Aim: To develop and demonstrate a comprehensive approach to analyse, at a national scale, climate-related changes in the reliability of the UK’s electricity system, and to develop tools for quantifying the value of adaptations that would enhance its resilience.
To develop a weather generator for producing scenarios of spatially coincident weather extremes in future climates at a national scale.
To apply a weather typing approach to the Regional Climate Models used by UKCP09 to produce a wind storm component for the weather generator.
To generate spatially and temporally explicit scenarios of future electricity demand and supply, with and without different scales of decentralisation.
To develop models relating changes in the severity of weather related events to failure rate of individual network components.
To quantify the potential impacts of future climate upon the operational resilience and the infrastructure resilience of the overall GB power system.
To explore the societal implications and identify potential barriers to adaptation measures.
Duration: September 2011 - August 2015