems},
volume = {237},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {Context: While early debates on scaling focused on widespread technology adoption on farm, the food system transformation agenda has reframed scaling as a systemic process requiring interconnected changes at the system level. Yet, what enables scaling processes to succeed, going beyond pilot projects, remains unclear. Objective: This case study revisits how scaling of sustainable innovation can occur, shedding light both on the features of a scaling process that can trigger food system transformation, and the roles organisations can play in supporting such scaling. The case explores these questions by examining efforts of the M. S. Swaminathan Research Foundation (MSSRF) to reintroduce and expand production and consumption of millets in Odisha, India. Methods: We conduct a purposive search for relevant information, including published and unpublished MSSRF documents, academic and technical literature, and key informant interviews. Interviews were conducted with custodian farmers, rural consumers, MSSRF staff with direct knowledge of historical interventions, government advisors, and policymakers. The data was organised historically to showcase the evolution of the scaling process. Results and Conclusions: The case study reveals how the scaling process happened across different but interconnected spheres —the local sphere, the networks, relationships and intermediation sphere, and the system sphere. Within each sphere, MSSRF tackled several elements: technologies, infrastructure, behaviours and values, Research & Development (R&D) trajectories, policies and institutions, and political economy. Once these elements had undergone change in one sphere, the organisation could move to operating in the next sphere. In the case of MSSRF, at the local sphere, this meant building technologies and infrastructure through participatory R&D while setting up community institutions to help behavioural shifts. The initial credibility built for the innovation at the local sphere allowed the organisation to move to the next – with much broader visibility and expansion of technology, infrastructure, R&D, community institutions as well as policy interest. This interest and expansion once again led to changes in the system sphere, where the innovation was anchored at the state level through the set-up of an ad-hoc innovation-mission, further bolstering the changes in the multiple elements. This finding highlights an important feature of scaling: both synchronised (i.e. happening at the same time) and sequenced (i.e. happening in a temporally coordinated manner) changes are critical for interventions to move beyond the local sphere towards the system sphere. Significance: The paper offers a novel conceptual framework (the 3S framework) for understanding scaling as a process that requires both synchronisation across multiple system scales and strategic sequencing over time. Without synchronisation and sequencing, “pilots never fail but never scale”, as they find themselves unable to couple acceptability and change at the local level, with sustained engagement and efforts to “move up” to the next spheres, which would ultimately achieve scaling. The paper then points to the importance of multifunctional organisations capable of operating across different scales and successfully performing a synchronisation and sequencing function, scaling innovation and moving towards the broader transformation of the food system.},
note = {Data availability: Data will be made available on request.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Context: While early debates on scaling focused on widespread technology adoption on farm, the food system transformation agenda has reframed scaling as a systemic process requiring interconnected changes at the system level. Yet, what enables scaling processes to succeed, going beyond pilot projects, remains unclear. Objective: This case study revisits how scaling of sustainable innovation can occur, shedding light both on the features of a scaling process that can trigger food system transformation, and the roles organisations can play in supporting such scaling. The case explores these questions by examining efforts of the M. S. Swaminathan Research Foundation (MSSRF) to reintroduce and expand production and consumption of millets in Odisha, India. Methods: We conduct a purposive search for relevant information, including published and unpublished MSSRF documents, academic and technical literature, and key informant interviews. Interviews were conducted with custodian farmers, rural consumers, MSSRF staff with direct knowledge of historical interventions, government advisors, and policymakers. The data was organised historically to showcase the evolution of the scaling process. Results and Conclusions: The case study reveals how the scaling process happened across different but interconnected spheres —the local sphere, the networks, relationships and intermediation sphere, and the system sphere. Within each sphere, MSSRF tackled several elements: technologies, infrastructure, behaviours and values, Research & Development (R&D) trajectories, policies and institutions, and political economy. Once these elements had undergone change in one sphere, the organisation could move to operating in the next sphere. In the case of MSSRF, at the local sphere, this meant building technologies and infrastructure through participatory R&D while setting up community institutions to help behavioural shifts. The initial credibility built for the innovation at the local sphere allowed the organisation to move to the next – with much broader visibility and expansion of technology, infrastructure, R&D, community institutions as well as policy interest. This interest and expansion once again led to changes in the system sphere, where the innovation was anchored at the state level through the set-up of an ad-hoc innovation-mission, further bolstering the changes in the multiple elements. This finding highlights an important feature of scaling: both synchronised (i.e. happening at the same time) and sequenced (i.e. happening in a temporally coordinated manner) changes are critical for interventions to move beyond the local sphere towards the system sphere. Significance: The paper offers a novel conceptual framework (the 3S framework) for understanding scaling as a process that requires both synchronisation across multiple system scales and strategic sequencing over time. Without synchronisation and sequencing, “pilots never fail but never scale”, as they find themselves unable to couple acceptability and change at the local level, with sustained engagement and efforts to “move up” to the next spheres, which would ultimately achieve scaling. The paper then points to the importance of multifunctional organisations capable of operating across different scales and successfully performing a synchronisation and sequencing function, scaling innovation and moving towards the broader transformation of the food system.
