Tyndall Centre Publications

@article{1728,

title = {Spatial variations of sea-level rise and impacts: An application of DIVA},

author = {Sally Brown and Robert J Nicholls and Jason A Lowe and Jochen Hinkel},

doi = {DOI: 10.1007/s10584-013-0925-y},

year  = {2016},

date = {2016-01-01},

abstract = {<p>Due to complexities of creating sea-level rise scenarios, impacts of climate-induced sea-level rise are often produced from a limited number of models assuming a global uniform rise in sea level. A greater number of models, including those with a pattern reflecting regional variations would help to assure reliability and a range of projections, indicating where models agree and disagree. This paper determines how nine new patterned-scaled sea-level rise scenarios (plus the uniform and patterned ensemble mean rises) influence global and regional coastal impacts (wetland loss, dry land loss due to erosion and the expected number of people flooded per year by extreme sea levels). The DIVA coastal impacts model was used under an A1B scenario, and assumed defences were not upgraded as conditions evolved. For seven out of nine climate models, impacts occurred at a proportional rate to global sea-level rise. For the remaining two models, higher than average rise in sea level was projected in northern latitudes or around populated coasts thus skewing global impact projections compared with the ensemble global mean. Regional variability in impacts were compared using the ensemble mean uniform and patterned scenarios: The largest relative difference in impacts occurred around the Mediterranean coast, and the largest absolute differences around low-lying populated coasts, such as south, south-east and east Asia. Uniform projections of sea-level rise impacts remain a useful method to determine global impacts, but improved regional scale models of sea-level rise, particularly around semi-enclosed seas and densely populated low-lying coasts will provide improved regional impact projections and a characterisation of their uncertainties.</p>},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{990b,

title = {The impacts of climate change across the globe: a multi-sectoral assessment},

author = {JA Lowe and TM Osborne and GA Rose and P Zelazowski and TJ Osborn and TR Wheeler and B Lloyd-Hughes and P Smith and R J Nicholls and N A Arnell and S Brown and SN Gosling and P Gottschalk and J Hinkel and C Huntingford},

url = {http://eprints.soton.ac.uk/id/eprint/371828},

year  = {2014},

date = {2014-01-01},

journal = {Climatic Change},

abstract = {<p>The overall global-scale consequences of climate change are dependent on the distribution of impacts across regions, and there are multiple dimensions to these impacts. This paper presents a global assessment of the potential impacts of climate change across several sectors, using a harmonised set of impacts models forced by the same climate andsocio-economic scenarios. Indicators of impact cover the water resources, river and coastal flooding, agriculture, natural environment and built environment sectors. Impacts are assessed under four SRES socio-economic and emissions scenarios, and the effects of uncertainty in the projected pattern of climate change are incorporated by constructing climate scenarios from 21 global climate models. There is considerable uncertainty in projected regional impacts across the climate model scenarios, and coherent assessments of impacts across sectors and regions therefore must be based on each model pattern separately; using ensemble means, for example, reduces variability between sectors and indicators. An example narrative assessment is presented in the paper. Under this narrative approximately 1 billion people would be exposed to increased water resources stress, around 450 million people exposed to increased river flooding, and 1.3 million extra people would be flooded in coastal floods each year. Crop productivity would fall in most regions, and residential energy demands would be reduced in most regions because reduced heating demands would offset higher cooling demands. Most of the global impacts on water stress and flooding would be in Asia, but the proportional impacts in the Middle East North Africa region would be larger. By 2050 there are emerging differences in impact between different emissions and socio-economic scenarios even though the changes in temperature and sea level are similar, and these differences are greater in 2080. However, for all the indicators, the range in projected impacts between different climate models is considerably greater than the range between emissions and socio-economic scenarios.</p>},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{c9a2aff9a5a947abb635ac63de7f7fd0,

title = {Stratospheric modulation of the Boreal response to Pliocene tropical Pacific sea surface temperatures},

author = {Manoj Joshi and Christopher Brierley},

doi = {10.1016/j.epsl.2013.01.015},

issn = {0012-821X},

year  = {2013},

date = {2013-03-01},

journal = {Earth and Planetary Science Letters},

volume = {365},

pages = {1–6},

publisher = {Elsevier},

abstract = {Variations in the sea surface temperature of the Eastern Equatorial Pacific, usually associated with the El Niño Southern Oscillation, have a global impact. Previous work has shown that the stratosphere modulates the Northern Hemisphere response to these temperature anomalies. Here, we show that the stratosphere also plays a major role in modulating the response to tropical sea surface temperature anomalies representative of the mean state of the Pliocene era, approximately four million years ago. Key to the response is a predominance of sudden stratospheric warmings during boreal winter, which cause a large anomalous surface pressure response over the North Atlantic Ocean. The stratospheric modulation results in relatively cold winter/spring Eurasian surface temperatures and relatively warm surface temperatures in Greenland and North America. The implications of these results for simulating and understanding the climate of the Pliocene era are discussed.},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{535b,

title = {Spatial variations of sea-level rise and impacts: An application of DIVA},

author = {S Brown and R J Nicholls and J Lowe and J Hinkel},

year  = {2013},

date = {2013-01-01},

journal = {Climatic Change},

pages = {1-14},

chapter = {1},

abstract = {<p>Due to complexities of creating sea-level rise scenarios, impacts of climate-induced sea-level rise are often produced from a limited number of models assuming a global uniform rise in sea level. A greater number of models, including those with a pattern reflecting regional variations would help to assure reliability and a range of projections, indicating where models agree and disagree. This paper determines how nine new patterned-scaled sea-level rise scenarios (plus the uniform and patterned ensemble mean rises) influence global and regional coastal impacts (wetland loss, dry land loss due to erosion and the expected number of people flooded per year by extreme sea levels). The DIVA coastal impacts model was used under an A1B scenario, and assumed defences were not upgraded as conditions evolved. For seven out of nine climate models, impacts occurred at a proportional rate to global sea-level rise. For the remaining two models, higher than average rise in sea level was projected in northern latitudes or around populated coasts thus skewing global impact projections compared with the ensemble global mean. Regional variability in impacts were compared using the ensemble mean uniform and patterned scenarios: The largest relative difference in impacts occurred around the Mediterranean coast, and the largest absolute differences around low-lying populated coasts, such as south, south-east and east Asia. Uniform projections of sea-level rise impacts remain a useful method to determine global impacts, but improved regional scale models of sea-level rise, particularly around semi-enclosed seas and densely populated low-lying coasts will provide improved regional impact projections and a characterisation of their uncertainties. © 2013 Springer Science+Business Media Dordrecht.</p>},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}

@article{1108,

title = {Analysis of global impacts of sea-level rise: A case study of flooding},

author = {R J Nicholls},

year  = {2002},

date = {2002-01-01},

journal = {Physics and Chemistry of the Earth},

volume = {27},

pages = {1455-1466},

chapter = {1455},

keywords = {},

pubstate = {published},

tppubtype = {article}

}