Tyndall Centre Publications

@article{97f954dabdbc488fb24ccad61dd7e40f,

title = {Reinterpreting scaling as synchronising and sequencing: A case study of food system innovation in eastern India},

author = {Costanza Conti and Prashant Parida and Andy Hall and Nitya Rao and Girigan Gopi and E. D. I. Oliver King and Soumya Swaminathan},

doi = {10.1016/j.agsy.2026.104831},

issn = {0308-521X},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-08-01},

journal = {Agricultural Systems},

volume = {237},

publisher = {Elsevier},

abstract = {Context: While early debates on scaling focused on widespread technology adoption on farm, the food system transformation agenda has reframed scaling as a systemic process requiring interconnected changes at the system level. Yet, what enables scaling processes to succeed, going beyond pilot projects, remains unclear. Objective: This case study revisits how scaling of sustainable innovation can occur, shedding light both on the features of a scaling process that can trigger food system transformation, and the roles organisations can play in supporting such scaling. The case explores these questions by examining efforts of the M. S. Swaminathan Research Foundation (MSSRF) to reintroduce and expand production and consumption of millets in Odisha, India. Methods: We conduct a purposive search for relevant information, including published and unpublished MSSRF documents, academic and technical literature, and key informant interviews. Interviews were conducted with custodian farmers, rural consumers, MSSRF staff with direct knowledge of historical interventions, government advisors, and policymakers. The data was organised historically to showcase the evolution of the scaling process. Results and Conclusions: The case study reveals how the scaling process happened across different but interconnected spheres —the local sphere, the networks, relationships and intermediation sphere, and the system sphere. Within each sphere, MSSRF tackled several elements: technologies, infrastructure, behaviours and values, Research & Development (R&D) trajectories, policies and institutions, and political economy. Once these elements had undergone change in one sphere, the organisation could move to operating in the next sphere. In the case of MSSRF, at the local sphere, this meant building technologies and infrastructure through participatory R&D while setting up community institutions to help behavioural shifts. The initial credibility built for the innovation at the local sphere allowed the organisation to move to the next – with much broader visibility and expansion of technology, infrastructure, R&D, community institutions as well as policy interest. This interest and expansion once again led to changes in the system sphere, where the innovation was anchored at the state level through the set-up of an ad-hoc innovation-mission, further bolstering the changes in the multiple elements. This finding highlights an important feature of scaling: both synchronised (i.e. happening at the same time) and sequenced (i.e. happening in a temporally coordinated manner) changes are critical for interventions to move beyond the local sphere towards the system sphere. Significance: The paper offers a novel conceptual framework (the 3S framework) for understanding scaling as a process that requires both synchronisation across multiple system scales and strategic sequencing over time. Without synchronisation and sequencing, “pilots never fail but never scale”, as they find themselves unable to couple acceptability and change at the local level, with sustained engagement and efforts to “move up” to the next spheres, which would ultimately achieve scaling. The paper then points to the importance of multifunctional organisations capable of operating across different scales and successfully performing a synchronisation and sequencing function, scaling innovation and moving towards the broader transformation of the food system.},

note = {Data availability: Data will be made available on request.},

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@article{d1090465c5e0484ca9c3a290de67d901,

title = {Developing a cloud-based service offering actionable coastal climate risk and adaptation data across Europe},

author = {Arjen P. Luijendijk and Etienne Kras and Luis Rodriguez Galvez and Floris Calkoen and Charalampos Skoulikaris and Eva Loukogeorgaki and Remi Thieblemont and Vincent Bascoul and Susano Romao and Jacinta Hamley and Paul Sayers and Robert Nicholls and Angelique Melet and Goneri Cozannet},

doi = {10.1016/j.cliser.2026.100678},

issn = {2405-8807},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-08-01},

journal = {Climate Services},

volume = {43},

publisher = {Elsevier},

abstract = {Coastal zones face increasing climate-driven hazards such as sea-level rise, storm surges, flooding and erosion, threatening infrastructure and ecosystems. Addressing the need for actionable climate information in adaptation planning, we developed an integrated Coastal Climate Core Services platform for Europe that consolidates sea-level projections, flood and erosion maps, exposure data, damage estimates, and adaptation options into a unified, cloud-based service. Co-designed with national authorities, municipal planners, and infrastructure owners, the platform offers an interactive web viewer for non-experts and a collaborative coding environment for advanced users. It delivers localized, FAIR(Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, Reusable)-compliant data supporting evidence-based adaptation planning and compliance with European frameworks. By bridging scientific data and operational climate services, this platform (https://platform.coclicoservices.eu) enhances climate resilience and informs strategic coastal risk management across Europe and shows how a broad-scale coastal climate service can be delivered.},

note = {Data availability: EDITO: https://coclico.lab.dive.edito.eu (CoCliCo (Original data))},