6695.
Luijendijk, Arjen P.; Kras, Etienne; Galvez, Luis Rodriguez; Calkoen, Floris; Skoulikaris, Charalampos; Loukogeorgaki, Eva; Thieblemont, Remi; Bascoul, Vincent; Romao, Susano; Hamley, Jacinta; Sayers, Paul; Nicholls, Robert; Melet, Angelique; Cozannet, Goneri
Developing a cloud-based service offering actionable coastal climate risk and adaptation data across Europe Journal Article
In: Climate Services, vol. 43, 2026, ISSN: 2405-8807, (Data availability: EDITO: https://coclico.lab.dive.edito.eu (CoCliCo (Original data))).
@article{d1090465c5e0484ca9c3a290de67d901,
title = {Developing a cloud-based service offering actionable coastal climate risk and adaptation data across Europe},
author = {Arjen P. Luijendijk and Etienne Kras and Luis Rodriguez Galvez and Floris Calkoen and Charalampos Skoulikaris and Eva Loukogeorgaki and Remi Thieblemont and Vincent Bascoul and Susano Romao and Jacinta Hamley and Paul Sayers and Robert Nicholls and Angelique Melet and Goneri Cozannet},
doi = {10.1016/j.cliser.2026.100678},
issn = {2405-8807},
year = {2026},
date = {2026-08-01},
journal = {Climate Services},
volume = {43},
publisher = {Elsevier},
abstract = {Coastal zones face increasing climate-driven hazards such as sea-level rise, storm surges, flooding and erosion, threatening infrastructure and ecosystems. Addressing the need for actionable climate information in adaptation planning, we developed an integrated Coastal Climate Core Services platform for Europe that consolidates sea-level projections, flood and erosion maps, exposure data, damage estimates, and adaptation options into a unified, cloud-based service. Co-designed with national authorities, municipal planners, and infrastructure owners, the platform offers an interactive web viewer for non-experts and a collaborative coding environment for advanced users. It delivers localized, FAIR(Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, Reusable)-compliant data supporting evidence-based adaptation planning and compliance with European frameworks. By bridging scientific data and operational climate services, this platform (https://platform.coclicoservices.eu) enhances climate resilience and informs strategic coastal risk management across Europe and shows how a broad-scale coastal climate service can be delivered.},
note = {Data availability: EDITO: https://coclico.lab.dive.edito.eu (CoCliCo (Original data))},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Coastal zones face increasing climate-driven hazards such as sea-level rise, storm surges, flooding and erosion, threatening infrastructure and ecosystems. Addressing the need for actionable climate information in adaptation planning, we developed an integrated Coastal Climate Core Services platform for Europe that consolidates sea-level projections, flood and erosion maps, exposure data, damage estimates, and adaptation options into a unified, cloud-based service. Co-designed with national authorities, municipal planners, and infrastructure owners, the platform offers an interactive web viewer for non-experts and a collaborative coding environment for advanced users. It delivers localized, FAIR(Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, Reusable)-compliant data supporting evidence-based adaptation planning and compliance with European frameworks. By bridging scientific data and operational climate services, this platform (https://platform.coclicoservices.eu) enhances climate resilience and informs strategic coastal risk management across Europe and shows how a broad-scale coastal climate service can be delivered.
