Uncertainty Analysis in CIAS

The SoftIAM portal includes the facility to implement Latin hypercube experimental to   facilitate formal uncertainty analysis. The portal allows the user to choose the (marginal) distribution for any subset of the parameters present in the model, and to specify the total number of model runs performed.

The user may specify any of a wide range of statistical distributions for the parameter including the normal, lognormal, uniform, triangular, or beta distributions. One may also specify the Davies distribution a distribution specifically designed for use in risk assessment.

In CIAS Latin hypercube sampling is used to understand the implications of uncertainties in parameters in the simple climate model MAGICC. The specific parameters that we vary are the climate sensitivity (defined as the equilibrium global mean temperature increase for a doubling of atmospheric CO2), the ocean mixing rate (i.e., how quickly the warming at the surface is diffused throughout the ocean), and a climate-carbon cycle feedback factor.

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