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}

@article{f696e5bda42047f5acbec5a4bdad865b,

title = {Canada’s 2023 wildfire smoke caused a 2.8 percent drop in solar power generation, costing two billion dollars},

author = {Iulian-Alin Roșu and Matthew W. Jones and Manolis Grillakis and Manolis P. Petrakis and Matthew Kasoar and Rafaila-Nikola Mourgela and Lampros Gkounelas and Apostolos Voulgarakis},

doi = {10.1038/s43247-026-03860-x},

issn = {2662-4435},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-07-28},

journal = {Communications Earth & Environment},

publisher = {Nature Research},

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pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{75f675d0e7784fd9af9a4f1b50e357f8,

title = {MRBA60: Long-term consistent global burned area dataset from Sentinel-3 and MODIS products},

author = {Miguel Ángel Torres-Vázquez and Carlota Segura-Garcia and Marco Turco and Amin Khairoun and M. Lucrecia Pettinari and Erika Solano-Romero and Mariano García and Patricia Oliva and Matthew W. Jones and Emilio Chuvieco},

doi = {10.1038/s41597-026-07959-w},

issn = {2052-4463},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-07-25},

journal = {Scientific Data},

publisher = {Nature Research},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{821db28de28144eaa5b3082e60700f72,

title = {Mapping the global distribution of coastal World Heritage Sites: Glo-CoH, a new Global Coastal Heritage dataset},

author = {David Bescoby and Joanne Clarke and Chukwuma Okolie and Robert J. Nicholls and Nicholas P. Simpson and Athanasios T. Vafeidis and Michalis Ioannis Vousdoukas},

doi = {10.1038/s41597-026-07758-3},

issn = {2052-4463},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-07-24},

journal = {Scientific Data},

volume = {13},

number = {1},

publisher = {Nature Research},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{9008f76903f546fe8535516aa70ac090,

title = {Fire weather waves drive extreme fires globally},

author = {Cong Yin and John T. Abatzoglou and Piyush Jain and Mojtaba Sadegh and Mike D. Flannigan and Matthew W. Jones},

doi = {10.1038/s43247-026-03858-5},

issn = {2662-4435},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-07-23},

journal = {Communications Earth & Environment},

publisher = {Nature Research},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{fe02eb4646b046dca83531b2996866f7,

title = {Citizen finance for a just energy transition? Analysing UK experience, and exploring potential for smart local energy systems},

author = {Tim Braunholtz-Speight and Maria Sharmina and Dimitrios Pappas and Jeff Hardy},

issn = {2214-6296},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-07-22},

journal = {Energy Research & Social Science},

publisher = {Elsevier BV},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{5842de23983e4c738db6fc5c070f3e7e,

title = {Microfoundations of Environmental Strategy: How Support and Climate Influence Proximal vs. Distal Employee Green Behaviours},

author = {Duncan Maguire and George Michaelides and Olga Tregaskis},

doi = {10.1002/bse.71267},

issn = {0964-4733},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-07-16},

journal = {Business Strategy and the Environment},

publisher = {Wiley},

abstract = {Employee green behaviour (EGB) is essential for advancing organizational sustainability, yet the role of emotional support mechanisms in fostering different types of EGB remains underexamined. This study examines how perceived organizational support (POS), perceived supervisory support (PSS), and affective commitment interact with a green organizational climate to predict EGB. Distinguishing between proximal (low-complexity) and distal (high-complexity) EGB led to novel understandings of predictive social exchange mechanisms. Using survey data from 408 employees in the UK and USA, results indicate that POS primarily predicts distal EGB, while PSS relates more closely to proximal EGB. Affective commitment emerges as an important mediator for the effects of POS and PSS. Critically, green organizational climate strengthens these relationships, particularly for distal behaviours. These findings highlight the importance of combining supportive workplace relationships with pro-environmental norms to encourage more meaningful sustainability behaviours in employees. This research also informs practical interventions that balance climate initiatives with support in the workplace.},