6694.
Carmichael, Fiona; Darko, Christian K.; Vasilakos, Nicholas
Unequal from the start? Children's life histories and their employment outcomes in India. Journal Article
In: Oxford Development Studies, 2026, ISSN: 1360-0818, (Data availability statement: The data that support the findings of this study are available in Young Lives at http://doi.org/10.5255/UKDA-SN-7483-2).
@article{4ff2af95ef844ce7a01717abefd8dd4c,
title = {Unequal from the start? Children's life histories and their employment outcomes in India.},
author = {Fiona Carmichael and Christian K. Darko and Nicholas Vasilakos},
issn = {1360-0818},
year = {2026},
date = {2026-07-31},
journal = {Oxford Development Studies},
publisher = {Routledge},
abstract = {Five waves of the Young Lives Indian survey are analysed using sequence and regression analysis. Four clusters of individuals sharing similar life histories are identified. The life histories reflect aspects of childhood and family circumstances measured by living conditions, health and exposure to family and economic shocks. Regression analysis investigates how different life histories and gender impact employment outcomes at age 22. The results show that accumulation of (dis)advantages over children’s lives helps to explain inequalities in employment and earnings. At age 22, those who have led wealthier, healthier, more stable lives have higher earnings but are less likely to be employed. Those from the poorest but most stable cluster are the most likely to be employed, but among women, this group earns the least. For young men, earnings are lowest for those exposed to the most shocks. Policy to equalise employment opportunities in India should therefore aim to improve the living conditions, health and security of disadvantaged young children.},
note = {Data availability statement: The data that support the findings of this study are available in Young Lives at http://doi.org/10.5255/UKDA-SN-7483-2},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Five waves of the Young Lives Indian survey are analysed using sequence and regression analysis. Four clusters of individuals sharing similar life histories are identified. The life histories reflect aspects of childhood and family circumstances measured by living conditions, health and exposure to family and economic shocks. Regression analysis investigates how different life histories and gender impact employment outcomes at age 22. The results show that accumulation of (dis)advantages over children’s lives helps to explain inequalities in employment and earnings. At age 22, those who have led wealthier, healthier, more stable lives have higher earnings but are less likely to be employed. Those from the poorest but most stable cluster are the most likely to be employed, but among women, this group earns the least. For young men, earnings are lowest for those exposed to the most shocks. Policy to equalise employment opportunities in India should therefore aim to improve the living conditions, health and security of disadvantaged young children.
6693.
Bullock, Simon; Gharde, Gaurav; Mason, James; Larkin, Alice
The UK’s international shipping emissions: policy briefing Miscellaneous
2026.
@misc{a900bd321d244d279c131f97940b7b14,
title = {The UK’s international shipping emissions: policy briefing},
author = {Simon Bullock and Gaurav Gharde and James Mason and Alice Larkin},
year = {2026},
date = {2026-07-28},
publisher = {Tyndall Centre},
address = {United Kingdom},
abstract = {The UK Government has committed to develop “bespoke measures” to address its international shipping emissions. Based on shipping sector workshop and interviews, this briefing sets out seven priorities for a UK international shipping climate strategy.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {misc}
}
The UK Government has committed to develop “bespoke measures” to address its international shipping emissions. Based on shipping sector workshop and interviews, this briefing sets out seven priorities for a UK international shipping climate strategy.
6692.
Bullock, Simon; Larkin, Alice; Mason, James
International shipping climate change targets - update Miscellaneous
2026.
