This element of the research is comparative and gauges, in Namibia and Mozambique, the extent to which climate change considerations are being incorporated into the business of government. In so doing, it has identified the factors which affect the process:
• Uncertainty around what to adapt to – In Namibia, attempts to downscale general circulation model predictions to the country level have proved inconclusive, especially in terms of the critical variable of rainfall. In Mozambique, the wide range of possible scenarios available, generated by the probabilistic modelling approach that was undertaken, have been difficult for policy makers to translate into concrete policy responses
• Political buy-in – both Namibia and Mozambique have a long list of other urgent priorities which make it difficult to secure commitment to action when the current climate signal is so weak, and when the bulk of the impacts will only be experienced decades ahead. Not surprisingly, therefore, climate change does not figure heavily in the core short and long term national policy documents of either country. Nor is there much engagement with climate change beyond the ministries involved with environmental affairs or disaster risk reduction.
• Money – both countries have an expectation that they should not have to bear the financial costs of responding to climate change. Whilst Mozambique has better-developed policy responses to Namibia as a result of much greater access to donor funding, the funding available is wholly inadequate for the magnitude of response required.
• Capacity – Mozambique has greater capacity to respond to climate change impacts than does Namibia currently. However, neither has a clear vision even of what kinds of capacity to build.
• Donor presence – there is a clear correlation between donor involvement and the importance of climate change on the political agenda. In Mozambique, which has a much greater donor presence, climate change receives much greater attention than in Namibia, a low-middle income country which, because it is increasingly considered a quiet African success story, is experiencing a process of donor disengagement.
Duration: (2008-2009)
Funding: (UK Research Councils NERC, EPSRC, and ESRC)
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