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pubstate = {published},

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}

@article{2f34d16e7ffc42e4a716bdf244c193a7,

title = {Supply chain resilience in UK seafood processing: lessons from COVID-19},

author = {Rebecca St. Clair and Maria Sharmina},

doi = {10.1016/j.clscn.2026.100353},

issn = {2772-3909},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-07-10},

journal = {Journal of Cleaner Logistics and Supply Chain},

publisher = {Elsevier BV},

abstract = {The UK seafood supply chain's heavy reliance on international trade, with 81% of consumption imported and 70% of production exported, creates vulnerability to global disruptions. While COVID-19 impacts on seafood production are well-documented, the processing sector remains under-researched despite its vital role connecting producers to consumers. This paper examines how UK seafood processing businesses responded to COVID-19 and Brexit disruptions, focusing on flexibility, diversity, and connectivity as key characteristics of resilience. We conduct semi-structured interviews with shellfish companies, fish processors, mixed seafood processors, and industry experts across the UK. We find that during the crisis, UK processors demonstrated flexibility through proactive management, financial stability, and rapid business model pivoting. Businesses with diversified products, customers, labour force, and suppliers showed greater resilience. Local social capital and digital connectivity also strengthened responses, whilst severed international connections particularly challenged export-dependent shellfish processors. To build adaptive capacity, we recommend strengthening industry forums to support geographically isolated processors, developing UK processing capacity to reduce dependence on overseas supply chains, and expanding digital infrastructure for direct-to-consumer sales to counteract future disruptions from labour shortages, consolidation in aquaculture, and volatile export markets. This paper makes a theoretical contribution by further refining conceptualisations of resilience in the context of seafood systems and by characterising three firm-level antecedents for adaptations. It also highlights the relational nature of resilience noting that resilience for one business may not increase the resilience of the system as a whole.},

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@article{bd79354b17ae40b3bdb0d998bc0cbcfa,

title = {Insights lost at points of vulnerability in UK policy evidence gathering on carbon dioxide removal},

author = {Aimie Hope and Naomi Vaughan},

doi = {10.1016/j.envsci.2026.104412},

issn = {1462-9011},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-07-01},

journal = {Environmental Science & Policy},

volume = {181},

publisher = {Elsevier BV},

abstract = {The methods, quantity, and timing of carbon dioxide removal (CDR) is impacted by, and has implications for, decarbonising energy, land use change, agriculture, the earth system response, and global society. Uncertainties in each plus the rapid development of CDR methods and policy, make decision-making challenging. Insights from the social sciences and humanities are underrepresented in CDR decision-making. Qualitative evidence and theoretical insights are challenging to synthesise with quantitative policy outputs and decision tools. Real-world complexities may therefore be missed from feasibility assessments and decision-making around CDR, with consequent risks to delivery. We focus on expert consultation procedures to identify points where real-world insights may be lost. The focus is non-statutory consultations with significant two-way dialogue and multiple stakeholders. Non-statutory processes are less scrutinised and more fluid, with greater scope for the quality of evidence to be impacted by institutional and human biases. Twenty-six semi-structured online interviews were conducted with individuals from NGOs, policy, industry, and academia who work on CDR and related areas. Interviews capture both inside (i.e., policymaker/panel convenor) and outside (i.e., stakeholder/expert) perspectives on evidence gathering procedures. Interviews provide insights into the contexts in which evidence is gathered, which procedures are working well and where changes may promote more robust evidence gathering. We identify points at which insights are lost: (1) expert selection (as this determines the types of evidence heard), (2) during panel sessions (e.g., if some voices are silent or marginalised), and (3) evidence synthesis (e.g., if insights do not fit easily into the intended output).},

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@article{ba5ccbead83d4af5a122e38b3b09da19,

title = {Can Reminders Promote Regular Pro-Environmental Behavior? Experimental Evidence from Peru},

author = {Hanna Fuhrmann-Riebel and Ben D'Exelle and Kristian Lopez Vargas and Sebastian Tonke and Arjan Verschoor},

issn = {0305-750X},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-07-01},

journal = {World Development},

publisher = {Elsevier},

abstract = {Tackling environmental pollution requires a permanent change in regular, repeated behavior of households. Bringing about change in such behavior may require interventions that are not limited to a single point in time, yet little evidence exists on how frequently we need to target households to initiate behavioral change and to form new habits in regular pro-environmental behavior. To fill this gap, we investigate the impact of mobile text reminders on households’ recycling behavior in urban Peru, by randomly varying the frequency of reminders over a nine-week treatment period. We find that reminders increase both the likelihood that households start to recycle, and the frequency of recycling among households that already recycled before the intervention. The effects are stronger if reminders are repeated over a longer period. Our findings suggest that low-cost mobile text reminders can support repeated pro environmental behavior, and that some repetition may be needed to maximize their effectiveness.},