@misc{8688c04cab914f2c9a0574b4cd835885,
title = {International shipping climate change targets - update},
author = {Simon Bullock and Alice Larkin and James Mason},
year = {2026},
date = {2026-07-28},
publisher = {Tyndall Centre},
address = {United Kingdom},
abstract = {This 2026 briefing note updates the 2023 academic paper "Are the IMO’s new targets for international shipping compatible with the Paris Climate Agreement?" to reflect most recent data on global CO2 emissions, shipping emissions, remaining carbon budgets and updates in climate science. It sets out new Paris-compatible targets for the international shipping sector},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {misc}
}
This 2026 briefing note updates the 2023 academic paper "Are the IMO’s new targets for international shipping compatible with the Paris Climate Agreement?" to reflect most recent data on global CO2 emissions, shipping emissions, remaining carbon budgets and updates in climate science. It sets out new Paris-compatible targets for the international shipping sector
6691.
Gharde, Gaurav; Bullock, Simon; Mason, James; Larkin, Alice
UK international shipping and climate change - workshop report Miscellaneous
2026.
@misc{8f862c28e0264137855621e5cbf0badd,
title = {UK international shipping and climate change - workshop report},
author = {Gaurav Gharde and Simon Bullock and James Mason and Alice Larkin},
year = {2026},
date = {2026-07-28},
publisher = {Tyndall Centre},
address = {United Kingdom},
abstract = {The UK Government has committed to develop “bespoke measures” to address its international shipping emissions. In Spring 2026, Tyndall Centre researchers conducted 16 interviews and held a workshop with UK shipping experts to discuss what measures the UK should adopt. This overview document is in two parts: • A summary of priorities identified across the workshop and interviews • A detailed report on the workshop content, with a summary of the interviews},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {misc}
}
The UK Government has committed to develop “bespoke measures” to address its international shipping emissions. In Spring 2026, Tyndall Centre researchers conducted 16 interviews and held a workshop with UK shipping experts to discuss what measures the UK should adopt. This overview document is in two parts: • A summary of priorities identified across the workshop and interviews • A detailed report on the workshop content, with a summary of the interviews
6690.
Roșu, Iulian-Alin; Jones, Matthew W.; Grillakis, Manolis; Petrakis, Manolis P.; Kasoar, Matthew; Mourgela, Rafaila-Nikola; Gkounelas, Lampros; Voulgarakis, Apostolos
Canada’s 2023 wildfire smoke caused a 2.8 percent drop in solar power generation, costing two billion dollars Journal Article
In: Communications Earth & Environment, 2026, ISSN: 2662-4435.
@article{f696e5bda42047f5acbec5a4bdad865b,
title = {Canada’s 2023 wildfire smoke caused a 2.8 percent drop in solar power generation, costing two billion dollars},
author = {Iulian-Alin Roșu and Matthew W. Jones and Manolis Grillakis and Manolis P. Petrakis and Matthew Kasoar and Rafaila-Nikola Mourgela and Lampros Gkounelas and Apostolos Voulgarakis},
doi = {10.1038/s43247-026-03860-x},
issn = {2662-4435},
year = {2026},
date = {2026-07-28},
journal = {Communications Earth & Environment},
publisher = {Nature Research},
abstract = {The record-breaking 2023 Canadian wildfires led to extreme emissions of aerosols, with plumes extending across the Northern Hemisphere. This study highlights the potential impact of such emissions on photovoltaic energy production across North America and Europe using a state-of-the-art Earth system model. Our results show substantial radiative and temperature anomalies during May–September 2023, with radiative impacts leading to a total 5-monthly modelled photovoltaic production deficit of −6.38 ± 8.86 terawatt hours (one standard deviation) across North America and Europe (2.8% of total 5-monthly photovoltaic generation). The carbon burden of this solar power production loss is estimated at 2.083 ± 2.656 megatons of carbon dioxide (one standard deviation), with a total economic deficit of 1.88 ± 2.71 billion US dollars (one standard deviation). Despite greater North America modelled photovoltaic losses, the associated monetary deficit is higher in Europe. These findings emphasise that resilience of photovoltaic production can be challenged by large-scale wildfire events, highlighting the need for integrated transnational and intercontinental strategies in climate mitigation, energy security, and wildfire prevention.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
The record-breaking 2023 Canadian wildfires led to extreme emissions of aerosols, with plumes extending across the Northern Hemisphere. This study highlights the potential impact of such emissions on photovoltaic energy production across North America and Europe using a state-of-the-art Earth system model. Our results show substantial radiative and temperature anomalies during May–September 2023, with radiative impacts leading to a total 5-monthly modelled photovoltaic production deficit of −6.38 ± 8.86 terawatt hours (one standard deviation) across North America and Europe (2.8% of total 5-monthly photovoltaic generation). The carbon burden of this solar power production loss is estimated at 2.083 ± 2.656 megatons of carbon dioxide (one standard deviation), with a total economic deficit of 1.88 ± 2.71 billion US dollars (one standard deviation). Despite greater North America modelled photovoltaic losses, the associated monetary deficit is higher in Europe. These findings emphasise that resilience of photovoltaic production can be challenged by large-scale wildfire events, highlighting the need for integrated transnational and intercontinental strategies in climate mitigation, energy security, and wildfire prevention.