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pubstate = {published},

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}

@article{133b97247ad2470db6255000103c447d,

title = {Resilience-oriented distribution network investment planning framework under windstorm uncertainties with explicit economic valuation},

author = {Maoyuan Yin and Eduardo Alejandro Martínez Ceseña and Jaise Kuriakose},

doi = {10.1016/j.epsr.2026.113592},

issn = {0378-7796},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-06-30},

journal = {Electric Power Systems Research},

volume = {262},

publisher = {Elsevier BV},

abstract = {Power system resilience against high-impact low-probability (HILP) events such as windstorms has become increasingly critical due to the threat of climate change. However, traditional investment planning frameworks typically fail to economically justify resilience enhancements due to the very low probability of HILP events (i.e., their expected value tends to be zero). This study proposes a framework that assigns economic value to specific resilience levels using constraints. A two-stage stochastic mixed-integer linear programming model is formulated with a resilience metric threshold constraint that incentivises resilience enhancement investments regardless of HILP event probabilities, explicitly linking investment costs to resilience levels. Uncertainties from windstorm events are captured using scenarios generated through Monte Carlo simulation based on a spatiotemporal model. Resilience enhancement options including overhead line hardening and distributed generator installation are considered. The framework is validated on a real network, using a cost-resilience Pareto front to provide decision-makers with explicit economic trade-off information.},

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@article{f514ba8fb4c6492b98287dea3835ccff,

title = {The effect of weather on unscheduled healthcare utilisation for mental health conditions 1 in England, 2014–2022.},

author = {Richard Elson and Julii Brainard and Natalia R. Jones and Alex J. Elliot and Iain R. Lake},

doi = {10.3389/fpsyt.2026.1835204},

issn = {1664-0640},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-06-30},

journal = {Frontiers in Psychiatry},

publisher = {Frontiers Media S.A.},

abstract = {Background: Weather conditions have been associated with adverse mental health outcomes, and concern about climate change has increased interest in these relationships. However, much of the existing literature focuses on extreme weather events such as heatwaves or acute clinical outcomes such as suicide. There is less research on the population-level variations in mental health–related healthcare utilisation across the full range of weather conditions. Objective: To examine associations between daily weather conditions and mental health–related healthcare contacts in England using large-scale national surveillance data. Methods: We conducted a retrospective observational study across nine English regions from 1 January 2014 to 31 December 2022. Outcomes were daily counts of unscheduled mental health–related contacts to emergency departments (EDs), general practice out-of-hours (GP OOH), and the NHS 111 telephone advice service. Weather exposures were mean daily temperature (°C), hours of full sunshine, and total daily rainfall (mm). Associations were estimated using distributed lag non-linear models at regional level and synthesised using two-stage multivariate meta-analysis, adjusting for seasonality, long-term trends, day of week, public holidays, and population size. Results: Unscheduled mental health–related healthcare contacts showed modest but consistent associations with temperature and sunshine. Across services, relative risks were higher at increasing temperatures up to approximately 18 °C and on days with fewer hours of sunshine. Sunshine showed the most consistent pattern, with increased healthcare utilisation on days with low sunshine across all services. Rainfall was not consistently associated with healthcare contacts. Age-stratified analyses indicated a U-shaped association between temperature and ED attendances among adults aged over 64 years, with higher utilisation during both colder and warmer conditions. Overall variations in healthcare demand were modest, generally within ±10–20% of typical daily levels. Conclusion: In England, short-term variations in temperature and sunshine are associated with changes in unscheduled mental health–related healthcare utilisation, while rainfall shows little consistent effect. Although effect sizes were modest, these findings have implications for understanding weather-related fluctuations in healthcare demand and for planning mental health services under current and future climate conditions.},