6689.
Torres-Vázquez, Miguel Ángel; Segura-Garcia, Carlota; Turco, Marco; Khairoun, Amin; Pettinari, M. Lucrecia; Solano-Romero, Erika; García, Mariano; Oliva, Patricia; Jones, Matthew W.; Chuvieco, Emilio
MRBA60: Long-term consistent global burned area dataset from Sentinel-3 and MODIS products Journal Article
In: Scientific Data, 2026, ISSN: 2052-4463.
@article{75f675d0e7784fd9af9a4f1b50e357f8,
title = {MRBA60: Long-term consistent global burned area dataset from Sentinel-3 and MODIS products},
author = {Miguel Ángel Torres-Vázquez and Carlota Segura-Garcia and Marco Turco and Amin Khairoun and M. Lucrecia Pettinari and Erika Solano-Romero and Mariano García and Patricia Oliva and Matthew W. Jones and Emilio Chuvieco},
doi = {10.1038/s41597-026-07959-w},
issn = {2052-4463},
year = {2026},
date = {2026-07-25},
journal = {Scientific Data},
publisher = {Nature Research},
abstract = {As the MODIS mission nears its end, ensuring continuity between legacy burned area (BA) records and products from newer sensors is essential for climate applications. Here we present the Medium Resolution Burned Area Grid product version 6.0 (MRBA60), a continuous global BA time series for 2003-present, assembled on a monthly 0.25° grid by combining two components archived in separate Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) entries: the harmonised historical MRBA60H component for 2003–2018 and the FireCCIS311 grid product from 2019 onwards. For 2003–2018, we train biome- and season-specific Random Forest models on the overlap period (2019–2024) between FireCCI51 (based on MODIS 250 m data) and FireCCIS311 (derived from Sentinel-3 SYN 300 m data) BA using auxiliary predictors (active fires, fire radiative power, climate, and vegetation indices), followed by a quantile-mapping bias correction to fit the FireCCIS311 BA distribution better. MRBA60 increases global BA relative to FireCCI51 by textasciitilde1.1 Mkm² of additional BA per year while preserving the reported decline in BA over the past two decades. Validation against Landsat-based and regional high-resolution products generally shows improved agreement compared with FireCCI51 and NASA’s MCD64A1.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
As the MODIS mission nears its end, ensuring continuity between legacy burned area (BA) records and products from newer sensors is essential for climate applications. Here we present the Medium Resolution Burned Area Grid product version 6.0 (MRBA60), a continuous global BA time series for 2003-present, assembled on a monthly 0.25° grid by combining two components archived in separate Centre for Environmental Data Analysis (CEDA) entries: the harmonised historical MRBA60H component for 2003–2018 and the FireCCIS311 grid product from 2019 onwards. For 2003–2018, we train biome- and season-specific Random Forest models on the overlap period (2019–2024) between FireCCI51 (based on MODIS 250 m data) and FireCCIS311 (derived from Sentinel-3 SYN 300 m data) BA using auxiliary predictors (active fires, fire radiative power, climate, and vegetation indices), followed by a quantile-mapping bias correction to fit the FireCCIS311 BA distribution better. MRBA60 increases global BA relative to FireCCI51 by textasciitilde1.1 Mkm² of additional BA per year while preserving the reported decline in BA over the past two decades. Validation against Landsat-based and regional high-resolution products generally shows improved agreement compared with FireCCI51 and NASA’s MCD64A1.