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@article{a29de1ca20174aca8c92431bf7e849cb,

title = {Beyond the “Big 5”: diversifying seafood preferences in South West England},

author = {Ellen Mcharg and Gaetano Grilli and Tiziana Luisetti and Rosalind H. Bark and Silvia Ferrini},

doi = {10.1108/BFJ-08-2025-1054},

issn = {0007-070X},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-06-23},

journal = {British Food Journal},

volume = {128},

number = {13},

pages = {602–625},

publisher = {Emerald Publishing},

abstract = {Purpose: Seafood consumption can support sustainable dietary transitions by reducing reliance on other animal proteins and boosting local food production. Despite UK health advice to “eat two portions of fish per week, including one oily fish”, UK seafood consumption remains low and focuses on mostly imported “Big 5” species (salmon, cod, haddock, tuna and prawns), overlooking many locally caught small oily species (e.g. mackerel, herring and pilchard). To improve food security and public health while reducing the environmental impact of seafood, it is necessary to identify effective ways to encourage local, sustainable seafood consumption, diversifying the species eaten. Design/methodology/approach: Through an online discrete choice experiment in South West England, preferences for fish species, origin, format, sustainability messaging and price were assessed. A split-sample design explored the role of the UK healthy diet guidance, presenting information “nudges” from the NHS or respondent’s supermarket. Findings: The results confirm strong, statistically significant preferences for salmon and cod, which were not influenced by health guidance. Seafood format preferences varied by species, especially for breaded products, suggesting opportunities to promote small oily fish consumption in more desirable formats. Sustainability messages were favoured over none, though their impact on choices was marginal. Originality/value: This study expands the existing literature by systematically exploring preferences and trade-offs across a diverse range of species, going beyond the “Big 5” to assess opportunities and barriers to shift consumption towards small oily fish. In doing so, we consolidate previously fragmented evidence on UK seafood preferences and offer policy-relevant insights for food and health strategies, and the processing and marketing of sustainable seafood.},

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@article{304b68cdb94344fc9be95ad265395463,

title = {Escalating Hydroclimatic Extremes and Volatility in the UK Under 2°C and 4°C Warming},

author = {Yi He and Desmond Manful and Nicole Forstenhäusler and Yingchun Huang and Ben Smith and Qianyu Zha},

doi = {10.1029/2025EF007156},

issn = {2328-4277},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-06-17},

journal = {Earth's Future},

volume = {14},

number = {6},

publisher = {Wiley},

abstract = {Hydrological extremes, including both floods and droughts, are projected to intensify under global warming, yet their joint evolution and variability across temperate catchments remain underexplored. This study uses bias-corrected regional climate projections from the UK Climate Projections 2018 (UKCP18) and a distributed HBV-TYN hydrological model to simulate future river flows across 698 UK catchments under 2 °C and 4 °C global warming scenarios. Compared to previous UK-wide assessments, this study provides the most extensive high-resolution, bias-corrected, ensemble-based analysis of river flow responses under warming-level-specific timeframes. A comprehensive suite of hydrometeorological metrics is applied, including the maximum number of consecutive dry days, extreme precipitation totals, high and low flow percentiles, flood return levels, and the Standardised Precipitation and Streamflow Indices. Results reveal a regionally divergent intensification of extremes of extremes: (1) precipitation extremes intensify under warming, with daily and multi-day rainfall maxima increasing in western and northern regions, while dry spells lengthen in the south and east; and (2) high flows and flood magnitudes increase especially in western and northern regions, while persistent low flows and drought frequency intensify in the south and east. Projections also indicate a growing incidence of hydroclimatic whiplash, abrupt shifts between wet and dry extremes, posing challenges for water resources management. This is the first national-scale UK study to quantify hydrological whiplash across a full climate ensemble. These findings highlight the urgent need for regionally tailored, climate-resilient water management strategies to address the compounding risks of flooding, drought, and increased hydroclimatic volatility under future warming.},

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@article{abff7d5e6fd24548928b04df5318aad6,

title = {Food Systems Literacy in Indigenous Health and Nutrition},

author = {Nitya Rao and Helene Binesse},

issn = {2662-1355},

year  = {2026},

date = {2026-06-13},

journal = {Nature Food},

publisher = {Nature Publishing Group},

abstract = {Indigenous and traditional knowledge and practices have been acknowledged as offering potential solutions to the triple crises of climate change, biodiversity loss and poor health and nutrition. Yet, top-down, medicalised approaches dominate health and nutrition education and practice. Based on 39 peer-reviewed studies, this systematic review explores why this is the case and how it might change by strengthening food systems literacy – the knowledge, skills and communicative practices through which people engage with food systems. It also examines the role of different worldviews and forms of knowledge production to highlight the challenges and good practices embedded in selected interventions with Indigenous communities. The studies included here encompass various communicative and learning practices, institutions and interventions around health and nutrition with Indigenous communities across regions. They offer insights into how culturally grounded, participatory approaches can advance food systems literacy and support pathways towards more sustainable, resilient, equitable and healthier food systems.},

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}