6688.
Bescoby, David; Clarke, Joanne; Okolie, Chukwuma; Nicholls, Robert J.; Simpson, Nicholas P.; Vafeidis, Athanasios T.; Vousdoukas, Michalis Ioannis
Mapping the global distribution of coastal World Heritage Sites: Glo-CoH, a new Global Coastal Heritage dataset Journal Article
In: Scientific Data, vol. 13, no. 1, 2026, ISSN: 2052-4463, (Data availability: Version 2 of the Glo-CoH dataset and all supporting data is available from ZivaHub at the University of Cape Town – https://doi.org/10.25375/uct.28547267. https://figshare.com/s/23e443449ab774999814.).
@article{821db28de28144eaa5b3082e60700f72,
title = {Mapping the global distribution of coastal World Heritage Sites: Glo-CoH, a new Global Coastal Heritage dataset},
author = {David Bescoby and Joanne Clarke and Chukwuma Okolie and Robert J. Nicholls and Nicholas P. Simpson and Athanasios T. Vafeidis and Michalis Ioannis Vousdoukas},
doi = {10.1038/s41597-026-07758-3},
issn = {2052-4463},
year = {2026},
date = {2026-07-24},
journal = {Scientific Data},
volume = {13},
number = {1},
publisher = {Nature Research},
abstract = {Coastal heritage sites face significant global challenges such as flooding and coastal erosion, exacerbated by climate-induced sea-level rise and coastal development. The ability to accurately simulate and assess potential exposure of heritage sites to these hazards has been hampered by a lack of digital high resolution spatial data accurately recording the topographic boundaries of heritage sites. The Glo-CoH dataset contains digitized boundary extents of all the heritage sites inscribed by the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) as World Heritage properties of Outstanding Universal Value that are situated along the global coastline under 20 m Above Mean Sea Level (AMSL). It comprises a total of 1,250 individual serial sites covering the breadth of designated cultural, natural and mixed heritage sites and encompasses an area covering over 235 million hectares. A programme of site digitisation utilised extant site plans and Google Earth worldwide satellite imagery to locate and digitise heritage site boundaries. The quality of the resulting dataset was assessed by applying a mixed qualitative/quantitative validation procedure to a stratified sub-sample, encompassing the quality of source material, site identification, visibility and digitising accuracy. The validation procedure suggests 92% of digitized sites obtain validation scores indicative of optimal digitisation accuracy. The Glo-CoH dataset is made available for geo-spatial analysis and intended for use by researchers and practitioners looking to assess or plan environmental, climatic, economic, infrastructural and societal dimensions relating to coastal heritage at site, city, and regions up to global scales.},
note = {Data availability: Version 2 of the Glo-CoH dataset and all supporting data is available from ZivaHub at the University of Cape Town – https://doi.org/10.25375/uct.28547267. https://figshare.com/s/23e443449ab774999814.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
Coastal heritage sites face significant global challenges such as flooding and coastal erosion, exacerbated by climate-induced sea-level rise and coastal development. The ability to accurately simulate and assess potential exposure of heritage sites to these hazards has been hampered by a lack of digital high resolution spatial data accurately recording the topographic boundaries of heritage sites. The Glo-CoH dataset contains digitized boundary extents of all the heritage sites inscribed by the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) as World Heritage properties of Outstanding Universal Value that are situated along the global coastline under 20 m Above Mean Sea Level (AMSL). It comprises a total of 1,250 individual serial sites covering the breadth of designated cultural, natural and mixed heritage sites and encompasses an area covering over 235 million hectares. A programme of site digitisation utilised extant site plans and Google Earth worldwide satellite imagery to locate and digitise heritage site boundaries. The quality of the resulting dataset was assessed by applying a mixed qualitative/quantitative validation procedure to a stratified sub-sample, encompassing the quality of source material, site identification, visibility and digitising accuracy. The validation procedure suggests 92% of digitized sites obtain validation scores indicative of optimal digitisation accuracy. The Glo-CoH dataset is made available for geo-spatial analysis and intended for use by researchers and practitioners looking to assess or plan environmental, climatic, economic, infrastructural and societal dimensions relating to coastal heritage at site, city, and regions up to global scales.
6687.
Yin, Cong; Abatzoglou, John T.; Jain, Piyush; Sadegh, Mojtaba; Flannigan, Mike D.; Jones, Matthew W.
Fire weather waves drive extreme fires globally Journal Article
In: Communications Earth & Environment, 2026, ISSN: 2662-4435.
@article{9008f76903f546fe8535516aa70ac090,
title = {Fire weather waves drive extreme fires globally},
author = {Cong Yin and John T. Abatzoglou and Piyush Jain and Mojtaba Sadegh and Mike D. Flannigan and Matthew W. Jones},
doi = {10.1038/s43247-026-03858-5},
issn = {2662-4435},
year = {2026},
date = {2026-07-23},
journal = {Communications Earth & Environment},
publisher = {Nature Research},
abstract = {We define fire weather waves as persistent extreme fire weather, which can intensify fire activity by sustaining exceptionally warm, dry, and windy conditions. Here, we use daily fire weather index, fire activity, and meteorological data to examine the impacts of fire weather waves on fires, as well as their patterns and trends across global terrestrial ecoregions. Fire weather waves account for only 4% of days but coincide with 26% of the area burned and nearly half of the top 1% most energetic fires in forested ecoregions. Compared with grassland and shrubland fires, forest fires exhibit a larger and more persistent increase in daily burned area in response to fire weather waves, particularly in Mediterranean forests. Fire weather wave frequency has significantly increased across most burnable lands during 1979–2024. Climate projections indicate that fire weather waves will increase throughout the 21st century. These findings underscore fire weather waves as an essential component of early warning systems to strengthen preparedness for extreme fires.},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
We define fire weather waves as persistent extreme fire weather, which can intensify fire activity by sustaining exceptionally warm, dry, and windy conditions. Here, we use daily fire weather index, fire activity, and meteorological data to examine the impacts of fire weather waves on fires, as well as their patterns and trends across global terrestrial ecoregions. Fire weather waves account for only 4% of days but coincide with 26% of the area burned and nearly half of the top 1% most energetic fires in forested ecoregions. Compared with grassland and shrubland fires, forest fires exhibit a larger and more persistent increase in daily burned area in response to fire weather waves, particularly in Mediterranean forests. Fire weather wave frequency has significantly increased across most burnable lands during 1979–2024. Climate projections indicate that fire weather waves will increase throughout the 21st century. These findings underscore fire weather waves as an essential component of early warning systems to strengthen preparedness for extreme fires.
6686.
Braunholtz-Speight, Tim; Sharmina, Maria; Pappas, Dimitrios; Hardy, Jeff
Citizen finance for a just energy transition? Analysing UK experience, and exploring potential for smart local energy systems Journal Article
In: Energy Research & Social Science, 2026, ISSN: 2214-6296.
@article{fe02eb4646b046dca83531b2996866f7,
title = {Citizen finance for a just energy transition? Analysing UK experience, and exploring potential for smart local energy systems},
author = {Tim Braunholtz-Speight and Maria Sharmina and Dimitrios Pappas and Jeff Hardy},
issn = {2214-6296},
year = {2026},
date = {2026-07-22},
journal = {Energy Research & Social Science},
publisher = {Elsevier BV},
keywords = {},
pubstate = {published},
tppubtype = {article}
}
